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MagnumRabbits 2 points ago +2 / -0

...To be filled by the head of Ukrainian intelligence. Not exactly an empty suit.

His appointment isn't a game changer. However, he is much more suited to the position than the man he is replacing. Budanov's attitude alone on his and Ukraine's chances is necessary for the coming onslaught.

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MagnumRabbits 2 points ago +2 / -0

I've heard rumblings that Mattis knew of the balloons and hid their existence from Trump.

Which is... Fun

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MagnumRabbits 10 points ago +10 / -0

It's stuff like this that remind me that you can be anything in this world, but racist.

Serial murderer that killed 20 people? Horrible. Hate black people? Holy fucking shit you monster.

Rape 3 girls? Tragedy. You don't date Asians? What the fuck is wrong with you, you bigot?!

7
MagnumRabbits 7 points ago +7 / -0

Ideologues! Aren't they grand?

Yes, people like this exist in the real world. Yes, they are stupid hateful people. Yes, these ideologues are in control of the social narrative.

4
MagnumRabbits 4 points ago +4 / -0

Meh, with a side of meh sauce

The spy balloon wouldn't be picking up much more than a spy satellite could at any time.

The only question is why the Biden administration dragged it's feet. If there was nothing to lose by letting it go and nothing to gain by shooting it down, why shoot it down now?

4
MagnumRabbits 4 points ago +4 / -0

Bad predictions?

I'm old enough to remember when Japan was going to replace America as the world super power.

There's a localized conspiracy theory that the island I live on will sink under the waves in 10 or 20 years too.

The War on Terror bred some really bad predictions. I remember hearing about how Osama was going to unite the ME as one country and declare total war on America and win.

My personal prediction?

America is going to become a worldwide menace. Even more so than currently.

As Americans get more isolated from each other and the wider world, the American government will feel more emboldened to commit to more "morally grey" actions to complete policy objectives, culminating to the point where America is the chief destabilizing force in the world.

Particularly concerning is the development of the new American war doctrine, which effectively fixes the biggest domestic hole the US Government faces when conducting war policy: loud annoying hippie peaceniks constantly crowing about dead American troops and souring public opinion. Now that America is conducting its foreign policy at the end of a drone, dead Americans are few and far between (and classified), meaning no caskets for annoying hippie douche to cry about, meaning no souring of public opinion, meaning a much easier environment for the US government to erase certain problems and conduct war policy from the comfort of being thousands of miles away.

The scary part for me? The indifference of the American public. None of the horrors of war will ever visit them outside of curated media experiences that will certainly make it look fun and enjoyable (video games) or framing it as somber so that we can all be respectful to the important work completed by our men and women on the front line (television).

1
MagnumRabbits 1 point ago +1 / -0

Sorry, but you need something comically large enough to blow out the rear supports when active for more than a second.

Por que no German 88?

1
MagnumRabbits 1 point ago +1 / -0

I've got a minute in-between life here and I've been meaning to respond to you!

It's been a minute since our last posts, so there has been some developments I'll briefly run through

It looks like the first of the Polish trained Ukrainian units are dripping into the country now, but have yet to see any major conflict as their tanks get offloaded. We should start seeing them brought up to the front soon, and a little before the Russians are "ready" to take them on. These new troops will be invaluable, provided the Ukrainians act more like the Polish, rather than the Turks, with their new Leopards.

However, on the opposite side...

The Russians have been pushing to take Bakhmut now the past several days, and appear to be trying to encircle the town in an attempt to spur a mass surrender before the NATO-trained Ukrainian troops are activated in full. The Russians were able to successfully reroute forces from their southern Kherson front in order to create an extra push before the newly mobilized Russian units enter, as well as before the NATO-trained Ukrainians come in.

Ukrainians killing Russians faster than Russians replenishing losses

In theory, yes. It remains to be seen if that's something the Ukrainians will be able to do however. Using today's troop levels isn't really going to give us a fully accurate picture however, as both armies are going to look different in a few months.

That being said, the Russians are able to (for now) adequately resupply their positions in the north east of Ukraine, unlike the issues the Russians had in the south with their backs against the Black Sea. For the Ukrainians to reasonably hold back the Russians there it'll take much more firepower and bodies. Luckily for the Ukrainians, they'll have that firepower soon.

Zeihan

I've always found that he's been 25 cents shy of a dollar. Good for small pieces of info, but tends to miss or over-exaggerate the bigger picture. I think I saw one of his video thumbnails on YouTube recently that was titled "Russia is headed for the STONE AGE". Very clickbaity.

George Friedman

I loved the Next 100 years, but have yet to read The Storm before the Calm. I've heard good things though. It's on my list.

Chris Chappell

I've heard of his YouTube channel but haven't really explored it yet. He's very China-centric right? I'll have to check it out when I have time.

