I'd like some economist to explain why we're seeing such bad effects now compared to in the middle of lockdowns when the government was giving away free money. I'm sure there is some delay in the market but just curious how all that works.
The authoritarian lockdowns delayed inflation from hitting as it crushed employment, consumer demand for certain services and products as the lockdowns prevented travel, lack of tourism also reduced demand and also depressed consumer spending in general.
Today we have high consumer demand at the same time the supply chains are fucked and all the government spending has caused inflation.
All of the chickens are coming home to roost
I am not an economist either so this is the best way I can explain our current economic shitstorm in layman's terms.
The Fed has held off inflation for 25 years, so they are using the pandemic as a excuse to let inflation run "hot", their words not mine. Consumer demand is down, it's literally tanking because gas prices and as a consequence, food prices have skyrocketed. Also the fact that everyone was stuck home for two years, so they spent their free cash on consumer goods and home improvement, but that has pretty much dried up now that people are out of the house and it's summer. Mortgages are now close to 7%, so not only can you over pay for a home, you can get raked over the coals by little hats interests too. That means expect another housing bubble crash from all the idiots that got adjustable rate mortgages thinking it would stay at 2% forever.
When should we expect mortgage rates to go back down, or rather what conditions should I be on the lookout for that would result in them going back down at some point in the future?
When should we expect mortgage rates to go back down, or rather what conditions should I be on the lookout for that would result in them going back down at some point in the future?
When people start losing their houses because they can't afford interest, prices will begin to fall.
Part of it is that GDP includes government spending. Thus, if literally no one is working and getting paid by the money printer, GDP line still go up. Once the printer stops, GDP flatlines even though there is no actual difference in economic output.
Our whole economy is fake and gay. The US has long since off-shored most of its manufacturing in order to make stock market brrrrrrrr even harder. We're mostly a financialized ponzi economy now.
Churchill is a cunt, and that original quote is peak midwit.
Rothbard has a version of GDP that counts government spending as wealth destroyed. There is also another school of thought that economic health is best measured in savings, which I'm partial towards.
Well, yeah, but sometimes you need a git in your corner.
My wider point was that all of the methods of measuring the economy have some deficiencies. GDP is simply the one that has the most people comfortable with it's deficiencies.
Also, let me put the contraction another way, and why you don't see the price effects immediately.
If you're a business selling flowers, how averse are you to raising prices? Yes, pass shit to consumers and all that, but if the price jumps are going to be serious, you'll scare people off with sticker shock. What about firing people? You actually need your workers, and it's pretty rough to just ditch people. They get upset.
You'll try to cut a lot of corners until you decide "fuck it, it's either prices go up, or we're done for." But what happens in inflation is that the price of everything is going up for everyone. So every business that exists in the marketplace now has to go through that. From the people who mine phosphate, to the farmers who produce manuver, to the soil and fertilizer retailers, to the seed producers, to the flower pot makers, all so you can sell your flower to a consumer. Each and every one has to go through that process one person and business at a time. So, it takes time for the effect to flow through the economy.
Just to be clear: even the global supply chain issues, that's not just California. It's also the shut down of workforces in 2020, now 2 years on. Each part of the system is being effected every step of the way, each in their own time.
I've said it before. Trump is probably thanking his lucky stars that he "lost", because if he hadn't I'm not sure he could have avoided this, and you would have had him taking this on the chin, rather than the Democrats.
Because it's about what's being effected and how the values of things are calculated.
Millions of small business closing down? Establishment statistics: "Good. Kill yourself. Buy shit from Walmart you fucking plebian."
The knock-on effects of the entire global economy slowing down, which then effects massive supply chains, and causes so many problems that money can't be re-distributed fast enough, where inflation begins to catch up on the base level prices, effecting all consumer and producer spending all at the same time.
Establishment statistics: "Oh shit, the slaves slowed their consumption for some reason... Anybody know why?"
Buy the way, while everyone is wondering about all those food factories burning down, you just missed the fact that the mortgage industry is literally dying. Every single mortgage company is firing 10%, 20%, 30% of it's workforce because the mortgage system which supports the world economy through the fiancialization of international debt through mortgage backed securities is dead. As in, already dead. As in, you can't save it.
The recession that they will announce in October started in February.
If a lifeguard was trying to save me from drowning when I’m treading water, and his solution is to hold my head under water. I’d prefer the life guard to not try.
I'd like some economist to explain why we're seeing such bad effects now compared to in the middle of lockdowns when the government was giving away free money. I'm sure there is some delay in the market but just curious how all that works.
The authoritarian lockdowns delayed inflation from hitting as it crushed employment, consumer demand for certain services and products as the lockdowns prevented travel, lack of tourism also reduced demand and also depressed consumer spending in general.
Today we have high consumer demand at the same time the supply chains are fucked and all the government spending has caused inflation.
All of the chickens are coming home to roost
I am not an economist either so this is the best way I can explain our current economic shitstorm in layman's terms.
