These European systems are clearly designed to prevent any rapid change in government. This is a problem when all of your nations are sailing off a cliff. There appears to be no mechanism to reverse course before the demographic time bomb detonates and dooms western Europe forever. And because the imported hordes are overwhelmingly barbaric and violent, war will inevitably follow this replacement.
Yeah. Our two party system blows, but at least it's got less mechanisms in place to prevent actual populism. It's hilarious that the left worships 'the voice of the people,' but also hates populism.
Our two party is really the only thing that prevents the Left from basically controlling everything forever, unlike almost every other Western nation. In the same way any forum that isn't "explicitly right wing" will always become Left, so will any political party.
When it fails, it fails us massively. But its existence is what allows us a "we're so back" moment like we have, instead of these gradual changes that the Left can just seize and control.
In the same way any forum that isn't "explicitly right wing" will always become Left, so will any political party.
Reddit was right wing for 4 months until they literally redid the algorithm to hide posts from conservative subreddits, later banning them. Any uncensored platform leans right.
you also forgot that women can vote now which is half the population and most of them will vote left even if the person their voting for can and will kill them
In what way have the ostensible advantages of the European system actually materialized in favor of conservatism or nationalism? Because to my eyes, every “feature” of European government that is currently resisting populism did nothing when it was time to resist globalism.
In what way have the ostensible advantages of the European system actually materialized in favor of conservatism or nationalism?
I actually think the American system produces more gridlock. More gridlock is to the advantage of conservatism and nationalism. I mean flipside in that if you're able to weaponize a party to have a chance of fixing the country, it's also possible to weaponize a party to wreck the country.
I'm by no means arguing that the European system is better. I really don't know. And we're in such a deep mess and malaise, from which I see no way out, that it would be stupid to make that argument. I can see some small advantages.
A more fragmented system leads to more infighting within the establishment. That is part of the reason the current German government was ineffective and so hated.
Politics are less polarized and allowed some center and even center-left governments to crack down on immigration. I'm not sure the Democrats could do that.
There is an outlet for the anti-woke (BSW) and anti-war left (BSW, Left). Flipside is that there is also an outlet for the pro-war right (CDU).
Immigration has been a major electoral issue for over 40 years here in the states and still isn't fixed. It is extremely unlikely to be fixed by the current GOP (despite them having a mandate to do so), and our system is extremely effective at keeping third parties, who might sincerely want to fix it unlike the GOP, out of power. It's baffling to me that anyone thinks it's effective.
Yep. In Obama's first term, the Dems had the House, Senate and Executive. And they didn't waste one second taking full advantage of it. And I don't recall any judges slowing them down, even when it should have been a legal no-brainer to do so.
please, man, can you stop being delusional for one moment? whoever "we" is hasn't done a single thing. all you're watching is a zionist trying desperately to keep people like you from actually enacting any change. "we" is currently being tricked into inaction by a man trying to get the US into palestine to hand it over to israel while importing all the palestinians straight into America and Europe.
trump doesn't have a chance of doing something he doesn't want to do. you have that chance, and the more you lay down and think some jews will save you, the lesser that chance becomes.
These European systems are clearly designed to prevent any rapid change in government.
Which I'm normally in favor of. But they're doing it at the wrong end. You want government to be slow, but the people to be able to have a voice of who gets into government, and who is in power. This nonsense just stomps out actual representation.
Managed Democracy is even faker and gayer than normal Democracy.
The European systems in general are designed to prevent any kind of rapid change (especially towards success and prosperity) not just in government, but in everyday life of its citizens. Good luck accomplishing anything through the endless bureaucracy, penalties, regulations, taxes.
I was hoping that the recent spate of migrant stabbings and Cars of Peace would lead to an overperformance by the AfD. Turns out that they are underperforming, although they have gained about a point compared to the first exit poll.