Future geopolitical rival

I honestly don't think America has a true "enemy" in the sense of the word anymore. The soviets were an obvious threat, but the Russians really don't fill that role anymore. And China? As much as they try I don't see them breaking out of their huge dependency on Persian gulf oil and American markets to start being an existential threat.

Either the biggest threat (in the future) to the Americans is either themselves, or future country out of left field (German R5.0?). Russia's pretty much out of gas and the runway for China is getting shorter and shorter.

1
MagnumRabbits 1 point ago +1 / -0

I feel like I'm talking to Peter Zeihan or a Zeihgeist 😅

American weapons sales/future of American warfare

The Americans don't need the Russians to prove how good it's hardware is. You can thank Trump for the increased sales, with Biden continuing the trend after a one year hiatus for media appearances (Trump sell guns to bad men, see I no sell! Except one year later...)

America has also always been the supplier of The Best Shit™ in military hardware and the rest of the world has known it for a while. Normally they have been putting it up behind a paywall of morality but that's been changing the past decade. With Trump loosening up who the US sells to, and Biden loosening up what the US sells, the US has been on the top of the top sellers list now for 8 or so years? Prior to those 8 years it wasn't like the US wasn't always in the top 3 either.

And this is not to say our geopolitical objectives are being met because of it. To the contrary the conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Libya have gone sideways on more than one occasion. And while Ukraine is not a middle eastern hump country, there is a lot more today that can go sideways.

Soledar

The usual. Bad morale, war fatigue, letters of protest, the occasional desertion.

Nothing to really note, as it's not all sunshine and pickles on the Russian lines either but that's not what I'm pointing to here. The Russians have a reputation for throwing bodies at an issue until it goes away. That's going to start in earnest now. Badly equipped, badly trained, still 500,000 Russians. Possibly more.

Just a side note, the Ukrainian retreat from Soledar opened up Ukrainian supply lines to Russian artillery attack. It's not all sunshine and rainbows for the Ukrainians over there and it's completely reasonable to expect Russia to notch a few wins before this conflict is over.

Chances for Russia? Seemed a bit rambling here

You posit that the Russians aren't the Soviets. I posit the Ukrainians aren't the Germans.

Ukrainians have roughly 60,000 NATO trained units come summer. The rest of the Ukrainian troops I'd trust as far as I could throw them.

Russians have roughly 120-130,000 troops now, and will have closer to 600,000 later. 99% of them will be shitty.

That's a blood bath. And I don't mean that as a one-sided massacre. I mean a metric fuck-ton of people on both sides will die, so much so that you can take a bath in it. That's not good for anyone except the Turkish farmers that will live there in 10 years. And while I think that Ukraine has a chance to pull a hat trick, it isn't going to be as easy as believed, certainly not a "75%" chance situation.

Russia's supply lines are comically overextended and they've done very little to fix that. And come summer, it'll be increasingly under Ukrainian bombardment. Supply, training, and equipment issues will compound for the Russians, and hopefully one or two encirclements + mass surrender of Russian troops and maybe that's best case scenario for ending this phase of the war without half a million+ dead.

Otherwise, we are looking at a protracted conflict that will grind down both countries into hellholes with victory an ever distant prospect for either side.

And the complete removal of Russia as a geopolitical enemy in our lifetime? Okay Zeihan, calm down 😅😝

1
MagnumRabbits 1 point ago +1 / -0

This is absolutely how America will "fight wars" in the future.

Bottom line: It works. A year ago, every optimistic analyst I knew gave Ukraine half a year before tanks rolled on Kiev. Not only did that not happen, Ukraine is poised to retake Crimea and southern Ukraine.

My only caution: Let's see what happens first. The Ukrainians are pulling back from Soledar now. While the loss of a salt mining town isn't necessarily a devastation or note-worthy, it's that it looks like Russia is being, well, Russia. They mass attacked until the Ukrainians are forced out by sheer numbers. You can shoot and shoot, but there always seems to be twenty Russians breathing down your neck.

Come summer, that means we are going to have a lot of dead Russians at the very least. And historically it's about a 50-50 shot for the Russians to make their "mobilizations" work. Last time they pushed the Germans back to the Elbe. Before that the ruling family instigated a nation wide revolt that resulted in their entire family being murdered and paraded through Moscow. So it can go either way!

1
MagnumRabbits 1 point ago +1 / -0

From what I've heard, the Americans aren't sending in stockpiled tanks, rather procuring from their defense industry. Which implies to me that the Americans will be sending over something more "up-to-date" (and exciting).

1
MagnumRabbits 1 point ago +1 / -0

Yes, Putin announced a "partial" mobilization of military reservists (I say this in the loosest sense possible) so by summer we're looking at about half-million Russians entering Ukraine.

What we will be watching in a few months will be a blood bath.

7
MagnumRabbits 7 points ago +7 / -0

I wouldn't call it hollow, but it isn't the silver bullet the west is looking for.