The Fed has held off inflation for 25 years, so they are using the pandemic as a excuse to let inflation run "hot", their words not mine. Consumer demand is down, it's literally tanking because gas prices and as a consequence, food prices have skyrocketed. Also the fact that everyone was stuck home for two years, so they spent their free cash on consumer goods and home improvement, but that has pretty much dried up now that people are out of the house and it's summer. Mortgages are now close to 7%, so not only can you over pay for a home, you can get raked over the coals by little hats interests too. That means expect another housing bubble crash from all the idiots that got adjustable rate mortgages thinking it would stay at 2% forever.
When should we expect mortgage rates to go back down, or rather what conditions should I be on the lookout for that would result in them going back down at some point in the future?
When people start losing their houses because they can't afford interest, prices will begin to fall.
Part of it is that GDP includes government spending. Thus, if literally no one is working and getting paid by the money printer, GDP line still go up. Once the printer stops, GDP flatlines even though there is no actual difference in economic output.
tl;dr GDP is a lie.
Our whole economy is fake and gay. The US has long since off-shored most of its manufacturing in order to make stock market brrrrrrrr even harder. We're mostly a financialized ponzi economy now.
Ha ha ha ha ha.
NOT FOR LONG
To paraphrase Churchill, GDP is the worst economic measurement.
Apart from all of the others.
Churchill is a cunt, and that original quote is peak midwit.
Rothbard has a version of GDP that counts government spending as wealth destroyed. There is also another school of thought that economic health is best measured in savings, which I'm partial towards.
Well, yeah, but sometimes you need a git in your corner.
My wider point was that all of the methods of measuring the economy have some deficiencies. GDP is simply the one that has the most people comfortable with it's deficiencies.
Most people are comfortable with GDP because they've been told GDP is important. People like lines that go up.
That doesn't make a lot of sense either.
He was the ancap, so it makes sense from that frame. Either way, GDP is fundamentally a political instrument.
Yeah, GDP is another BS measure to go with many others like gender equality.
Also, let me put the contraction another way, and why you don't see the price effects immediately.
If you're a business selling flowers, how averse are you to raising prices? Yes, pass shit to consumers and all that, but if the price jumps are going to be serious, you'll scare people off with sticker shock. What about firing people? You actually need your workers, and it's pretty rough to just ditch people. They get upset.
You'll try to cut a lot of corners until you decide "fuck it, it's either prices go up, or we're done for." But what happens in inflation is that the price of everything is going up for everyone. So every business that exists in the marketplace now has to go through that. From the people who mine phosphate, to the farmers who produce manuver, to the soil and fertilizer retailers, to the seed producers, to the flower pot makers, all so you can sell your flower to a consumer. Each and every one has to go through that process one person and business at a time. So, it takes time for the effect to flow through the economy.
Just to be clear: even the global supply chain issues, that's not just California. It's also the shut down of workforces in 2020, now 2 years on. Each part of the system is being effected every step of the way, each in their own time.
I've said it before. Trump is probably thanking his lucky stars that he "lost", because if he hadn't I'm not sure he could have avoided this, and you would have had him taking this on the chin, rather than the Democrats.
Because it's about what's being effected and how the values of things are calculated.
Millions of small business closing down? Establishment statistics: "Good. Kill yourself. Buy shit from Walmart you fucking plebian."
The knock-on effects of the entire global economy slowing down, which then effects massive supply chains, and causes so many problems that money can't be re-distributed fast enough, where inflation begins to catch up on the base level prices, effecting all consumer and producer spending all at the same time.
Establishment statistics: "Oh shit, the slaves slowed their consumption for some reason... Anybody know why?"
Buy the way, while everyone is wondering about all those food factories burning down, you just missed the fact that the mortgage industry is literally dying. Every single mortgage company is firing 10%, 20%, 30% of it's workforce because the mortgage system which supports the world economy through the fiancialization of international debt through mortgage backed securities is dead. As in, already dead. As in, you can't save it.
The recession that they will announce in October started in February.
If you're looking for something to read. Basic Economics by Thomas Sowell is worth any money you pay for it.
Yeah but have you considered the following:
#gottem
Might be more amusing were there not far, far too many people with TDS who sincerely feel this way.
If a lifeguard was trying to save me from drowning when I’m treading water, and his solution is to hold my head under water. I’d prefer the life guard to not try.
"He's doing his best" is another one that is never the glowing endorsement someone assumes it to be before speaking it.
The Carter administration, as bad as it was, still had to operate under the pretense that the federal government cared about Americans.
USA ! USA !
Well, Shanghai is currently an open air prison.
Midterm elections ought to be interesting.
Should be interesting to see how bad the cheating will be next time.
I mean, at least Carter was actually elected.
That we know of. Election rigging has probably been occurring for far longer than most of us know or could ever conclusively prove.
Reminds me that I really need to pester the GF to get on planting veggies in all the raised beds I banged together for her last year.
NO it's because of GREED and HUWHITE SUPREEEEEMACY!