This is one of those topics that I find interesting because there's no predictable next step, unlike the weekly cycle of Israel bombing Lebanon or the Trump admin covering up Epstein files.
I think the war must end. It's far too costly to last forever. The US has severely depleted its ammunition reserves, and it seems clear that they're hurting more than Iran at this point. We don't have a lot of information as to how badly the regime is hurting financially with the blockade of their oil, but judging from the skirmishes between the two parties, Trump keeps bluffing and Iran keeps calling it. Ultimately, the Iranians simply have to survive to maintain the upper hand in the conflict. Their speedboat fleets and drone swarms are enough to retain their position.
The Iranians are doing a little better than surviving, though. They keep taking out US radar installations in the ME, which are extremely costly, not easily replaced, and create significant strategic vulnerabilities for any further US campaigns.
The problem on Trump's side is that this is as close to a must-win scenario as he can get, for a couple of obvious reasons. One of them is that the Strait of Hormuz has become a household name, and any further Iranian blockades or tariffs will essentially be total repudiations of his foreign policy success, as well as US military reputation. The embarrassment would be comparable to Reagan pulling back the Marines after the 1984 barracks bombing in Lebanon - an admission that the US is too weak to dictate Middle Eastern politics.
The other problem is that Israel has puppet strings on Trump and, to this point, have made him dance any number they want. But those puppet strings may be fraying at this point, because the battlefield reality is the ultimate power in the world, not Israeli propaganda.
So will Trump actually concede to Iran and try to sell the resulting disaster to the American public? I think this is the most likely option, although I am having trouble seeing how he'll do it. Any finalized deal will include retention of nuclear material and at least partial control of the strait, and the Iranians won't keep quiet about it to help Trump save face. On the contrary, they will rub it in his face constantly. The idea of Trump letting this happen to him is crazy, but "bluster then quietly withdraw with a face-saving deal" was his exact MO with the Houthi bombing campaign last year.
The other option is that Trump goes scorched earth and annihilates Iranian power, water, and oil. Iran would then retaliate in its dying breaths with annihilation of oil refineries and desalinization plants in Israel and the Gulf states, giving us $10 gas and tens of millions of refugees, among many unpredictable consequences. I would've thought this would be inevitable given the iron grip Netanyahu has on Trump, but now I'm not so sure.
Either way, it seems the US-Israel axis is on the way to a big fat L.
No clue but Trump is a fucking moron for getting involved. I haven't visited the Donald since it started. What a disappointment.
When I asked people on TD why no previous US president bombed Iran if "they declared war on us 47 years ago", the answer was that previous presidents were all bad. They went from "no new wars, Cheney is a warmonger" to "previous presidents are bad because they didn't start enough wars in the Middle East".
Not bashing them all, there was a significant dissenting minority.
I really think this is the replacement Trump. Like he's dead or a hostage or something and the government is straight up being ruled by an imposter puppet.
This is likely Israel’s last chance to enact regime change in Iran, something they’ve wanted desperately ever since all those Ukranian jews settled there in the first place. With Boomers dying off and all other supporting virtually nonexisten I don’t see them taking this lying down.
Whether that’s a false flag or some other type of escalation remains to be seen.
I think Iran's regime is already pro-israel. There's jews living in Iran, the government heads have assets and children in usa and there's been cia niggardry in this country forever.
I wouldn't say America is hurting, more that this is a lesser Vietnam as America HAS the tools to glass Iran into a parking lot but they don't have the political incentive to do that nor the support to forever war this.
I don't doubt Iran will try to posture that they 'won' but they've lost so much infrastructure, leaders, any goodwill from neighbours as EVERY Gulf state is arming up and building up a competent military and they'll do that BEFORE Iran can re-arm.
The conflict was a loss for EVERYONE it is only a matter of who can lick their wounds quicker and America can probably do that faster so long as domestic is the main focus now.
The mentalities behind this are different than you suppose.
Iran fully believes that this is an existential battle for them. In their eyes they are winning outright and demonstrating that smaller states do not have to be afraid of us.
With regards to their neighbors, they haven't lost face, they've gained it. Arabs are animals that walk upright. They respect strength and basically nothing else. Iran has demonstrated strength, and we have demonstrated not only weakness but inability to defend our supposed allies.
Brother that is an admission that America is hurting. Vietnam hurt a lot, in terms of blood, treasure, and reputation, and it is rightfully seen as a major US defeat.
And they're going to do what with their militaries? Wrest away control of the strait? How?
The US just took their best shot at Iran to 1) take out their nuclear capability and 2) change their regime, and fell short of both goals. That's an Iranian victory.
Unless you want to claim a Phyricc victory is a victory, it really isn't.
If it was, China would've invaded Taiwan by now and North Korea would have invaded South Korea.
