With SpaceX IPO happening soon there is a lot of buzz around the stock. The valuation of $1.75 trillion seems to price in a lot of future success and earnings which may limit the upside, but with it going to S&P and NASDAQ so quickly maybe it will push to $3-4 trillion within a couple weeks?
I'm undecided at this point, tending toward no.
No, Elon, I'm not holding your bag.
That is fair, the consistent over promising and under delivering from Elon is frustrating. However stock market returns from Tesla say otherwise and that is what is drawing me to try SpaceX, not its actual current or realistic near future earnings. Just pure momentum and speculation.
Fucking Allbirds, the shoe company, 6x its stock price all because it said the magic AI word and retarded retail groids and algobots bought it up. Tesla, the mediocre car company, is no different; it just has a better cult leader.
Every company is in a competition to get into the S&P 500 and other indices so they can defraud retirement accounts forced to buy their hot garbage of a stock.
I think SpaceX is a cool company that has done a lot of impressive stuff for space flight, but I am not going to be holding the bag on the initial stock crash.
It will crash indeed, but then it will recover. 2-3T next year is nott impossible
Company is REALISATICALLY worth 200B tops.
100% a possibility.
My fairly tame and safe prediction: The "Buy the dip" window will occur within the first quarter, near the latter part of it.
Such as?
This should be fun. I know for a fact that everything their company has done are projects the Democrats forced the DoD to abandon in the nineties. If it wasn't for the faggots in the military oversight committee it all would have been completed in the mid 2000s.
Musk didn't invent in air routing, he didn't invent low earth orbit, and he didn't invent reusable capsules. I was trained by the guy who did invent in air routing, among several other fascinating technologies.
Musk is a brogrammer who is great at selling government projects back to the government.
This guy gets it. It's also why Musk was a "card carrying" democrat for years.
They hollowed out NASA then pissed on it's grave.
Fuck these clowns.
Why do you think it will crash? Eventually maybe after many years of failures, but being fast tracked into NASDAQ and S&P 500 should boost the stock a lot? Its slated to IPO as one of the 10 most valuable companies in the US.
Maybe crash isn’t the best phrasing, but I anticipate that there will be a lot of early investment off the hype of a company that I think deserves a high valuation that will push the cost to an extreme level, eventually becoming overvalued before a “mini crash” occurs that drops the stock, plus whenever the AI bubble pops (if it does) that will tank the price as well.
Long-term it’s probably a good investment but if I’m trying a short-term strategy I wouldn’t put a lot of money into it.
Humor me, the original post already stated that the stock starting at an "extreme level" as the total revenue isn't even in the top 200, but the valuation will put it in the top 10. You seem to indicate that it will pump even higher, so why not jump in and sell to a "greater fool" once it hits 4 - 5 trillion? That's what I'm thinking.
The question is will you be able to dump it to a greater fool in time haha.
The greater fools in this picture are pensions and 401(k)s that'll keep automatically buying toxic waste because MUH INDEX.
It will be funny to see boomers ruining our country for decades to make sure their retirement is great, only for AI and a couple overhyped stocks to come in at the last minute and ruin it all for them.
i heard its being fast tracked into the nasdaq100. Not really the spx500
I don't know. I bought TSLA pretty early and it's been fantastic (up 4 digit %s) to me. But that's from when it was niche, the only people hyped were techies, Elon wasn't a household name, and wasn't controversial.
SpaceX has done an incredible thing, but everyone and their cousin knows about it. But there's so much potential upside in space tech. Even just in Starlink alone. I don't know. Maybe it will be one of those where the IPO pops, drops to fuck over retail investors, than has huge long-term growth. It's a hard one to guess. But you make a good point about the SP500. Index/ETF will be forced to buy in and hold.
I just hope it does become "the Elon stock" to the detriment of TSLA.
I feel like this is the likely outcome.
Sol resources will be a game changer, but whether that will be a now, soon, or eventual thing is the main question, and the general public is too retarded to comprehend the timescales involved in those differences.
IPO = It's Probably Overpriced.
You would have to be retarded to have access to the IPO and not buy in.
Just a P in the IPO here, not an insider.
We all are since most 401k plans will have exposure to it whether you like it or not.
Is this going to be the new Tesla stock?
It'd be ironic if it becomes too successful by achieving resource extraction that money including stock is worthless by comparison..
Last time someone tried space resource extraction it gave us necromorphs.
We already have those, it's something troons get called.
So long as we don't remove THE OBVIOUS DEMONIC ARTIFACT from THE PEDESTAL CLEARLY SEALING IT we'll be fine.
So we need to run potential space miners through horror film scenarios, the ones that do this get the job with bonuses.
Random Jewish Manager: "Lets take that artifact with us so I can sell it to some goy later"
Yeah, Jews are being banned from space, they wanted their holy land, they can stat ONLY there!
I ain't risking zombie cuthulu planets because they wanted a quick buck!
Alternatively, if they could all be moved to another planet and then left there for a few hundred years they will die out on their own with nobody else to leech off of.
You're still giving them a space craft...
You're upping the risk of space cuthulus compared to just walling in Israel.
