(I will probably make this my last word on the subject if you want to have one last response, but I think there is not a lot extra to talk about on the topic. I did enjoy it though)
I feel like I'm talking to Peter Zeihan or a Zeihgeist
Kind of? I will admit that I do listen to him, and I think it is worth it because he did call a lot of stuff long before it happened, so he at least has an idea. But I dont take his word as gospel, because he has also had moments being wrong, as well as moments of being wildly wrong.
It is more that I listen to him, and if it doesnt have actual data to back up what he is saying (generally anything outside of economics), then I go looking for new info based on what he said rather than just taking him at his word. Since we are on the note, my other big Geopolitical sources are George Freidman and Chris Chappell (China Uncensored/America Uncovered), as well as minor sources.
Soledar
Good to know. Admittedly, while I considered Bakhmut as something Ukraine could win, but once it turned into an artillery slog, that is something the Russians have at least been somewhat successful at.
You posit that the Russians aren't the Soviets. I posit the Ukrainians aren't the Germans.
My main point though was that it doesnt matter if Russia has 10 million soldiers if they cant get into the fight at a rate faster than Ukraine can kill them. You are right, the core Ukrainian forces are effectively "Babies First NATO-army" with the territorials being slightly better armed militamen (with all of the positives and negatives that implies), but if Russian logistics are so bad their soldiers cant get to the fight, or are combat ineffective when they do, it doesnt matter.
That is honestly one of the biggest differences between Russia 1917 and Russia 1945. Both had severe logistical issues in their wars. The Soviets early in Barbarossa were losing to the Germans, even while outnumbering them, due to said supply issues. Then when they entered Lend Lease, and the Americans started throwing trucks and trains at them, it allowed the Soviets to start actually moving their men and their gear, and is pretty much the only reason Deep Battle as a doctrine worked (and Zhukov admitted as much frequently, to the annoyance of Stalin).
Now Russia wants to do Deep Battle, but they have been snorting their own supply of "We Won the Great Patriotic War with no help!" for so long, they forgot about their own logistic issues that were never really solved in the time since the 1950's. This is also before we get to the fact that this is not the Russia of the Soviet era, and their population is probably not up for a continued, protracted war. The mass fleeing in the face of the last round of [partial] mobilization proves that, and I dont see how a second round will change that. In fact, it may make it worse.
And the complete removal of Russia as a geopolitical enemy in our lifetime? Okay Zeihan, calm down
To be fair, I still foresee them being a major threat, especially as long as they have their nuclear stockpile. My point was that I just think this war has well and truly place Russia below China on the "Threats to America" list, and barring something coming out of left field, I dont see that changing.
Did antifa refrain from assaulting Andy Ngo because he was "asian looking"?
Not only did they not refrain from attacking Andy because he was "asian looking". They attacked random Asian men because they thought they were Andy, and when one of them called them out by saying "Do you think all Asians look the same?", the Antifa responded "yes."
but they are always, always, always whining about depictions of spiders in images, movies, and games.
It is honestly one of those things I dont get. IRL, I have a fear of heights and a fear of flying. In a huge twist of irony, I became interested in air warfare as a history, and got interested in flight games like Ace Combat and War Thunder as a result. My fear of flying is a non-issue to my enjoyment, and not even VR would be an issue.
Bottom line: It works...My only caution: Let's see what happens first.
I mean, it will probably even work even if Ukraine falls in the end. American weapon systems allowed a nation that everyone thought had maybe 2 weeks tops to survive to make it almost a year and still have a conceivable shot of not just surviving, but maybe even winning. It is absolutely no coincidence that now American arms makers are making out their capacity fulfilling orders for nations around the world. And while I [obviously] have severe issues with Biden as a president, he is at least allowing Taiwan to get in some of that action, and they are buying up modern SAM's and Anti-Ship missiles, which I can guarantee you has China sweating nervously (naval landings are already one of the hardest military operations to do, and now their equipment has been shown as a joke thanks to Russia while Taiwan is arming up with army/navy killing American gear).