They don't because they don't want to be in a state after that they have rebuild bridges both literally and figuratively as put it this way, did Ukraine win or just survive?
Iran was the one who got attacked, so a successful defense is a victory even though it cost them many lives and perhaps billions in military equipment. You could argue it's ultimately a defeat if their strategic position was crippled by the war, but if anything it seems to be strengthened. They didn't exercise control over the strait before, but now they do.
I see your point, but Ukraine's survival is still in question. If they ultimately retain Kiev, Odessa, etc even if they lose the Donbass, I'd say that's a partial victory, yeah.
You could compare it to the Soviet Union after WW2, although Iran's position isn't nearly as dominant. But in terms of the country being in ruins (Iran less so obviously) but the strategic situation being much improved.
Ukraine was the aggressor. And it is losing.
The ukraine
can't wait to stop hearing about that corrupt shit hole
Apples v oranges
China will never invade Taiwan because they want the economy intact, not on fire. They're just going to maintain pressure while their agents amass political influence amd eventually they'll conquer Taiwan democratically.
North Korea doesn't give a shit about South Korea, the Kim's just want to play in their little sandbox with China's money.
Iran hasn't lost shit. All the stuff we hit was easily rebuilt or decoys. The political assassinations were probably the most effective thing, as it's clear the current guys don't want to die. but the Iranian people are mad as hell and want total war. They're going to keep pushing even more hardliners into power and getting even more aggressive. They wiped all of the US's regional power out, they've broken the sanctions on them, they've claimed the strait, and there's nothing we can do about it ever again. This is a massive win for them.
lol
One glance at the MoU completely dismisses your entire ill-informed post.
Be careful with nukes. Once that box is opened, it isn't going back. Use nukes in Iran and Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Western Europe and a number of others are fair game.
I don't see the fraying, as I have yet to see Trump do anything to oppose it other than talk. He says one thing and then does the opposite, over and over again. The strings won't be clipped until he is impeached after the midterms.
I can't wait to see his reaction when he realizes that MAGA no longer has his back because he betrayed us on every policy we voted for, and MIGA no longer has his back because he is no longer useful to them. My only bit of optimism is that he is shitting the bed hard enough that he might inadvertently do one thing for us by taking the entire GOP down with him.
Why would the strings be clipped when all the impeachers are as beholden to Israel as Trump is?
Like Trump, they also say one thing and do the opposite.
One of the biggest problems going in I had with it all is there wasn't a reasonable win condition. I'm not the lefty non-violence is the answer type on being against it. If I throw out trusting Israeli intel about as much as I trust an Indian scammer and just assume we are in this war, then it comes to what? Could we go over there, flatten them, and win? Sure. If the claim is we are out of ammo reserves, I take that more as we are out of reserves that we are willing to use. If we went into a real war against Iran, the sheer resource might of the US crushes Iran. The problem with that is there's pretty much zero political capital to go start a real war over there. The only ones that even want it are the Israel-first fake Americans.
So it comes back to we don't have a win condition. The win is crushing Iran, and the cost to crush them is more than the political capital the war has. Whatever I've seen in this deal is probably a good deal for us, and puts an end to it all, and honestly I think those it stands to piss off the most are the same Israel-first fake Americans.
It doesn't have to be sold. Most of the news cycle will flip quickly. My biggest concern with the whole deal as I've seen is there's no chance Israel goes along with it, and we won't tell them to piss off.
Yes, the US could destroy Iran tomorrow. You can hide drones but you can't hide power plants. But that would also mean the destruction of Gulf oil production and Israeli water.
Pissing off the Mark Levins of the world, yes. I'm interested in how this might be a good deal for us, though.
It's a good deal because it gets us out of some bullshit we never should have had anything to do with to begin with. We can't go back and have never started. We aren't going to go flatten Iran with sheer military might. The only other answer is to piddle around for years shooting bombs at each other and fighting over some water passages. I'd rather take a weaker deal, call it a good deal and move on than that.
That seems what Trump really wants to do. I strongly doubt he ever wanted military action on Iran in the first place.
There's not a win condition, it's win-win. Or maybe win-win-win.
We demonstrated that America can completely destroy a modern military with advanced Russian and Chinese defenses.
We tilted the global economics in our favor, where every dollar we were spending more in gas I'd say was two dollars into the country (probably an underestimate..).
We've repositioned other ME countries toward US and against Iran, and will be selling more weapons to them.
And Trump has re-established madman status giving the US much more negotiating power.
...it's not only wins, for instance we lost a couple planes, but I'll let others make that case.
edit: oh no one-line rage replies, truth really hit a nerve
Delusional cope.
Ok FoxNews
What defenses? And what have they exactly destroyed, other than such anti-air as Iran had?
That's an impressive level of delusion, on par with believing that higher housing prices are an asset and not a cost.
