Smart white guys are going to be wary of people asking them nosy questions at exit polls, and given the violence against Trump supporters and white males, I'd lie my ass off, too.
im pretty sure the women who say that trump is "crazy racist sexist" etc. would already have been saying that in 2016. it wasn't as if 2016 didn't already have all those accusations been layered on trump.
65+ went Biden +1.5. I saw this with my in-laws, only ever watch the nightly news and was spoon fed a steady diet of Orange Man Bad for 4 years followed by "COVID's going to kill you". It had an effect.
I think they do. My effort post was basically all about non-college educated white men. I was under the impression that Trump would gain with them. Instead the opposite happened. That actually tells me exactly why this race is so much closer than it is. It's also why Biden was focusing so hard on the midwest.
I think that's just your sect of white nationalists. Most white people don't care if Trump panders to blacks, and if suburban white women are anything to go by, they actually favor it.
Even normal MAGABoomers are put off by just how hard Trump has been pandering to blacks. You literally just made a post the other day about whites overwhelmingly coming out for Trump. That's because whites saw Trump actually caring about their interests.
Over the past month or two Trump moved away from appealing to whites and it shows.
I've been saying this over and over for months: blacks aren't gonna show up to win Trump the election. He needs to show whites he cares about them. 500 billion extra welfare to blacks does the opposite, no matter how much "DEMOCRATS R THE REAL RACSIS" shitposting they do.
I know what I've been saying and it was that blacks voting for Trump wouldn't have any significant effect except to break part of the Democratic coalition. Instead I've said that white non-college educated Americans are way more significant.
What we're disagreeing on is what you think white interests are. You want him to pander to white identitarianism, and that has (and continues) to be a terrible idea because the vast and sweeping majority of whites abandoned white identitarianism starting around 60 years ago.
You could argue that maybe Trump hurt the midwestern rural white farmers with the trade war with China (as the Left does), but I don't see that in the fact that significant portions of midwestern rural counties are all blood red.
Looking back at what the exit polls are showing, and comparing it to the data I still have from my earlier post, it looks to me that both parties gained many millions of white voters, except Biden basically gained all of the 3rd party white voters that the Democrats had lost almost a decade ago.
Fundamentally you're arguing that Trump lost white voters. He didn't. He just gained fewer white voters than what the Democrats recalled. He gained over a million white voters in 2016, it looks like he'll have gained almost more than 5 million this year. The problem is that the Democratic establishment sucked back in about 10 million white votes, a huge swath of that from Leftists that had walked away from the party.
If they were all white identitarians like Richard Spencer who endorsed Biden, it would make sense. Frankly, I don't think there's that many white identitarians to account for the change.
That's just because they want to hold onto the argument that they are the real conservatives. Spencer knows that Institutional Racialism is the best way to get a white identiarian movement going and the Democrats are literally building it into the financial & legal system.
Looks like I have to eat my foot and find out how the hell that happened.
Given the significant numbers of votes, I seriously doubt that Trump lost white non-college men. However, that would suggest therefore that Biden gained more instead.
As for why, I barely have any idea. One thing it suggests to me is that the establishment must have pulled out all the stops to get all their old non-college white male voters back. They must have activated inactive white voters than Trump did.
In terms of answering your question, Gizortnik, I think the simple answer is a combination of inducing fears of Covid, increasing TDS using the mainstream media propaganda along with a large serving of blatantly open voter fraud in key states such as Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada.
No, worse than that, it would have been the progressives, greens, etc.
Jo Jorgenson did us all a favor by going "Libertarian Socialist" and pulling votes from Biden. If she hadn't have done that, it would be significantly worse.
If you didn't know (I had to look up myself to confirm) the SALT deduction is the State and Local Tax deduction on federal income tax. It's to allow you to deduct state income tax and/or sales taxes paid, and therefore pay less federal tax to the IRS.
For someone like myself in Texas, capping it did practically nothing as I have no state income tax and the sales tax deduction doesn't get anywhere close to $10k. I didn't even notice.
But, for someone in a high tax coastal state, before they may pay $13k to the State of California in income tax, but can now only deduct $10k. If this person is in the 24% tax bracket, they now owe $720 more to the IRS than before the cap.
Okay, I think I figured out what happened. I don't have the full numbers yet, but looking at the exit polls, I was right to focus on non-college whites so much. I didn't think he would lose them... and he didn't.