I don’t think the actual IPO is until mid June timeframe. And you most likely need at least $500k in stocks to be able to actually sign up for the IPO with your brokerage (not that you have to buy $500k worth, but you can’t just be some poor bloke on RH) unless you want to be an idiot and try and buy it on market open. Well, maybe you’d be an idiot, or it could work out… stock could go up or down - big brain.
I’ll probably check to see what the minimum I have to buy is and do it. I think it was committing about $50k for the CRBS IPO last week.
It's only $100k to get in with at least one brokerage, which shouldn't be a problem for any of the guys who have it all figured out on here.
We just call that "extreme risk."
The company cannot do what it says it can. It cannot meet it's goals. It's engineering is dogshit. It has nothing other than marketing.
Do you also believe in magic? If so, I have a few things you might be interested in buying, very exclusive.
Then you should not have any money in the market. Stick with index funds. I mean, if you can't see through obvious bullshit.
It reminds me of what Charlie Munger said about trading cypto: "It's like someone else is trading turds, and you decide, well, I can't be left out!"
They literally launched 2/3 of all rocket launches last year. Their only competition is China, and only if you combine all Chinese launch companies. All other companies are a rounding error.
Don't talk out of your ass. There are plenty of reasons to not buy SapceX, but their engineering isn't it.
That's a statistic that people use when they don't know how to properly analyze data.
You continue to demonstrate an inability to understand the data you hope to use.
They're doing way more than test flights and LEO satellite clusters. Let me know when you've moved past counting and into thinking.
Everything you said is entirely out of your ass. Or even worse, regurgitated shit from someone else's.
kek. "engineering." Good one.
The problem with index funds is you're forced to buy SpaceX regardless, at least if you're in the Nasdaq. If Elon can keep the bullshit going, its inclusion in the S&P 500 isn't far behind.
No, this is exactly my problem, my literal job is to see through bullshit and it has kept me out of the market way too long. Musk is a bullshit king, and it has baffled me for years why it is what it is.
I'll never retire at this rate as I can't save enough. I'm wondering if SpaceX will be a quick win, and maybe everyone here discounting it is exactly why it'll moon (although that valuation is already 95% of the way to the moon).
No.
If you own the main indices - you will end up being a bagholder for Elon’s exit :
Index Approx total market cap S&P 500 ~$67.8 trillion Nasdaq Composite / Nasdaq-listed market ~$48 trillion
SpaceX - estimated total market cap = $1.7trillion
eventually spacex will be added and be about 3% of the nasdaq index and 2% of the spx500.
I think it's a terrible idea to buy on IPO unless you can get in the actual IPO offering. It will shoot up, and very highly likely fall off a cliff soon after. If you want it buy it then. If you want to try to flip it, well I turn that towards calculated gambling and I would rather do that differently.
Long term, I don't really know. It probably doesn't fit my mold. I don't like to chase hype and trends, but dig into the underlying, and I suspect a lot of things I have already have SpaceX as a customer.
Listen, if I'm gonna make plays on individual stocks it's either going to be stuff I know like when I went in on Microsoft at $250 right as they were jumping on their AI push or it's going to be dumb plays like buying in on GameStop right at the peak to fuck with hedge funds because it was funny.
I got zero reason to throw money at SpaceX. Anything related to space travel is a dead end until someone starts making a serious push to clear up the constantly increasing debris cage surrounding the planet. I forget what the fancy term for it is, but it's been a concern ever since my buddy who worked in satellite communications for the military clued me in to its existence. China be blowing up satellites left and right and leaving all the remains in orbit and eventually we won't be able to get off planet because there's just too much stuff up there and even something the size of a paint chip will leave a dent the size of a dinner plate in anything it hits.
Kessler syndrome.
The orbit of the Starlink constellation is low enough to be self-clearing. Without propulsion they de-orbit in months to years. And little particles from a collision at that altitude would deorbit even faster.
The chicken little cope of "muh kessler" is like when democrats screech about MUH CLIMOOOOOT CHAAAAAAAAANGE.
I think it would be foolish to. When you buy an IPO you're not just looking for future success, you're betting that they'll be more successful than everyone already believes it will be. SpaceX should be a fine stock to own, if more volatile than some, but only after the market has had time to have buyer's remorse about buying it at a premium.
I'll be buying it indirectly since I'm holding a handful of shares in a space ETF. Already stocks are rising before the IPO in adjacent sectors because loads of people are expecting the Space X IPO to raise waters and the ships with em.
From my limited experience, no one really gives a shit about the company's actual current day value... They only care about the hype, and future possibilities, everyone is looking to get in on something when the price is low, watch it multiple, sell half and profit, hold the rest... Find out later if there isn't any actual profit or product in the company and sell before then.
Or you have a CEO that's extremely good at bending the economy to their will via marketing, killing off superior products just so yours sells better...
i think it'll wait abut 6 months then buy puts on spacex stock
I don't get why it IPOs that high, I thought they wanted to get money. Without chance for growth, no one will invest, and it's really not a 1T company yet.
They just increased starlink prices because it's the only thing that makes money on that company.
Only as part of index funds. I've abandoned single stock picks entirely.
Yes, along with everyone else because I have index funds and they're scamming their way into early listing on the indexes.
What's the initial price?