I tried to explain to him most polls til Election Day will either show a tie or show her up and not to put too much faith into them. I feel that her “popularity” is a media invention considering she lasted only a few minutes in the primaries, but there are plenty of people who will blindly vote for her like the “mean tweets” people in 2020. To say nothing of any mysterious overnight ballots come Election Day.
I just told him that the media will be pushing her harder than they did for Obama or Biden. I would love to see a landslide like 84 but ever since 2012 this country has sadly shown they will vote based on emotion and what is trendy in a heartbeat.
The polls aren't about whether she can actually win. They are about priming the public to accept the outcome as reasonable when the so-called elites "fortify" it again. They are literally propaganda.
True. In 2020 I remember thinking surely people won’t vote for the party that cheers on rioting and looting. Boy was I wrong
But did they REALLY vote for Biden?
I remember Larry Elder saying if you reversed everything and Biden was up and then overnight votes for Trump flooded in they would be calling for investigations left and right.
they called for investigations in 2016 anyway, and there were no last minute dumps then.
Yet another reason to despise the media. After 4 years of questioning the 16 election all of a sudden elections became sacrosanct and how dare anyone suggest anything odd happened in 2020
Sacrosanct and "most secure in history" despite radical last-minute changes to the process as a reaction to covid mania.
That's the thing that gets me about it. I could actually see their years long industrial scale 24/7/365 propaganda campaign to paint Trump as Turbo Mecha Hitler actually working enough to convince people to vote him out. But they just couldn't let it go to chance, they had to be absolutely sure and so they cheated.
They didn’t vote for Biden dude. It was 2:1 Trump even then.
Now it’s going to be 4:1.
I really hope one day the truth about that election comes out. A busted water pipe in Atlanta and magic overnight ballots that don’t seem to draw any suspicion
It blows my mind how many people either dismiss that or claim it was fabricated. Then they turn around and accept the presented narrative of January 6th without pause.
Busted water pipe turned out to be a lie too: https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/slow-leak-text-messages-cast-doubt-on-georgia-officials-burst-pipe-excuse-for-pause-in-counting/news-story/19176f5113512210517c82debe684392
Can’t say I’m surprised that this wasn’t bigger news
One of the things that made me think 2020 was a shoo-in for Trump was the fact that following the riots, there were record numbers of first time gun owners. Then according to polls the reason why there were so many new gun owners is because libs were terrified of roving bands of MAGA marauders hunting down libs and minorities for sport.
Which I must admit is quite a vexing result. It most certainly sounds like some fuckery was afoot, since it would be the most bizarre thing in the world if leftist riots lead to people buying guns to protect themselves from the figments of Jussie Smollett's imagination. But then again, I wouldn't necessarily rule out the possibility of libs being that retarded, either.
Also remember all the businesses boarding up because they expected Trump to win and leftists to riot
Precisely. They are tools to gaslight the public into believing a controlled narrative.
It's good to maintain healthy amount of paranoia though, use this to ensure EVERYONE votes by whatever means for Trump, don't think 'he survived an assassination, he'll win' to put it off, get everyone registered and voting so they can't use your name to vote for Kamala.
Good point. I know some people who think it will be an easy landslide. As much as I’d love that, I seriously doubt that will happen
I thought that until they memory holed Trump having an assassination attempt that the secret service let happen. I fully expect this election to be tougher than 2020. The level of gaslighting and spin this time around is another level.
A lot of people are also just tired of all the news about everything and are zoning out. Personally, I’m pretty worried. Him getting shot gave people permission to speak out, then it was immediately silenced. It’s evil and scary.
I've tried to tell people (mainly family boomers) that the polls are nothing but manipulation tactics. Most of the news is anymore. They are reflecting in the polls what they have decided is best for you to see to get the outcome they want. That being beside the fact that a poll is only as good as the group being polled. Go poll people at a gay parade on their thoughts on gay marriage, what do you think the answer will be?
I wish I had any idea who I thought would win the election. I know a bunch of people doubted me in 2016 when I said Trump would win. I usually have a pretty good gut feeling, but 2020 broke that, and I get a worse feeling about Trump's prospects for this year than I did in 2020. But that's just stupidity anyway. In the end, I try to set it all aside and not let politics live rent free in my head. Do the best I can with the overripe lemons I'm served, and move on.
I have personally accepted the fact that they’re going to blatantly steal the election for Kamala and nothing will be done about it. If Trump does win, it’ll be a nice surprise but I’m psychologically preparing for the defeat already. At least Kamala will be good for a laugh as she presides over the last phase of destroying the west.
Agreed. I thought 2020 would be an easy win. I definitely underestimated just how many people would get hysterical over Covid, but like you said we can’t let politics dominate us
I have zero faith in Trump to actually win. Plus, even if he does win it, it will be the most watered down form of what he originally was campaigning on in 2016. Oh well.
I wish I had any idea how much I could trust the result anyways.
Your cousin should be worried about Kamala winning because our elections are not secure.
Ask yourself, have you ever been asked in these polls? Has anyone you've known been? Do you even respond when you very rarely might get the call about it?
I'm gonna say probably not, and you don't go to the websites where they do the online polling either because why would you.
So what do those polls actually reflect? A bunch of self selection biases of people choosing themselves and a bunch of niche areas of the country that lean heavily blue to begin with where all surveys are taken to begin with.
Out of 10,000 polls you'd still only have a 5% chance of being called, so not being called is is not a good reason to discount them.