However, white voters accounted for almost the entirety of all third party votes.
If my suspicions are anywhere in the ballpark, there should probably have been 12 million more white voters in 2020 from 2016. Trump gained about 6 million more white voters than he did in 2016... but Biden might have gained 10 million more white voters. That would be around 6 or so from the new white voters, and 4 from 3rd party voters who decided to go back to the establishment.
I suspected that the establishment had power, but this really shows just how much power they have over the Left. The Dems let the Leftists burn cities to make sure they voted for Biden, rather than confront their violence... and they did. A lot of Leftists who hated Hillary and the Democratic establishment went back to the establishment because Orange Man Bad.
This is gonna be a much longer war than I thought.
Oh, and if my math is right Trump will lose the popular vote, but win the electoral vote (again), but he'll have lost Wisconsin. These candidates are absolutely right not to stop counting votes, because we're probably looking at 75 million to 72 million Biden-Trump, with Trump still winning.
This is the reason I don't like TheImpossible's narrow focus. Most modern men are just as bad as modern women. There may of been a time in the past where many men were strong, but we're well beyond that point now. Humans in general are useless weaklings as it stands.
Yes, but here's the thing - most modern men are feminine and that's why they're useless. They're not acting like men, they're acting like women because they're broken.
Trump is an alpha male asshole. Women will curse men like that until the day they die, but their panties are still soaked from it.
Biden is a supplicating beta, whose entire platform has been submitting to women's whims. Women feel instinctual disgust at men like that, even if they outwardly say they crave and love it.
In the ballot box, nobody will ever know what you said.
Often times, the most attractive candidate will do better among women after the major factors are accounted for. It won't just magically swing huge percentages, but its a powerful force that can make a difference.
As in, Dems will still get most of the black vote, but uglier Dems might cost them 5% of the black female vote. Small, but notable.
well there also could be more conservative women than social media would have you believe. But unfortunately the more hysterical liberal ones tend to drown them out with how loud and obnoxious they are.
Also true, but uglier Right men also would fail the same test. People like Obama and Trudeau owe a lot of their success to the same effects, because they were young attractive men relative to their opponent.
My Cousin is big into horses, which is a rich person's game. Something she noted about millennial, and now Gen Z, women around the barns was how many of them had black boyfriends. And the reason she surmised was that the black guys still acted macho and like Men. These women didn't want Karl the Soy Latte drinking cuck.
Its the eternal curse of women to consciously create the men that their subconscious is repulsed by. It was an obvious enough problem that the South Park episode about Metrosexuals pointed it out, and its still true today.
Mail-in ballots and betas don't mix. There are a few cucks that told me their wife was watching them vote at the table, so of course they had to vote Biden.
Smart white guys are going to be wary of people asking them nosy questions at exit polls, and given the violence against Trump supporters and white males, I'd lie my ass off, too.
This. You don't know what kind of TDS-addled psycho is listening.
New Hampshire looks like that too.
What's the sentiment there that might have been causing it?
Mail-in ballots let Karen watch her beta vote. Cucks gonna cuck.
No, I think I figured it out. The Dems actually rallied all of their old voters who had switched to 3rd party.
im pretty sure the women who say that trump is "crazy racist sexist" etc. would already have been saying that in 2016. it wasn't as if 2016 didn't already have all those accusations been layered on trump.
65+ went Biden +1.5. I saw this with my in-laws, only ever watch the nightly news and was spoon fed a steady diet of Orange Man Bad for 4 years followed by "COVID's going to kill you". It had an effect.
I can believe that, but that's not the proper statistic. >65 had an increase to Biden, but they were still majority Trump.
Do these polls really mean much? Especially with rampant cancel culture, from which white men are the least protected.
I think they do. My effort post was basically all about non-college educated white men. I was under the impression that Trump would gain with them. Instead the opposite happened. That actually tells me exactly why this race is so much closer than it is. It's also why Biden was focusing so hard on the midwest.
Stuff like the platinum plan sits really badly with whites.
Many who supported Trump in 2016 feel betrayed and abandoned by after Trump turned virtually all his focus to minority groups.
Trump will still win but he would have won by HUGE margins if he just appealed to white men instead of endless pandering to joggers and beaners.