All we had to do was spend what is effectively pocket-change and allow are industry to do what it was already going to do, and we have utterly destroyed one of our greatest geopolitical rivals. We would be fools to ever set boots on the ground again unless it was in defense of ourselves or a direct ally.
The Ukrainians are pulling back from Soledar now.
I hadnt heard about this, so I have to ask: Do we know what sort of condition they were in? Because if the Ukrainian forces were mauled, it could indeed be "Had to pull back to sheer quantity of Russians." But if they were still combat effective, it could just be to shorten up supply lines to deal with said Russian horde. After all, from what I have seen the Russians are still suffering extreme losses and attrition around Bakhmut (with some areas being so blasted to hell you could credible get them confused with a WW1 no-mans land photo if you made it black and white), and that is supposed to be the main thrust of the Russian efforts.
And historically it's about a 50-50 shot for the Russians to make their "mobilizations" work. Last time they pushed the Germans back to the Elbe.
Personally, I would give it more 65%-70% the mobilization fails. You cite WW2 as an example of it working, and it did. But you (and a huge amount of people both in the West and in Russia) forget that in WW2, Russia greatly benefitted from American Lend-Lease, especially in.....logistics ("Soviet troops entered Berlin in the back of American trucks, marching on American boots, and riding American trains."- Gregory Zhukov, 1945). Which is rather apropos of modern day woes the Russian army is suffering from. And while it is entirely possible Russia still has some gear left in the tank, the last round of mobilization was met with soldiers being given rusty AK's and them digging T-62's out of deep storage because they were running out of T-72's.
And on the case of the Abrams, the ones being sent over are going to have to have most of their classified shit torn out before they are sent over.
I mean, if we are sending old model M1A1's, there probably isnt much in the way of vital components that are classified anymore. Even stuff that would have been hush-hush in the past (like the gun sights and ballistic computer) are probably obsolete enough to M1A2v4's (and even those might be getting replaced by the AbramsX here in the near future, unless the Army changes their mind on it).
Here is my read on the equipment being sent, just going off of what I have seen of how Ukraine is fighting, Russia is fighting (TLDR: reports of their good shit like T-90's is few and far between, T-90's have underwhelmed when they did show up, most fighting being done with old T-80's and T-72s that will be eaten alive by most of the gear being sent), and the actual gear at each step:
Germany+Poland and several other NATO nations, Leopard 2, models A4-A6: On paper, these are entirely capable tanks that will get the job done just fine. In practice, Germany was so hesitant to send them because they have had difficulty replacing losses and even maintaining the ones that exist. Because the dirty little secret the German arms industry is not what it once was, and the parts that work well arent German anymore (for instance, H&K is mostly based out of Georgia, USA these days). So they were afraid that once people started sending their Leopards, they would get backfilled by American Abrams and their market share would never recover. The tanks themselves are fine though, and I foresee the Poles putting in great effort to help with them purely on the usual Polish basis of "Fuck Russia."
United Kingdom, Challenger 2: Probably the best option of the traditional tanks being sent their way. It is fairly straightforward maintenance-wise as well as being tough bastards, and their main weakness in NATO formations (not being compatible with all NATO ammo due to the rifled gun) is not exactly an issue for the Ukrainians.
United States, M1 Abrams+M2 Bradley: The Abrams is absolutely a capable tank, and the fuel issues are generally overhyped compared to its actual consumption. The main downside is maintenance, because while an Abrams is generally one of the more reliable tanks out there (as is usual with turbines), it is the most maintenance intensive when it does suffer a breakdown, usually with the entire powerpack having to be removed.
However, the M2 is probably one of the best vehicles the Ukrainians could have asked for for how they have been fighting the war. It will allow them to give a good force multiplier to their infantry (which has proven superior to Russian infantry thus far in the war. It has also had a battle-earned reputation of punching far above its weight, and is can also excel in a heavy scout/heavy cavalry role, which has been the bread and butter of Ukrainian tactics in the war thus far. If its not the best vehicle for their needs being sent, it is second best only to...
