I was only aware of 1. Computers by themselves aren't a method of producing things. Robots are. To the extent that we have 3d printing and robots, perhaps one of those is the 2nd. Seems like it's going to run right into the 3rd though.
My thought is we are going to move away from mass production. An artisan or robot will make things as you need them and customized for your application. Manufacturing will be less centralized. AR will guide artisans and allow you to do jobs with less prior knowledge .
One thing about what we do now is it is hugely wasteful both in terms of supply demand mismatch potential and shipping. If those costs are internalized, this endpoint production might look a lot better. You buy a part for 50 cents times 10. Waste 9 of em. Currently that costs you 9.50, but you may have just done 20 bucks worth of damage to the planet.
But AR doesn't produce anything either, and your criteria that it assists artisans is a bit shallow when CNCs and the like often help steps in larger creations for various artisans, especially in regards to metal works.
But you do make an interesting point regarding decentralisation. I'm skeptical that it would be allowed to come about in such a manner, but the potential is an interesting thought experiment at the very least.
To the extent manufacturing is not divorced from human input entirely, I think AR can help technicians and artisans with what they do. Many people already wear safety glasses or a hood. I think being able to look up information using that equipment, when it's sufficiently light and cheap, will be popular.
To the other point, I think decentralization depends on how future manufacturing techniques compare to the ones today, including the existing market in additive manufacturing. The factory paradigm, requiring a great deal of space to produce even tiny things, comes about because the prevailing manufacturing technology. Parts that are machined, for instance, have an economy more friendly to craft manufacture than cast parts. There is a market for parts machined to order that can be served by a relatively small shop compared to a factory optimized for casting as quickly as possible. And each part can be as unique as desired.
A better example is the welding mask Steve Mann came up with that let welders see the arc and surroundings at normal brightness as well as giving a real time readout of arc length.
The future of AR isn't an overglorified clipboard, it's adding meaningful information to our vision in real time. Motion enhancement to spot loose parts, variable polarization to see stresses in materials, precise measurements without needing to stop and get equipment, clear vision despite lighting conditions, and even translating parts of the spectrum to visible.
We're going to have MORE mass production, but it's going to be more efficient and with just-in-time production. Yes you'll be able to produce specific tailored products easier, but industrial factories will morph into "universal constructors" i.e. giant 3D printers that can make anything requested by anyone based on a common protocol, priced by volume. Or maybe that's the next next industrial revolution.
I dunno if it will be truly universal, but it will be much MUCH broader and primarily stick to a given material. Think plastics, woods, metals, etc. And those would produce everything, potentially with each of those being close together along with a few assembler factories that exist just to put parts together when they require parts from multiple factories.
I was only aware of 1. Computers by themselves aren't a method of producing things. Robots are. To the extent that we have 3d printing and robots, perhaps one of those is the 2nd. Seems like it's going to run right into the 3rd though.
My thought is we are going to move away from mass production. An artisan or robot will make things as you need them and customized for your application. Manufacturing will be less centralized. AR will guide artisans and allow you to do jobs with less prior knowledge .
One thing about what we do now is it is hugely wasteful both in terms of supply demand mismatch potential and shipping. If those costs are internalized, this endpoint production might look a lot better. You buy a part for 50 cents times 10. Waste 9 of em. Currently that costs you 9.50, but you may have just done 20 bucks worth of damage to the planet.
But AR doesn't produce anything either, and your criteria that it assists artisans is a bit shallow when CNCs and the like often help steps in larger creations for various artisans, especially in regards to metal works.
But you do make an interesting point regarding decentralisation. I'm skeptical that it would be allowed to come about in such a manner, but the potential is an interesting thought experiment at the very least.
To the extent manufacturing is not divorced from human input entirely, I think AR can help technicians and artisans with what they do. Many people already wear safety glasses or a hood. I think being able to look up information using that equipment, when it's sufficiently light and cheap, will be popular.
To the other point, I think decentralization depends on how future manufacturing techniques compare to the ones today, including the existing market in additive manufacturing. The factory paradigm, requiring a great deal of space to produce even tiny things, comes about because the prevailing manufacturing technology. Parts that are machined, for instance, have an economy more friendly to craft manufacture than cast parts. There is a market for parts machined to order that can be served by a relatively small shop compared to a factory optimized for casting as quickly as possible. And each part can be as unique as desired.
A better example is the welding mask Steve Mann came up with that let welders see the arc and surroundings at normal brightness as well as giving a real time readout of arc length.
The future of AR isn't an overglorified clipboard, it's adding meaningful information to our vision in real time. Motion enhancement to spot loose parts, variable polarization to see stresses in materials, precise measurements without needing to stop and get equipment, clear vision despite lighting conditions, and even translating parts of the spectrum to visible.
We're going to have MORE mass production, but it's going to be more efficient and with just-in-time production. Yes you'll be able to produce specific tailored products easier, but industrial factories will morph into "universal constructors" i.e. giant 3D printers that can make anything requested by anyone based on a common protocol, priced by volume. Or maybe that's the next next industrial revolution.
I dunno if it will be truly universal, but it will be much MUCH broader and primarily stick to a given material. Think plastics, woods, metals, etc. And those would produce everything, potentially with each of those being close together along with a few assembler factories that exist just to put parts together when they require parts from multiple factories.
I can see all of that happening. Predictions are notoriously difficult.