Although do note that there aren't any motion controllers, so I'd still be skeptical about how fully featured that'll end up being. And I don't think any kind of hand tracking is going to be reliable enough at this juncture to take the place of motion controllers, not in a fast paced 3D environment.
I thought it was some sort of desktop simulator. Either way AR is the application I am actually interested in. I don't think it will be easy or quick, but we could be looking at a second industrial revolution.
I was only aware of 1. Computers by themselves aren't a method of producing things. Robots are. To the extent that we have 3d printing and robots, perhaps one of those is the 2nd. Seems like it's going to run right into the 3rd though.
My thought is we are going to move away from mass production. An artisan or robot will make things as you need them and customized for your application. Manufacturing will be less centralized. AR will guide artisans and allow you to do jobs with less prior knowledge .
One thing about what we do now is it is hugely wasteful both in terms of supply demand mismatch potential and shipping. If those costs are internalized, this endpoint production might look a lot better. You buy a part for 50 cents times 10. Waste 9 of em. Currently that costs you 9.50, but you may have just done 20 bucks worth of damage to the planet.
But AR doesn't produce anything either, and your criteria that it assists artisans is a bit shallow when CNCs and the like often help steps in larger creations for various artisans, especially in regards to metal works.
But you do make an interesting point regarding decentralisation. I'm skeptical that it would be allowed to come about in such a manner, but the potential is an interesting thought experiment at the very least.
To the extent manufacturing is not divorced from human input entirely, I think AR can help technicians and artisans with what they do. Many people already wear safety glasses or a hood. I think being able to look up information using that equipment, when it's sufficiently light and cheap, will be popular.
To the other point, I think decentralization depends on how future manufacturing techniques compare to the ones today, including the existing market in additive manufacturing. The factory paradigm, requiring a great deal of space to produce even tiny things, comes about because the prevailing manufacturing technology. Parts that are machined, for instance, have an economy more friendly to craft manufacture than cast parts. There is a market for parts machined to order that can be served by a relatively small shop compared to a factory optimized for casting as quickly as possible. And each part can be as unique as desired.
A better example is the welding mask Steve Mann came up with that let welders see the arc and surroundings at normal brightness as well as giving a real time readout of arc length.
The future of AR isn't an overglorified clipboard, it's adding meaningful information to our vision in real time. Motion enhancement to spot loose parts, variable polarization to see stresses in materials, precise measurements without needing to stop and get equipment, clear vision despite lighting conditions, and even translating parts of the spectrum to visible.
We're going to have MORE mass production, but it's going to be more efficient and with just-in-time production. Yes you'll be able to produce specific tailored products easier, but industrial factories will morph into "universal constructors" i.e. giant 3D printers that can make anything requested by anyone based on a common protocol, priced by volume. Or maybe that's the next next industrial revolution.
I dunno if it will be truly universal, but it will be much MUCH broader and primarily stick to a given material. Think plastics, woods, metals, etc. And those would produce everything, potentially with each of those being close together along with a few assembler factories that exist just to put parts together when they require parts from multiple factories.
VR is necessary for this thing to be a good product, also I bet people would rather use apple services than oculus despite the fact APPLE DELETED SOMEONE'S AUDIO FILES AND RUINED THE REST BY CONVERTING THEM TO COMPRESSED FORMATS!
IIRC, a long time ago Apple had an option to scan your audio file collection and replace those files with files off of their iTunes library. For most people, that meant replacing low quality rips of CDs that they got off of Napster and the like, but there were audiophiles who had lossless audio files and the replacements were a downgrade in that aspect. It was a one way operation, you lost the original files once you did the conversion.
Ngl, I'm going to buy one. Fully believe it will be just a techno toy, but I'm at a stage of my life where I can afford it. I've been wanting to try out VR helmet + drone...
Yoi can get an FPV drone for like 50 bucks and up. Not that I know anything abou drones. Just saying that is easier to come by than Apple's thing a lot.
i don't know much. I've used a DJI mini a couple of times and it was very cool. I've seen there's some, I think, 3rd party software that allows you to use a Oculus Quest with it and an Android phone.
Wait a year and there will be half a dozen clones by other companies that will cost half as much, and you won't have the shame of buying an Apple product.