BSW (left-wing populist, anti-woke, anti-war) appeared to get 4.9% and thus waste all its votes - but it's looking better now. Some on the German right hate BSW because they think that it takes votes away from the AfD, but looking at the whole picture, I find that very unlikely.
The winner CDU has positioned itself as tough on immigration. They are the party of that old witch Merkel, and some party members have broken with its immigration hawk leader recently. Let's see what happens.
It's very difficult to 'control dissent' against 20% of the population. It won't stop them from trying, but banning parties or persecuting people only works when already existing support is very small. All they'll accomplish is to embitter people even more and turn them completely against the state.
Only maybe 2-3%. If you expected more than 25% for the AfD you are delusional.
Some on the German right hate BSW because they think that it takes votes away from the AfD, but looking at the whole picture, I find that very unlikely.
You are right. Most polls (from a few months ago, was last I saw news about it) indicated that BSW voters didn't come from the AfD.
The winner CDU has positioned itself as tough on immigration
While not prejudging any graphic, you can make any two parties look identical by being selective.
The Union has at least promised to crack down on immigration. Either they will, or they won't. If they do, so much the better. If they don't, their disappointed voters can move over to the AfD, as the so called mainstream clearly offered no solutions.
To be honest I kinda expected this as there was the misinformation spread they were going to stomp to lull those on the fence of AfD into complacency and spun the CDU voters to turn out (kinda like the 'Red Wave' in US mid-terms)
That being said they still took second by a large margin and despite EVERY attempt to block them from power, they'll have better opportunities as sure, you stopped 'the rise of the AfD', great, now YOU'RE in charge of negotiating with Trump.
So much of politics is about 'expectations'. Trump was a juggernaut not because he won big, but because it ran so contrary to both expectations and everything they tried to do to him.
That said, their relief at the AfD underperforming by 1-2% will dissipate very quickly if these results hold and it is very, very hard to create a coalition without them. They will succeed, but the coalition will be unstable and people will be dissatisfied with it - they won't be able to get anything done, nor will they be able to pass the policies that are necessary. It's a good launching pad for the next election for the AfD.
I meant more you stopped them gaining office....this time.
But the fact remains that WHOEVER is in office not only has to deal with the domestic issues (or constantly trying to suppress it being raised domestically in this case) but ALSO has to deal with Trump and his team and that war on two fronts I think will cripple a lot of European institutions that still try to push a globalist agenda as Europe hasn't got the money on hand to fill the gap as the US turns off the slush funds.
The past election had them at a historic low. But yes, they have had a rise in the past few weeks, which is partly why the (much better) BSW is at risk of falling under the electoral threshold.
It seems that ARD and ZDF disagree slightly, but with major consequences for this party. ARD was already projecting 4.9% when I saw it, but the ZDF one was slightly more recent.
Even with BSW in, CDU-SPD would have enough IMHO. Sure, it's just short of the majority but what are the odds the far left Greens and Linke would ever vote with the AfD? I also cannot imagine a coalition of CDU-SPD-Greens/Linke would last. That'd be political suicide for the CDU. Maybe CDU-SPD-BSW. Don't know if the CDU would consider that or if the BSW would.
Even with BSW in, CDU-SPD would have enough IMHO. Sure, it's just short of the majority but what are the odds the far left Greens and Linke would ever vote with the AfD?
I hope you're not too discouraged. They'll do whatever is in their interests, and if that requires voting alongside the AFD on no confidence, they'll do it. "We can't let our position on issues be determined by these NAZIS" they'll say.
I have a hard time imagining a situation where that would come up.
Looking at the CDU's actions whenever they're in power (whether that's back under Merkel or to this day in multiple state governments) they're almost completely aligned with the far left. Actions speak louder than Merz' empty words.
Plus, they would have to appease the SPD who are barely any less extreme than the other far left parties.
"We can't let our position on issues be determined by these NAZIS" they'll say.
Nah. (Okay my example is SPD, but...)