France, AMX-10RC: The French were getting clowned on on the military memes boards for deciding this would be the tank they would be sending. But you know what? With how Ukraine has been fighting, this is probably their best option. Ukrainian tanks have largely been characterized by being opportunity hunters not getting directly involved in the, but Ukrainian light vehicle forces have been characterized by being possessed by the cavalry spirit. Wherein they somehow obtained IRL plot armor, and proceed to do utterly retarded bullshit like charge across open fields directly into enemy fire, and somehow not die. So now you want to give them a vehicle that has similar offroad speeds to a Humvee, AND has armor plate that can stand up to medium-caliber autocannons, AND has a 105mm gun? I can foresee them doing some goofy shit with this thing.
I have been arguing exactly that for a while now, and everyone says I am a terrible person for it or something.
I have said for a while, the US should be going to these nations and peoples and telling them "We cant fight every war, and we cant be everywhere, and we cant give you something you must earn. We can open the arsenal, give you access to the means you need. But you must fight for your own freedom."
Seems Ukraine is proving that strategy can work just fine.
And they're +2 on Wicca/witches. lol.
I mean, that is because a lot of white liberal women like to cosplay as Witches, not because they actually believe in the tenets of Wicca.
I like how Dems say they like Christianity, but then hate pretty much every branch of Christianity. Which certainly doesnt help with the belief that they just wear the name as a skinsuit. Also enjoy that Satanism has high negatives with Dems, which shows it really is just a gaggle of bumbling retards that get lots of media attention.
The high negatives with Republicans on Sikhs though I find kind of strange. Every Sikh I have ever met has been great people and very strong American patriots. Is it just from the fools who get it confused with/think it is related to Islam?
It is not so much that they would be sending Abrams to Ukraine that is peeving the Germans. It is the fact that a lot of NATO countries are looking to send their Leopards to Ukraine and then replace them with Abrams (like Poland is already doing). Because as it turns out, everyone wants American-made weapons now since their shit has been kicking all of the ass in Ukraine.
Personally, I would pay good money to see an Abrams tank take on a T-90MS
While I would too, I am afraid that it would be rather anti-climactic. After all, T-90's have been getting domed by Carl Gustaf's. The hell do you expect them to do against an actual tank (although like I said in my other post, I dont think tanks would fit Ukraine's doctrine as much as rapid forces).
But Germany doesn't have that many tanks. If you send them to Ukraine, they are getting knocked out because the Ukranians won't be able to use them properly, nor maintain them.
For further proof of issues with non-trained armies using Western tanks: Germany sold some Leopards to Turkey, and then Turkey deployed them to fight the Kurds. They got absolutely fubbernucked. It wasnt just that the Kurds had well entrenched AT-missile positions, it was also that the Turks were not following the required combat doctrine of the Leopard. Specifically, they had some of the ammo racks loaded that are supposed to be left unloaded in a combat scenario because they are both in exposed positions and have limited safety features. So they were getting their tanks ammo-racked and then cussing the Germans out for giving them "defective" tanks. And this is before we get into the issue of the Turks sending their tanks in alone without infantry support.
I will give Ukraine some credit in that they have had their own tanks, so they would probably be able to maintain them, but I do agree with you that they dont have the tactical knowledge. From all of the video I have seen, Ukrainian tanks have been operating more like jackals, just picking off targets of opportunity and then getting the fuck out before they suffer significant return fire.
Ironically, the AMX-10RC's the French are talking about sending may be more up Ukraine's alley. Because while the Ukrainian tank forces have been opportunity hunters, Ukrainian light vehicles (like the Humvee's they have been using) have been possessed by the spirit of 19th Century cavalry officers. Where they will charge across an open field into enemy fire and somehow not only not die, but also utterly rout the enemy. So a high speed armored car with a tank-grade gun is probably exactly what they need.
And quite frankly, I am fine with that. Because if they keep having to lobotomise the AI to make it obey them, it means they AI will be useless when they actually want to use it to do their deranged bullshit.
To be completely fair and give the other side of the coin from Razor (not that he is wrong, just that there are other factors at play too), Bleeding Kansas had already been raging for 10 years by the time the election of Lincoln came around.