Pollsters can correct for respondent bias if they want to.
Richard Baris aka People's Pundit's Big Data Poll does all kinds of bias corrections and factors in "untouchable" things like voting/responding behavior among demographics. Most accurate poll for the last decade, paid for in large part by grassroots donations. Completely blacklisted by all mainstream news.
Fivethirtyeight has a big list evaluating 277 pollsters without even mentioning Big Data Poll. RCP excludes it from their average. You'll only find it on Epoch Times because none of the establishment groups want you to see a real poll result.
Wonder if Nate Silver could be bullied into addressing Baris's work.
I’ve definitely never been asked
look up "push polling" and thank me later
Your cousin is right. Its all being set up againsts us.
There are plenty of interviews about "owning the leftards" where an interviewer goes up and asks a Kamala supporter what they like about her, and they're just stunned into silence for a while until they manage to choke out "she woman. Woman good." like a retarded caveman...
But there's an important thing in here: These interviewers ARE finding these people. And they're not looking all that hard to locate them. Lots of NPCs are out there going "Me vote Kamala. Kamala sound like Koala. Koala funny bear. Hehe.", and they will follow through with it, they will vote (D), because the mass media told them to. NPCs in the most classic sense of the term, they're thoughtless constructs that exist solely to provide opposition to the active players... But they're common, and numerous.
He SHOULD be paranoid. He SHOULD think that there isn't enough being done. Complacency and docility are far more mind-killers than fear is.
Good! Let him be paranoid and get him to do something other than watch the news. Get him to be a poll watcher, vote counter, and just about anything to help stop another steal.
Put ZERO faith into them.
And then go and find out how to be a volunteer election monitor.
Stop worrying about the media and GO DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE PROBLEM.
I actually got an email about that the other day. Polling location is like 1.5 miles from me
It all comes down to one fundamental question.
When a moderate democrat becomes a republican... does their tendency to respond to polling change as well? This is a very important question. If people who flip sides also change their response behavior, then EVERY D->R flip is flying stealth. The polls cannot see them.
You have to understand that partisan non-participation bias is such a huge problem that the polls are basically garbage. They might as well be just posting last year's election results and that would be more statistically honest than what they're pitching as polls now.
Because they're using the last election to try to compensate for partisan non-participation bias. This natural result of this is that the polling will tend to resemble the last election.
It also presumes that there aren't Democrats claiming to be Republicans without actually flipping in order to intentionally skew any polling.
Mmmmmm no.
Unlike a change in participation bias, that behavior WOULD actually be detectable in the polling process.
Your reply tells me that you don't understand the math very well. So I'll be blocking you.
The same polls that said Hillary would beat Trump?
This will be his first election. I told him about Hillary showing way ahead in 2016 polls
Once again, Trump is closer to Kamala in the polls than he was to Hillary in 16.
This assumes they've learned nothing from 2016. They're keeping her just ahead enough to make her seem viable, but not so far ahead so as to induce complacency. The media is retarded, but they're semi-competent when it comes to duping normies.
I remember some polls showing Hillary way ahead so I get your point. I wouldn’t put too much faith in them but I wouldn’t discard them all together
That is what worries me. How do people around you feel about what is going on in the UK or the whole flooding the country with “migrants”?
Is it one of those things that never really gets discussed beyond the side comments in support of migration by that one liberal? That's how I find much of the conversation in the US. Particularly if it's something like work, the women and soymen will throw you under the bus so fast over anything outside of the approved programming, and with HR being so infiltrated, you're done. I was a bit surprised to hear some commentary on the Indians vs Guardians (baseball team renamed for "racism" if you didn't know) at a work related event lately, but it was also all 40+ straight white men involved, a group that would find tattling over some words to be a pussy thing to do.
Lucky for me, my friend group says what they want almost to the level of here.
The idea that expecting people to assimilate or feeling like your country has too much immigration being racist is crazy
The mistake in 2016 was fabricating the voter suppression polls too far in Hillary's favor. At some tipping point, it was their own side getting suppressed because "she got this" and the opposition, rather than be suppressed, found a vote for Trump being a heroic sign of defiance of her all but assured coronation.
The polls are propaganda, as always. They heavily oversample democrats and are still doing terrible for the amount they oversample by. https://x.com/Peoples_Pundit is worth reading on this, along with some of the people he mentions.
She’s 15% ahead in the prediction markets.
That’s not good
These polls are very very fake & gay.
Half the population has no internal monologue or legitimate reasoning capability. They simply collect social cues and spit out opinions they believe will produce approval and social credit.
These people are extremely vulnerable to preference cascade triggered by push polls.
Social media is also so flooded with botting that there's no reliable way to know what's really trending and what's just paid to trend via botfarms. Nevermind people and organizations with deep pockets paying social media platforms to have the algorithm boost content. It's giving big Dead Internet Theory vibes, everything just feels really off because of that.
What was so seminal about 2012?
Obama vs Romney?
For me that was a big deal because I remember thinking surely after seeing this guy in action they won’t vote for him again
Romney was controlled op so he made sure to only ever pander to the most aggressive of right-leaning voters while ignoring virtually everyone else. I remember when he browned his face when speaking to the Hispanic vote. By that time, it was abundantly clear that they were on the same team.
Even now, idiots on compromised websites will show how they both debated with each other and were frothing over how respectful it was and I was thinking they and the talking heads were respectful about it because they were both on the same team.
We do not have to wonder anymore given that they are all rubbing elbows to derail the bad orange man.