SPD didn't push to vote (something they wanted to push through), cause they feared random votes of the AfD tipping the scales to a "wIn"
"Die Initiatorinnen teilten im Anschluss an die Anhörung mit, sie strebten eine Abstimmung "nur mit einer klaren demokratischen Mehrheit" an. Ohne Unterstützung von Union und FDP riskiere man eine Zufallsmehrheit mit Stimmen der AfD. "Diese rote Linie überschreiten wir nicht", sagte die SPD-Abgeordnete Carmen Wegge." src
For those that are keeping score at home "Center-right" in Germany means the same people working the puppet strings on the current ruling party (SPD) are working their strings as well.
Things that would never happen in any western nation without a large percent of population being non-White….and they probably still rig the elections regardless.
AFD: somewhat libertarian, socially conservative and anti-mass immigration. Also increasingly Euroskeptic. The only party worth voting for.
"Union" is the CDU/CSU. Basically European "center-right" pro-globalist, pro-mass immigration, pro-EU but might lower your taxes a bit. The CSU or Christian Social Union is the Bavarian regional version of the same national party, but tends to be a bit more conservative.
FDP are the Free Democrats: Neoliberal, pro-corporate, pro-free trade, open-borders and rabidly pro-EU. Socially also very liberal.
The SPD are your typical European Social Democrats, very pro-immigration, welfare-state-loving Eurocrats.
The Greens are the usual eco-commies.
The Left is basically a holdover from the GDR. Their main support base is still in the former East German states and they are unabashedly communist.
The BSW split off from the left, but still favors all the same commie policies, except that they also pretend to be Euroskeptic and anti-mass immigration. It seems pretty obvious at this point that the BSW was entirely astroturfed. More and more people in the industrial cities in East Germany were abandoning the Left party for the AFD, which the globalist establishment viewed as a much bigger threat, so they manufactured a schism in the Left party to try to siphon some of those working class votes from the AFD to the BSW, and there was a massive media manipulation campaign aimed at convincing people that the establishment were just as afraid of the BSW as they were of the AFD.
But then the BSW won seats in several state elections this past fall, and immediately ruled out governing with the AFD in favor of forming coalitions with the mainstream parties. That's what began their downward slide in the polls, as their voters immediately recognized that they'd been duped. The Left surge at the BSW's expense in the very late stage of this election campaign happened basically because the media and the pollsters effectively gave up on trying to astroturf the BSW after the AFD's poll numbers went back up to where they were before the BSW formed.
The gray column is the "Others." There are some regional ethnic parties mixed up in that, but also the Values Union, which is a group that was expelled from the CDU for being too based, but which might have been another last-ditch astroturfing effort to attract votes away from the AFD.
I think there's good reason to predict the actual AfD vote will be higher - this is 20.5% who are willing to publicly declare their opposition to a regime that openly persecutes AfD and their supporters - but unless they end up with 51% of the vote everyone else is going to conspire to continue betraying Germany.
Unfortunately, this was the exit poll adjusted for actual vote counts. As you said, the exit poll was lower, but that may also be because its support is far greater in rural areas rather than big cities where it's more difficult to exit poll.
But it appears that the AfD has risen to 20.8%. Only a little bit disappointing as opposed to the relative gut punch that 19.5% was to me.
These European systems are clearly designed to prevent any rapid change in government. This is a problem when all of your nations are sailing off a cliff. There appears to be no mechanism to reverse course before the demographic time bomb detonates and dooms western Europe forever. And because the imported hordes are overwhelmingly barbaric and violent, war will inevitably follow this replacement.
The two party system has its benefits. We were able to weaponize one party to at least have a chance at fixing the country.
Yeah. Our two party system blows, but at least it's got less mechanisms in place to prevent actual populism. It's hilarious that the left worships 'the voice of the people,' but also hates populism.
Our two party is really the only thing that prevents the Left from basically controlling everything forever, unlike almost every other Western nation. In the same way any forum that isn't "explicitly right wing" will always become Left, so will any political party.