I think that's just your sect of white nationalists. Most white people don't care if Trump panders to blacks, and if suburban white women are anything to go by, they actually favor it.
It's not just white nationalists.
Even normal MAGABoomers are put off by just how hard Trump has been pandering to blacks. You literally just made a post the other day about whites overwhelmingly coming out for Trump. That's because whites saw Trump actually caring about their interests.
Over the past month or two Trump moved away from appealing to whites and it shows.
I've been saying this over and over for months: blacks aren't gonna show up to win Trump the election. He needs to show whites he cares about them. 500 billion extra welfare to blacks does the opposite, no matter how much "DEMOCRATS R THE REAL RACSIS" shitposting they do.
I know what I've been saying and it was that blacks voting for Trump wouldn't have any significant effect except to break part of the Democratic coalition. Instead I've said that white non-college educated Americans are way more significant.
What we're disagreeing on is what you think white interests are. You want him to pander to white identitarianism, and that has (and continues) to be a terrible idea because the vast and sweeping majority of whites abandoned white identitarianism starting around 60 years ago.
You could argue that maybe Trump hurt the midwestern rural white farmers with the trade war with China (as the Left does), but I don't see that in the fact that significant portions of midwestern rural counties are all blood red.
Looking back at what the exit polls are showing, and comparing it to the data I still have from my earlier post, it looks to me that both parties gained many millions of white voters, except Biden basically gained all of the 3rd party white voters that the Democrats had lost almost a decade ago.
Fundamentally you're arguing that Trump lost white voters. He didn't. He just gained fewer white voters than what the Democrats recalled. He gained over a million white voters in 2016, it looks like he'll have gained almost more than 5 million this year. The problem is that the Democratic establishment sucked back in about 10 million white votes, a huge swath of that from Leftists that had walked away from the party.
Did those white men simply not vote? Because I don't see how they could vote for Biden just to spite Trump for his minority outreach.
If they were all white identitarians like Richard Spencer who endorsed Biden, it would make sense. Frankly, I don't think there's that many white identitarians to account for the change.
well apparently i heard white identitarians consider Richard spencer to be a grifter or a troll apparently
That's just because they want to hold onto the argument that they are the real conservatives. Spencer knows that Institutional Racialism is the best way to get a white identiarian movement going and the Democrats are literally building it into the financial & legal system.
Those were just the mysoginists who refused to vote for Hilary in 2016 /s
truly the worst nazi ever indeed
At what point can the talking heads in the media accept that there are minorities who like the conservative/republican message?
Never.
I'm sure those same people calling him a nazi,
would call everyone on kia2 a nazi.
Anyone here a nazi?
Killroyomega is probably pretty close.
Yes
Looks like I have to eat my foot and find out how the hell that happened.
Given the significant numbers of votes, I seriously doubt that Trump lost white non-college men. However, that would suggest therefore that Biden gained more instead.
As for why, I barely have any idea. One thing it suggests to me is that the establishment must have pulled out all the stops to get all their old non-college white male voters back. They must have activated inactive white voters than Trump did.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1323975606099464193
I don't think Trump is done yet.
He still has a chance making it back.
In terms of answering your question, Gizortnik, I think the simple answer is a combination of inducing fears of Covid, increasing TDS using the mainstream media propaganda along with a large serving of blatantly open voter fraud in key states such as Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada.
Hilariously, my own argument seems to be correct but I got it backwards.
Applying the new data to what I already have, it appears that the Leftist Civil War is greatly exaggerated, and the Democrats pulled in millions of white 3rd party voters.
Like I said, no one's ready for 10 million white voters. Not even me.
So if Trump does lose in the end, it was fucking "centrist" white third party voters that switched to Biden who cost it for him?
I already despised left leaning "centrists" but this makes me livid.
No, worse than that, it would have been the progressives, greens, etc.
Jo Jorgenson did us all a favor by going "Libertarian Socialist" and pulling votes from Biden. If she hadn't have done that, it would be significantly worse.
New voters probably split 6 million to 6 million
I hadn't heard of this, what is it?
If you didn't know (I had to look up myself to confirm) the SALT deduction is the State and Local Tax deduction on federal income tax. It's to allow you to deduct state income tax and/or sales taxes paid, and therefore pay less federal tax to the IRS.