I don't think Apple is even aiming at the home. The company is promoting that, but I think it's to hide what is really happening.
The military wants AR helmets, and are willing to spend $5,000 a unit so long as it does the job. Microsoft just lost a big account with their own AR for military units.
The next part is a reality that doesn't get discussed by console fans. Arcades and out of home markets are doing way better with XR systems than the at home markets. A goggle like that would be the right price for an MR or AR experience. Imagine laser tag with AR and real mazes. The market has already decided.
So why promote for at home use? Because idiot upper middle class people buy Apple. They want to feel advanced, and that's what Apple promotes. So it's a perfect fit for an office guy who works at home, and wants to look cool.
So, apple shows off their tech for home use, but their major market is out of home and military.
Is there a better one coming? I don't see any such thing catching on, but Apple could slap a fruit logo on a turd and call it the iShit and it would sell.
Same here. Thousands of dollars of VR equipment that just literally collects dust.
The games aren't that great, and setting up the VR to work with steering wheel setups like Fanatec for games like Assetto Corso feels more like work than play (though admittedly, VR in Assetto makes 100% difference because leading turns by looking through the apex out the side of the window definitely helps with measuring braking distance).
Apple could slap a fruit logo on a turd and call it the iShit and it would sell.
That's really NOT true. Apple has had plenty of dud products over the years, even ones that were cool and technologically ahead of their time (e.g., Newton).
I've been saying I think AR is the future of gaming for a while, with VR being the path.
But this isn't it.
There are some things in its favour. VR gaming has come leaps and bounds in its movement thanks to valve. Half life alyx solved a lot of the issues and now a first person game is far more enjoyable. It's only now that a big FPS hit is possible. And we've lost a lot of the cords. Rift CV1 needed 3 sensors round the room and cords to the pc. Rift S needed cords to the pc. Quest and quest 2 didn't need any cord, but if you optionally did link it up, it became far more powerful. All for $600
But we haven't had it yet. The groundwork has only just now been laid down where movement isn't balls and cords are optional. A $3500 device that offers nothing that rigging the passthrough cameras on oculus devices at $600 could achieve? It's baffling (until you consider that military idea someone had).
A $3500 device that offers nothing that rigging the passthrough cameras on oculus devices at $600 could achieve? It's baffling
Why not reserve judgment until actual reviews are out, including head-to-head comparisons and people who really know existing VR tech?
I've said before, I think it's going to be a fun tech toy, and I don't think it's going to become a daily user for most people, but I think there are some very intriguing possibilities. Maybe in 10+ years when tech has continued to improve, everything is smaller, and batteries and power consumption better?
Why not reserve judgment until actual reviews are out,
You have to make judgement calls before something is out sometimes. I'm in the market for an upgrade to my rift s right now (the left controller is a bit damaged)
I'm also wanting to invest in tech atm.
I am at least a hobbiest familiar with the tech and am somewhat in communities that use it and talk about it
We all knew the metaverse was dead on arrival right? I'm not saying that this is as obvious a flop, but I'm going to make a call, and I just don't see how this works for apple.
And besides, its not like I'm ruling it out forever. I'm open to being pleasantly suprised, I just dont think it's likely.
I still don’t see the point to Apple Vision. Though I’m gen x and like playing my games on a couch in the living room.
They were saying these were going to be a big deal in China and given that there’s denser housing there - having an isolating experience like that might be more valuable?
You make 16 posts, what do you get?
Another day older and deeper in debt.
Mr. Cramer, don't you fire me, 'cause I can't go...
I owe my eyes at the Apple tech store.
Lol, the damn thing costs $3,500.
Anyone who thinks this will achieve mainstream adoption belongs in a mental hospital.
It's also only an AR device. So while it might have some applicability in certain high-end industry work, it's still going to be exceedingly niche.
Not true. You can do full immersive mode, which is VR.
Ah, I stand corrected.
Although do note that there aren't any motion controllers, so I'd still be skeptical about how fully featured that'll end up being. And I don't think any kind of hand tracking is going to be reliable enough at this juncture to take the place of motion controllers, not in a fast paced 3D environment.