When it fails, it fails us massively. But its existence is what allows us a "we're so back" moment like we have, instead of these gradual changes that the Left can just seize and control.
Reddit was right wing for 4 months until they literally redid the algorithm to hide posts from conservative subreddits, later banning them. Any uncensored platform leans right.
And any unfraudulent election leans right.
For thousands of years all civilization were what we would consider far far right by today's standards.
Suddenly we're supposed to believe that these things are 50/50? Like human nature changed in mass?
Not a chance.
you also forgot that women can vote now which is half the population and most of them will vote left even if the person their voting for can and will kill them
Ah, that is correct and I did overlook that. My mistake.
To be fair we live in a time with peak low testosterone levels and a very high median age. Death not being an everyday concern has made people soft.
Hmmmmm. Good point.
Point taken, but that has its flipside.
In what way have the ostensible advantages of the European system actually materialized in favor of conservatism or nationalism? Because to my eyes, every “feature” of European government that is currently resisting populism did nothing when it was time to resist globalism.
I actually think the American system produces more gridlock. More gridlock is to the advantage of conservatism and nationalism. I mean flipside in that if you're able to weaponize a party to have a chance of fixing the country, it's also possible to weaponize a party to wreck the country.
I'm by no means arguing that the European system is better. I really don't know. And we're in such a deep mess and malaise, from which I see no way out, that it would be stupid to make that argument. I can see some small advantages.
Immigration has been a major electoral issue for over 40 years here in the states and still isn't fixed. It is extremely unlikely to be fixed by the current GOP (despite them having a mandate to do so), and our system is extremely effective at keeping third parties, who might sincerely want to fix it unlike the GOP, out of power. It's baffling to me that anyone thinks it's effective.
The US system is also effective at resisting populism. Even with Trump winning again with two houses of Congress, immigration is still not fixed.
Yep. In Obama's first term, the Dems had the House, Senate and Executive. And they didn't waste one second taking full advantage of it. And I don't recall any judges slowing them down, even when it should have been a legal no-brainer to do so.
please, man, can you stop being delusional for one moment? whoever "we" is hasn't done a single thing. all you're watching is a zionist trying desperately to keep people like you from actually enacting any change. "we" is currently being tricked into inaction by a man trying to get the US into palestine to hand it over to israel while importing all the palestinians straight into America and Europe.
trump doesn't have a chance of doing something he doesn't want to do. you have that chance, and the more you lay down and think some jews will save you, the lesser that chance becomes.
Which I'm normally in favor of. But they're doing it at the wrong end. You want government to be slow, but the people to be able to have a voice of who gets into government, and who is in power. This nonsense just stomps out actual representation.
Managed Democracy is even faker and gayer than normal Democracy.
yeah, the behavior of these election systems is actually making me like First Past The Post more because it actually forces political change.
They're literally just here for money, stop giving them money and most of them will leave. The rest can be deported.
Also doubtful. Same as above, most will willingly leave.
Any real resistance will be from their parent countries not wanting them back.
The European systems in general are designed to prevent any kind of rapid change (especially towards success and prosperity) not just in government, but in everyday life of its citizens. Good luck accomplishing anything through the endless bureaucracy, penalties, regulations, taxes.
So it'll be business as usual. The Merkel party will form a coalition with the socialists and nothing is going to change.
I was hoping that the recent spate of migrant stabbings and Cars of Peace would lead to an overperformance by the AfD. Turns out that they are underperforming, although they have gained about a point compared to the first exit poll.
BSW (left-wing populist, anti-woke, anti-war) appeared to get 4.9% and thus waste all its votes - but it's looking better now. Some on the German right hate BSW because they think that it takes votes away from the AfD, but looking at the whole picture, I find that very unlikely.
The winner CDU has positioned itself as tough on immigration. They are the party of that old witch Merkel, and some party members have broken with its immigration hawk leader recently. Let's see what happens.