Germany has long mothballed their tank fleet, so it'll be a bit to get them online and supplied. However! And this is big, this breakthrough now allows for other NATO-aligned countries to send their Leopards, and to that end Poland has already been training Ukrainians on how to use their Leopards which should be wrapping up in a month or so.

There's going to be some variation in the timing of Leopard shipments though, as the list of countries lining up to send tanks stretches from Poland to Spain. Certain countries (Poland) are going to be a bit more prepped and ready than others (Like Spain) who basically have the tanks for the prestige.

Also, with this log-clear done by Germany, both France and the UK will send their own respective tanks as well, adding more tanks and variation (and questions).

The biggest news is that the Americans will send in some Abrams as well. Which is going to pose even more questions about logistics, training, and timing.

My take is a generally cautious as both sides are gearing up for next summer's offensives. The Leopards getting the greenlight doesn't feel as hollow to me as does the tanks that France, UK, and the US are saying they'll commit to. Four different weapons platforms with all the associated equipment, repairs, and training is a heavy logistical load to take on, even with foreign support. Further, Ukraine's strength has been in its mobility. These tanks can certainly help to that end, but with the Abrams being so resource-intensive especially, it'll require the Ukrainians to find some good strategic areas to hunker down in, which will most certainly draw in the Russians and play to the Russian advantage of raining missiles and bodies at a location until the defenders give up.

And that's not even getting into the timeline for deliveries to Ukraine. As previously mentioned there are Leopards from certain countries that will be more or less online by summer. However the French tanks, British Tanks, and American tanks aren't close to Ukraine, and haven't had Ukrainians train with them. And on the case of the Abrams, the ones being sent over are going to have to have most of their classified shit torn out before they are sent over.

Unless the Americans plan to have the Russians aim to capture one of the most advanced weapons systems on the planet. While Americans are stupid, I'd like to think they aren't that stupid (I've been wrong before).

This is the [current thing] now for Ukraine to have tanks. Russia will definitely see this as a provocation, as they've been championing their upgraded T-90s for the upcoming summer fighting.

7
MagnumRabbits 7 points ago +7 / -0

#twerkforAfrica y'all, it's the hottest new viral TikTok craze and you wouldn't believe what it's doing to the water!

Nothing. It's doing nothing for the water. The taps are dry. Get new wells installed.

12
MagnumRabbits 12 points ago +12 / -0

Queue the "Curb your Enthusiasm" theme music.

Dude should've just murdered some homeless white men. No one gives a shit about them.

2
MagnumRabbits 2 points ago +2 / -0

Damned if you do - How dare you steal other people's cultures you white devil!! Everything you do is evil and hurtful and evil!!! GAAAHHHJHHH

Damned if you don't - GRAAAAHHHHH why didn't you stupid white people save that super important thing you had no chance of saving?! You have the army and power to tell people what to do, why don't you force them to give you that thing instead of let them destroy it!!!!!!

6
MagnumRabbits 6 points ago +6 / -0

Saddest one of the group honestly. A lot of that company's personality depended on Houser.

3
MagnumRabbits 3 points ago +3 / -0

Are we going to have a conversation about Asian male aggression America?

1
MagnumRabbits 1 point ago +1 / -0

It is not so much that they would be sending Abrams to Ukraine that is peeving the Germans.

Oh! I didn't mean it like that, I didn't think we'd be annoying them, just that the Germans are using the US now to essentially protect one of their exports.

After all, T-90's have been getting domed by Carl Gustaf's.

True, but the Russian military just brought out an "upgraded" version ( Now with optional AC!) And I'd love to see how it handles in combat.

That being said, my money is on the new T90s getting torn up, but it would still be fun to watch.

I dont think tanks would fit Ukraine's doctrine as much as rapid forces

Absolutely agree.

1
MagnumRabbits 1 point ago +1 / -0

In this case, Leopards herald an even greater name.

Abrams

Last I heard, the Germans are hung up on sending the Leopards in unless Biden commits to sending in the Abrams. However, other allied countries are itching to send in their Leopards, but have been blocked by Germany so far through their respective contracts to have Leopards in the first place.

This log jam may be breaking soon, with Germany allowing certain allies to send their tanks to Ukraine. No word on Biden sending Ukraine some tanks yet though.

Personally, I would pay good money to see an Abrams tank take on a T-90MS

2
MagnumRabbits 2 points ago +2 / -0

China, probably. Even after thirty+ years of one child policy making families favor men over women.

That being said, scarcity and the resulting market forces have made women in China a valuable commodity.

4
MagnumRabbits 4 points ago +4 / -0

ask for "the Sam" the next time you come in!

Shows off a tiny cup of a half mixed latte

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MagnumRabbits 39 points ago +40 / -1

I thought white people get wonder bread and bland eggs with mayonnaise whenever the police get involved. The last time cops shot a white man was 1086 when the Moors conquered Florida from the evil white people.

He must've been a black guy that Michael Jacksoned himself, only plausible explanation.

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