I thought it was some sort of desktop simulator. Either way AR is the application I am actually interested in. I don't think it will be easy or quick, but we could be looking at a second industrial revolution.
If this would be comparable to an industrial revolution, wouldn't it be the third? You know, industrial machines, computers, and then this with AR.
I was only aware of 1. Computers by themselves aren't a method of producing things. Robots are. To the extent that we have 3d printing and robots, perhaps one of those is the 2nd. Seems like it's going to run right into the 3rd though.
My thought is we are going to move away from mass production. An artisan or robot will make things as you need them and customized for your application. Manufacturing will be less centralized. AR will guide artisans and allow you to do jobs with less prior knowledge .
One thing about what we do now is it is hugely wasteful both in terms of supply demand mismatch potential and shipping. If those costs are internalized, this endpoint production might look a lot better. You buy a part for 50 cents times 10. Waste 9 of em. Currently that costs you 9.50, but you may have just done 20 bucks worth of damage to the planet.
But AR doesn't produce anything either, and your criteria that it assists artisans is a bit shallow when CNCs and the like often help steps in larger creations for various artisans, especially in regards to metal works.
But you do make an interesting point regarding decentralisation. I'm skeptical that it would be allowed to come about in such a manner, but the potential is an interesting thought experiment at the very least.
To the extent manufacturing is not divorced from human input entirely, I think AR can help technicians and artisans with what they do. Many people already wear safety glasses or a hood. I think being able to look up information using that equipment, when it's sufficiently light and cheap, will be popular.
To the other point, I think decentralization depends on how future manufacturing techniques compare to the ones today, including the existing market in additive manufacturing. The factory paradigm, requiring a great deal of space to produce even tiny things, comes about because the prevailing manufacturing technology. Parts that are machined, for instance, have an economy more friendly to craft manufacture than cast parts. There is a market for parts machined to order that can be served by a relatively small shop compared to a factory optimized for casting as quickly as possible. And each part can be as unique as desired.
A better example is the welding mask Steve Mann came up with that let welders see the arc and surroundings at normal brightness as well as giving a real time readout of arc length.
The future of AR isn't an overglorified clipboard, it's adding meaningful information to our vision in real time. Motion enhancement to spot loose parts, variable polarization to see stresses in materials, precise measurements without needing to stop and get equipment, clear vision despite lighting conditions, and even translating parts of the spectrum to visible.
We're going to have MORE mass production, but it's going to be more efficient and with just-in-time production. Yes you'll be able to produce specific tailored products easier, but industrial factories will morph into "universal constructors" i.e. giant 3D printers that can make anything requested by anyone based on a common protocol, priced by volume. Or maybe that's the next next industrial revolution.
I dunno if it will be truly universal, but it will be much MUCH broader and primarily stick to a given material. Think plastics, woods, metals, etc. And those would produce everything, potentially with each of those being close together along with a few assembler factories that exist just to put parts together when they require parts from multiple factories.
I can see all of that happening. Predictions are notoriously difficult.
VR is necessary for this thing to be a good product, also I bet people would rather use apple services than oculus despite the fact APPLE DELETED SOMEONE'S AUDIO FILES AND RUINED THE REST BY CONVERTING THEM TO COMPRESSED FORMATS!
IIRC, a long time ago Apple had an option to scan your audio file collection and replace those files with files off of their iTunes library. For most people, that meant replacing low quality rips of CDs that they got off of Napster and the like, but there were audiophiles who had lossless audio files and the replacements were a downgrade in that aspect. It was a one way operation, you lost the original files once you did the conversion.
Ngl, I'm going to buy one. Fully believe it will be just a techno toy, but I'm at a stage of my life where I can afford it. I've been wanting to try out VR helmet + drone...
Yoi can get an FPV drone for like 50 bucks and up. Not that I know anything abou drones. Just saying that is easier to come by than Apple's thing a lot.
i don't know much. I've used a DJI mini a couple of times and it was very cool. I've seen there's some, I think, 3rd party software that allows you to use a Oculus Quest with it and an Android phone.
Wait a year and there will be half a dozen clones by other companies that will cost half as much, and you won't have the shame of buying an Apple product.