It's very difficult to 'control dissent' against 20% of the population. It won't stop them from trying, but banning parties or persecuting people only works when already existing support is very small. All they'll accomplish is to embitter people even more and turn them completely against the state.
Signal right, turn left. If they actually cared they would collaborate with the Afd.
SureJan.jif
Only maybe 2-3%. If you expected more than 25% for the AfD you are delusional.
You are right. Most polls (from a few months ago, was last I saw news about it) indicated that BSW voters didn't come from the AfD.
They won't do shit.
There was a graphic on Patriots that seemed to indicate Union has almost the same policy positions as the left wing SPD and Greens.
This is from analysing the wahl-o-mat answers (img stolen by me):
CDU is 42%/46% overlap with Greens/SPD.
obviously it's a bit flawed due to how the wahl-o-mat works.
While not prejudging any graphic, you can make any two parties look identical by being selective.
The Union has at least promised to crack down on immigration. Either they will, or they won't. If they do, so much the better. If they don't, their disappointed voters can move over to the AfD, as the so called mainstream clearly offered no solutions.
Well, that's what everyone knew was going to happen for months.
CDU/CSU is far, far to the left of 1980s Soviet communists.
Yeah, that'll happen when workers shred ballots.
To be honest I kinda expected this as there was the misinformation spread they were going to stomp to lull those on the fence of AfD into complacency and spun the CDU voters to turn out (kinda like the 'Red Wave' in US mid-terms)
That being said they still took second by a large margin and despite EVERY attempt to block them from power, they'll have better opportunities as sure, you stopped 'the rise of the AfD', great, now YOU'RE in charge of negotiating with Trump.
Good luck lol..
I don't know, looks pretty rise-y to me.
So much of politics is about 'expectations'. Trump was a juggernaut not because he won big, but because it ran so contrary to both expectations and everything they tried to do to him.
That said, their relief at the AfD underperforming by 1-2% will dissipate very quickly if these results hold and it is very, very hard to create a coalition without them. They will succeed, but the coalition will be unstable and people will be dissatisfied with it - they won't be able to get anything done, nor will they be able to pass the policies that are necessary. It's a good launching pad for the next election for the AfD.
I meant more you stopped them gaining office....this time.
But the fact remains that WHOEVER is in office not only has to deal with the domestic issues (or constantly trying to suppress it being raised domestically in this case) but ALSO has to deal with Trump and his team and that war on two fronts I think will cripple a lot of European institutions that still try to push a globalist agenda as Europe hasn't got the money on hand to fill the gap as the US turns off the slush funds.
Is Linke really up 3.8? I thought they were getting crushed. I guess their strongholds hadn't been counted yet, or something.
Young urban women (18-25) voted 34% linke and 23% green. They are retarded.
The past election had them at a historic low. But yes, they have had a rise in the past few weeks, which is partly why the (much better) BSW is at risk of falling under the electoral threshold.
A slightly more recent projection has BSW at 4,9%: https://assets.jungefreiheit.de/2025/02/WhatsApp-Image-2025-02-23-at-21.37.41.jpeg
It seems that ARD and ZDF disagree slightly, but with major consequences for this party. ARD was already projecting 4.9% when I saw it, but the ZDF one was slightly more recent.
As of 21:46, it's still at 5% according to ZDF - and thus probably making CDU-SPD impossible if it holds.
Yea, guess we'll see tomorrow.
Even with BSW in, CDU-SPD would have enough IMHO. Sure, it's just short of the majority but what are the odds the far left Greens and Linke would ever vote with the AfD? I also cannot imagine a coalition of CDU-SPD-Greens/Linke would last. That'd be political suicide for the CDU. Maybe CDU-SPD-BSW. Don't know if the CDU would consider that or if the BSW would.
I hope you're not too discouraged. They'll do whatever is in their interests, and if that requires voting alongside the AFD on no confidence, they'll do it. "We can't let our position on issues be determined by these NAZIS" they'll say.
