I tried to explain to him most polls til Election Day will either show a tie or show her up and not to put too much faith into them. I feel that her “popularity” is a media invention considering she lasted only a few minutes in the primaries, but there are plenty of people who will blindly vote for her like the “mean tweets” people in 2020. To say nothing of any mysterious overnight ballots come Election Day.
I just told him that the media will be pushing her harder than they did for Obama or Biden. I would love to see a landslide like 84 but ever since 2012 this country has sadly shown they will vote based on emotion and what is trendy in a heartbeat.
It all comes down to one fundamental question.
When a moderate democrat becomes a republican... does their tendency to respond to polling change as well? This is a very important question. If people who flip sides also change their response behavior, then EVERY D->R flip is flying stealth. The polls cannot see them.
You have to understand that partisan non-participation bias is such a huge problem that the polls are basically garbage. They might as well be just posting last year's election results and that would be more statistically honest than what they're pitching as polls now.
Because they're using the last election to try to compensate for partisan non-participation bias. This natural result of this is that the polling will tend to resemble the last election.
It also presumes that there aren't Democrats claiming to be Republicans without actually flipping in order to intentionally skew any polling.
Mmmmmm no.
Unlike a change in participation bias, that behavior WOULD actually be detectable in the polling process.
Your reply tells me that you don't understand the math very well. So I'll be blocking you.