It gets forgotten about a lot because it wasnt as flashy as the Civil War that came right after it, but I am a Kansas native so I have grown up with it. And Bleeding Kansas showed one thing and one thing only: Neither side would be reasonable on the issue. The Pro-Slave advocates would lie, cheat, steal, and commit election fraud on almost comical scales if it meant keeping slavery operating in the US. And they would intimidate, shoot, and bribe anyone who refused to bend to their will. But at the same time, the Free-State advocates had been taken over by individuals who believed it was their destiny to wage a literal, Biblically-endorsed CRUSADE against the South to "Smite the heathens" for slavery, as it was a crime just as much against God as against man.
And you expect an English end to slavery, where the government just buys and frees all the slaves? When these are your factions? It was always going to end one way and one way only.
On a similar note, casting Samuel L. Jackson as Nick Fury was a race swap, as was Idris Elba as Heimdall. But those were both also well before race swapping was a red flag of ill-intent, they were likely chosen because of their acting ability rather than just their race. And both of them managed to make characters that, even if different from their comic counterparts, were unique and memorable in their own right.
For Mindy with Velma though, I think it has less to do with anything specific about message, and her just being a raging self-important narcissist who self-inserted herself and her dream OC's (donut steal!) into a her own little world, used names that everyone knows to get their attention, but then was so bad at it that even people who have nothing to do with the Culture War are saying "What the fuck?" Plus the fact that it is very obvious she is a very bitter person (there was some evidence that she hates Fred for literally no other reason than he reminds her of an ex-boyfriend).
the sequels were the first Star Wars they were exposed to and then they watched the rest.
You are just going to drop this and then not do anything with it?!
Being more serious, you have me curious. What was their opinion of the other Star Wars movies compared to the sequels? Additionally, what about Rogue One? I know it is not a super popular opinion, but I thought Jyn Erso was a good female character (in that she wasnt an insufferable "girl boss" and actually felt like she was real, even if a little flat).
As for the main topic, I am more hopeful than the rest of the thread in that I think it will die down. Never truly go away because Hollywood doesnt work that way. But as was outline in a video by Razorfist, movies and shows move through cycles of what is and isnt popular. And between cycles, all they can do is reboots and remakes, and change some things because they need to make it different enough that they can desperately hope that people will throw enough money at them to keep it afloat.
The movies we are seeing now that are all woke dogshit with messages so thick you could use it as oil? Due to the lag time in Hollywood, almost all of them were made in 2017-18, right at the height of Anti-Trump hysteria (which just made the normal trend of stuff getting Left-wing political in its "Deconstruction" phase worse).
Almost every Hollywood insider I watch says that shit doesnt fly anymore. They cant keep ignoring the fact that everything with Woke, Genderflipped Girl Bosses keeps losing epic amounts of money because even the normies hate them. My fiancé is uninitiated in the Culture War and wants nothing to do with it, but that doesnt change the fact that she utterly despise "Girl Boss" and also hates the trend of them hating women for being hot with big tits.
And Hollywood cant ignore that Top Gun made ridiculous amounts of money, that John Wick is continuing to make money 4 movies in with extremely positive word of mouth. They cant ignore that RRR came out of left field from India and proceeded to eat their lunch for a fraction of the budget. They cant ignore that historically focused War movies (All Quiet, Midway, 1917, Dunkirk) keep making money. Not anymore. Not now that they need money because it is drying up. Unfortunately, that damn lag means we wont see it for a while, but it is bound to happen. Or else Hollywood dies, and it turns out that not all of them are suicidal (only some).
Its even dumber for another reason:
Not only are there already female warriors in the Imperium, being a Space Marine is about the only thing they cant be!
They can be soldiers, commanders, and Generals in the Imperial Guard.
They can be sailors, commanders, and Captains in the Imperial Navy.
They are the only ones who can be Sisters of Battle, who through the power of raw faith and willpower are on par with Space Marines on the power scale.
They are the only ones who can be Sisters of Silence, which are an elite unit of soldiers specially adapted to being absolutely OP against psychic users and Daemons due to a genetic mutation that lets them easily cancel out their abilities.