I have a hard time imagining a situation where that would come up.
Looking at the CDU's actions whenever they're in power (whether that's back under Merkel or to this day in multiple state governments) they're almost completely aligned with the far left. Actions speak louder than Merz' empty words.
Plus, they would have to appease the SPD who are barely any less extreme than the other far left parties.
Nah. (Okay my example is SPD, but...)
SPD didn't push to vote (something they wanted to push through), cause they feared random votes of the AfD tipping the scales to a "wIn"
"Die Initiatorinnen teilten im Anschluss an die Anhörung mit, sie strebten eine Abstimmung "nur mit einer klaren demokratischen Mehrheit" an. Ohne Unterstützung von Union und FDP riskiere man eine Zufallsmehrheit mit Stimmen der AfD. "Diese rote Linie überschreiten wir nicht", sagte die SPD-Abgeordnete Carmen Wegge." src
So nothing will change
Euro fags need to learn that any small move to the political right of social democrat is not nazism.
For those that are keeping score at home "Center-right" in Germany means the same people working the puppet strings on the current ruling party (SPD) are working their strings as well.
They always have a fall back plan.
Things that would never happen in any western nation without a large percent of population being non-White….and they probably still rig the elections regardless.
Are these parties arranged across a "spectrum" are the Linke, BSW and SONST parties right of AfD politically or just on the graph?
From right to left:
AFD: somewhat libertarian, socially conservative and anti-mass immigration. Also increasingly Euroskeptic. The only party worth voting for.
"Union" is the CDU/CSU. Basically European "center-right" pro-globalist, pro-mass immigration, pro-EU but might lower your taxes a bit. The CSU or Christian Social Union is the Bavarian regional version of the same national party, but tends to be a bit more conservative.
FDP are the Free Democrats: Neoliberal, pro-corporate, pro-free trade, open-borders and rabidly pro-EU. Socially also very liberal.
The SPD are your typical European Social Democrats, very pro-immigration, welfare-state-loving Eurocrats.
The Greens are the usual eco-commies.
The Left is basically a holdover from the GDR. Their main support base is still in the former East German states and they are unabashedly communist.
The BSW split off from the left, but still favors all the same commie policies, except that they also pretend to be Euroskeptic and anti-mass immigration. It seems pretty obvious at this point that the BSW was entirely astroturfed. More and more people in the industrial cities in East Germany were abandoning the Left party for the AFD, which the globalist establishment viewed as a much bigger threat, so they manufactured a schism in the Left party to try to siphon some of those working class votes from the AFD to the BSW, and there was a massive media manipulation campaign aimed at convincing people that the establishment were just as afraid of the BSW as they were of the AFD.
But then the BSW won seats in several state elections this past fall, and immediately ruled out governing with the AFD in favor of forming coalitions with the mainstream parties. That's what began their downward slide in the polls, as their voters immediately recognized that they'd been duped. The Left surge at the BSW's expense in the very late stage of this election campaign happened basically because the media and the pollsters effectively gave up on trying to astroturf the BSW after the AFD's poll numbers went back up to where they were before the BSW formed.
The gray column is the "Others." There are some regional ethnic parties mixed up in that, but also the Values Union, which is a group that was expelled from the CDU for being too based, but which might have been another last-ditch astroturfing effort to attract votes away from the AFD.
It's sorted on size in the previous election. The AfD is most 'right' in both senses.
I think there's good reason to predict the actual AfD vote will be higher - this is 20.5% who are willing to publicly declare their opposition to a regime that openly persecutes AfD and their supporters - but unless they end up with 51% of the vote everyone else is going to conspire to continue betraying Germany.
Unfortunately, this was the exit poll adjusted for actual vote counts. As you said, the exit poll was lower, but that may also be because its support is far greater in rural areas rather than big cities where it's more difficult to exit poll.
But it appears that the AfD has risen to 20.8%. Only a little bit disappointing as opposed to the relative gut punch that 19.5% was to me.