For someone like myself in Texas, capping it did practically nothing as I have no state income tax and the sales tax deduction doesn't get anywhere close to $10k. I didn't even notice.
But, for someone in a high tax coastal state, before they may pay $13k to the State of California in income tax, but can now only deduct $10k. If this person is in the 24% tax bracket, they now owe $720 more to the IRS than before the cap.
That makes sense.
And property taxes in MI are so bad they split it into 2 payments in the year.
When I saw "SALT", my first thought was "nukes".
Ah, the flat deduction hit you the wrong way. I get it.
Okay, I think I figured out what happened. I don't have the full numbers yet, but looking at the exit polls, I was right to focus on non-college whites so much. I didn't think he would lose them... and he didn't.
However, white voters accounted for almost the entirety of all third party votes.
If my suspicions are anywhere in the ballpark, there should probably have been 12 million more white voters in 2020 from 2016. Trump gained about 6 million more white voters than he did in 2016... but Biden might have gained 10 million more white voters. That would be around 6 or so from the new white voters, and 4 from 3rd party voters who decided to go back to the establishment.
I suspected that the establishment had power, but this really shows just how much power they have over the Left. The Dems let the Leftists burn cities to make sure they voted for Biden, rather than confront their violence... and they did. A lot of Leftists who hated Hillary and the Democratic establishment went back to the establishment because Orange Man Bad.
This is gonna be a much longer war than I thought.
Oh, and if my math is right Trump will lose the popular vote, but win the electoral vote (again), but he'll have lost Wisconsin. These candidates are absolutely right not to stop counting votes, because we're probably looking at 75 million to 72 million Biden-Trump, with Trump still winning.
Now the exit polls are valid... I thought you guys said exit polls weren't accurate?
Oh I remember what I said. I said you're a retarded centrist that should get a rope
Salty aren't you? I'd rather be a centrist than an easily fooled Right Winger like you
I'm not american, fucktard. I told you before. Still kill yourself tho :^)
It's not like zion don would have changed much.
You first bitch
This is why seeing one instinctively fills you with disgust. They will bring ruin to you and those you care about.
you mean disemboweled in the public square as the evenings entertainment
Used as bait for the lion hunt, or as decoys for the inter-tribal raids.
This is the reason I don't like TheImpossible's narrow focus. Most modern men are just as bad as modern women. There may of been a time in the past where many men were strong, but we're well beyond that point now. Humans in general are useless weaklings as it stands.
Yes, but here's the thing - most modern men are feminine and that's why they're useless. They're not acting like men, they're acting like women because they're broken.
I really do kind of see it that way.
It's the "I'm a good one, right? I voted against the Bad Orange Man, I'm intersectional, I'm for feminism. Can I get laid now please?"
But, also the catalyst for strong men.
Trump is an alpha male asshole. Women will curse men like that until the day they die, but their panties are still soaked from it.
Biden is a supplicating beta, whose entire platform has been submitting to women's whims. Women feel instinctual disgust at men like that, even if they outwardly say they crave and love it.
In the ballot box, nobody will ever know what you said.
is it really a women or men thing when this seems to be more based on racial lines. ?
Often times, the most attractive candidate will do better among women after the major factors are accounted for. It won't just magically swing huge percentages, but its a powerful force that can make a difference.
As in, Dems will still get most of the black vote, but uglier Dems might cost them 5% of the black female vote. Small, but notable.
well there also could be more conservative women than social media would have you believe. But unfortunately the more hysterical liberal ones tend to drown them out with how loud and obnoxious they are.
Also true, but uglier Right men also would fail the same test. People like Obama and Trudeau owe a lot of their success to the same effects, because they were young attractive men relative to their opponent.
My Cousin is big into horses, which is a rich person's game. Something she noted about millennial, and now Gen Z, women around the barns was how many of them had black boyfriends. And the reason she surmised was that the black guys still acted macho and like Men. These women didn't want Karl the Soy Latte drinking cuck.
Its the eternal curse of women to consciously create the men that their subconscious is repulsed by. It was an obvious enough problem that the South Park episode about Metrosexuals pointed it out, and its still true today.
The one time someone spells Karl with a K, it's to insult....
As soon as I heard this, I thought of you.
Mail-in ballots and betas don't mix. There are a few cucks that told me their wife was watching them vote at the table, so of course they had to vote Biden.