As an adult, I feel neither shame nor pride over what products I consume. Anyone can consume, it's not particularly something to be proud of.
(Tbf, at least in theory)
If glasses like that become mainstream it won't be for another decade, at best. And that's a big if, considering the "success" of previous VR tech.
Which means it's irrelevant with regard to this product and the Apple stock that guy guy is trying to get you to buy.
I wonder how much money someone could make by just doing the exact opposite of whatever Cramer recommends.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/sjim
I don't think Apple is even aiming at the home. The company is promoting that, but I think it's to hide what is really happening.
The military wants AR helmets, and are willing to spend $5,000 a unit so long as it does the job. Microsoft just lost a big account with their own AR for military units.
The next part is a reality that doesn't get discussed by console fans. Arcades and out of home markets are doing way better with XR systems than the at home markets. A goggle like that would be the right price for an MR or AR experience. Imagine laser tag with AR and real mazes. The market has already decided.
So why promote for at home use? Because idiot upper middle class people buy Apple. They want to feel advanced, and that's what Apple promotes. So it's a perfect fit for an office guy who works at home, and wants to look cool.
So, apple shows off their tech for home use, but their major market is out of home and military.
Is there a better one coming? I don't see any such thing catching on, but Apple could slap a fruit logo on a turd and call it the iShit and it would sell.
Indeed. Never underestimate the ability of the iCult to purchase iBranded iProducts for iPrices.
People do buy them. The question is whether they ever use it. I have 2 headsets that I never use.
Most Apple stuff has the advantage of being high touch: laptops to watches.
Same here. Thousands of dollars of VR equipment that just literally collects dust.
The games aren't that great, and setting up the VR to work with steering wheel setups like Fanatec for games like Assetto Corso feels more like work than play (though admittedly, VR in Assetto makes 100% difference because leading turns by looking through the apex out the side of the window definitely helps with measuring braking distance).
That's really NOT true. Apple has had plenty of dud products over the years, even ones that were cool and technologically ahead of their time (e.g., Newton).
Yep. This thing reminds me of the Apple Lisa. It's a very advanced product that's way too expensive for mass adoption.
I've been saying I think AR is the future of gaming for a while, with VR being the path.
But this isn't it.
There are some things in its favour. VR gaming has come leaps and bounds in its movement thanks to valve. Half life alyx solved a lot of the issues and now a first person game is far more enjoyable. It's only now that a big FPS hit is possible. And we've lost a lot of the cords. Rift CV1 needed 3 sensors round the room and cords to the pc. Rift S needed cords to the pc. Quest and quest 2 didn't need any cord, but if you optionally did link it up, it became far more powerful. All for $600
But we haven't had it yet. The groundwork has only just now been laid down where movement isn't balls and cords are optional. A $3500 device that offers nothing that rigging the passthrough cameras on oculus devices at $600 could achieve? It's baffling (until you consider that military idea someone had).
Why not reserve judgment until actual reviews are out, including head-to-head comparisons and people who really know existing VR tech?
I've said before, I think it's going to be a fun tech toy, and I don't think it's going to become a daily user for most people, but I think there are some very intriguing possibilities. Maybe in 10+ years when tech has continued to improve, everything is smaller, and batteries and power consumption better?
You have to make judgement calls before something is out sometimes. I'm in the market for an upgrade to my rift s right now (the left controller is a bit damaged)
I'm also wanting to invest in tech atm.
I am at least a hobbiest familiar with the tech and am somewhat in communities that use it and talk about it
We all knew the metaverse was dead on arrival right? I'm not saying that this is as obvious a flop, but I'm going to make a call, and I just don't see how this works for apple.
And besides, its not like I'm ruling it out forever. I'm open to being pleasantly suprised, I just dont think it's likely.
Sell sell sell!
I still don’t see the point to Apple Vision. Though I’m gen x and like playing my games on a couch in the living room.
They were saying these were going to be a big deal in China and given that there’s denser housing there - having an isolating experience like that might be more valuable?
You make 16 posts, what do you get?
Another day older and deeper in debt.
Mr. Cramer, don't you fire me, 'cause I can't go...
I owe my eyes at the Apple tech store.