They can be Commissars, Assassins', and other specialist people for the Imperium.
They can be Inquisitors for the Ecclesiarchy, and some of the most famous/important in lore Inquisitors are women.
Literally the only thing that women can not be is a Space Marine or a Custodies (which are just ultra-jacked Marines anyway).
If you ask me, it is because many of the people making these demands are newbs who know nothing of the lore, so some of them probably dont even know SoB are a thing, and want Marines since they are the poster boys.
As for Templin: Sad. Just Sad. I am probably not going to unsub from them, and I still like a lot of their work. But this will absolutely leave a bad taste in my mouth going forward.
On the other hand, one of the most recent major additions to the lore is Ursala Creed, who is Ursarkar Creed's daughter. Much like her father, she has become the Lord-Castellan of Cadia (even if that is an honorary title now), she is an extremely skilled commander of the Guard, and is still a skilled fighter even if that is not where her skills are best used.
"That sounds like they just gender-flipped Creed" I can already hear the retorts. Except no. She feels like she didnt really deserve the role and thinks that other commanders would do the job better (said commanders dont agree, which is why they dont take her place), she has made mistakes that Creed would have seen through and she knows it, she is constantly self-conscious of the fact that she will be compared to her father and how big of a weight that carries, and she is constantly grappling with the fact that she knows he is still alive and no one believes her (because Trazyn decided to do Trazyn things and left her proof of him still being alive).
At a very basic level, it may just be gender-flipped Creed. But it manages to do it in a way that actually feels compelling instead of forced or "woke", and infinitely better than any Mary Sue depiction.
So to that end, at least for the moment, I will continue to contend that GW's greatest sin continues to be merely greed. Sad about Templin taking this route though, because I love their stuff. I probably wont stop watching their channel, but it is definitely going to leave a bad taste in my mouth going forward.
Because their faith in the Emperor is so strong it allows them to perform literal miracles, and even caused one of their members to become so powerful she is now for all intents and purposes a Daemon fueled by devotion to the Emperor rather than devotion to Chaos.
So it is less a case of "We used extreme biological science to create ascended men who are so ascended it is arguable they arent even human anymore" and more "I believe that I can stop these bullets, and my faith is so strong I literally manifest a force field that stops the bullet".
How very dare they! Doing something so depraved as “caring about their childrens education.” Only we teachers really know what is important for them!
Unfortunately, due to budget cuts from woke cancelation attempts, we can only offer you a button that plays this clip when pressed.
I think that is fair on the penalties. But there the contract sounds like would have have done a lot to tie Crowders hands. Though perhaps not as much as originally fear.
Honestly, I have no strong feelings on the matter. I just know it was something that people were speculating on where he got the contract from, and Daily Wire fessed up. So I guess kudos for them owning it, I can at least respect that.
Whoever had "Daily Wire" as their culprit, please come collect your winnings.
Linked is a video of Jeremy Boreing, CEO of Daily Wire, going through the contract line by line and explaining it, with his ultimate response boiling down to "He seems to have misunderstood the contract and how good it is for him." At least in the comments, it seems like not a lot of people are buying it.
Well now, that could be an interesting idea for the disconnect I have seen in my life between no one having vax side effects but also seeing enough evidence online to know something is off.
No one I know IRL except for extremely elderly grandparents has had more than the initial 2 rounds of the vax and never got boosted.
I kept trying to tell people, but everyone wanted to be doomer about everything. They went all in, and it turns out that they actually didnt have anywhere near the power or control they thought they did. FAR more people than they ever planned on stood up and said "No" to Covid, and are now so past the point of giving even the mildest of a damn that the only reason I even know its still a thing is why I see people talk about it on here.
They overdrived the engine on the entire world, and it barely moved the needle. All they can do now is slink off and hope no one notices or tries to find them.
I do recommend him, but yes he is very China-centric for his main area of expertise. His producer is a Chinese expat who had been a dissident before she left, and he has a ton of contacts inside China so he has a tendency to get some info that usually slips by or doesnt come out (even if he can also get a little clickbaity sometimes).
I know I said the other post was the last word, but I figured I would answer the question.