He re-established total buffoon status, which decreases US negotiation power even further. Not that I'm complaining, try using it for something good first.
As I mentioned, they had advanced defenses from Russia and China. Iran was a modern army.
We decapitated their entire leadership, could fly over their country any time we wanted, and took I think zero casualties doing it. This is the reality.
You guys shouldn't live in a make-believe world. How does it help you to pretend.
No, they really didn't, nor would Iranians' inability to use Russian and Chinese weaponry say anything about the inherent quality of those weapons. Remember when the Taliban with AK-47 kicked the ass of your Afghan army armed with state-of-the-art American weaponry?
'I think'. Looks like you didn't think hard enough. Also, just so you know, you were using stand-off munitions because you couldn't fly over their country at all, let alone any time you wanted.
How get a mind, such as it is, get this possessed by propaganda?
Saint Anthony: There will come a time when people who are mad point at those who are sane and say: you're mad, you're not like us.
lol doubling down on the copium.
"Iranians are too stoopid to use Chinese radar"
Apparently, the very smart CIA viagra-supplied Afghans of yours were too stupid to use American Wunderwaffen.
You're doubling down on "no casualties" and "flying over their country at will"? Dude, you know literally nothing.
You're just stringing words together now.
Counting some mechanical failures and accidents is like saying people died of covid instead of with covid - it wasn't Iran that did it. You're up in arms whether it was 0 or 5 that died? That's nuts.
We rescued a guy inside their territory and took no losses except from mechanical failure.
You guys have completely lost the plot here.
nigger tier post lmfao
I’m sure we’ll try again in a short amount of time, but the simple fact is that Iran kamikaze drones blew up our and Israel’s weather control radars, ending the drought that Mossad was counting on causing a revolution. Mossad and the CIA were to overconfident that a few bombs and assassination would be enough for the Iranian people to topple their leadership amid the drought, but all that happened was a bunch of potential revolutionaries has the water recede away and leave them high and dry for the Iranian government to imprison/kill them all. So back to square one.
Not quite. It'd be a far greater embarrassment, because no vital US interest was at stake in 1984. That's why he was so quick to pull them out. Here, a vital US interest would be at stake, and you'd have to accept its loss anyway.
I doubt most Americans will care. And it's not as if their opinions matters to the powers that be. That said, most of the stuff that Iran wants would also be good for Americans. How does it serve America to sanction Iran? The problem is that the people who do have influence, the warmongers, are universally against it.
So my expectation is that Trump will try to pull tricks on Iran. Maybe stabilize the energy market, make a plan for Hormuz, and then attack again. Or maybe (smarter) renege on the concessions made in the deal, and when Iran retaliates by not upholding its end, claim Iranian ceasefire violations and put into action an actually smart plan.
It might seem at a low ebb because Trump trashed him publicly. It might just be for public consumption. Trump is criticized for being Netanyahu's puppet and Netanyahu is criticized for following Trump too much. This benefits both.
Turns out Iran actually is two weeks away from enriching uranium and they nuke Tel Aviv seconds after the peace deal is signed.
Iran is doing fine. The US cannot win without a full ground invasion and we can't do that. Israel will not allow Iran to be at peace. They will keep attacking Lebanon and then crying out bout Iran retaliating. Or they will nuke Iran.
Israel fears if they use nukes then the US will abandon them (like we are supposed to treat rogue nuclear powers). But I think in fact this wouldn't happen. They could nuke Iran and we'd still make excuses and defend them. The whole world would hate us but we'd still do it.
This doesn't end until someone invades Israel, but that seems unlikely. So get comfy with neverending war.
Trump does multiple victory laps and claims mission accomplished as the status quo goes back to exactly how it was before the war.
Meanwhile the Iran blunder and everything related to it becomes the major talking point for democrats to sway the normies and the republicans lose the midterms.
The result is a government that still sucks Israel's cock, but is also super gay and controlling and further accelerates open borders for brownie points, and will pack the courts in 2029 so that nobody can slow them down.
" They keep taking out US radar installations in the ME, which are extremely costly, not easily replaced, and create significant strategic vulnerabilities for any further US campaigns."
How do you know this? both the Iran and Ukraine war are wars of complete news blackout. It's really hard to know what's going on, at all.
How many US soldiers have been injured/killed in this war even?
Radar sites and successful strikes on them are widely reported. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-06/iran-hits-key-us-radar-deepening-gulf-missile-defense-woes
Open source intelligence has actually never been better, but you won't see it in mainstream news (which has never been worse arguably).
Yes that's true, what I meant was the overall picture reporting.
How is the war going? Strategically I know badly because the straight is closed, but we're missing the middle layer of information.
You literally have to find independent journalists covering the war and join things like telegram channels and such to get an idea of what actually going on.
If you listen to any sort of MSM news or even regular "normie-web" new source, you're going to be severely misinformed.
Second option seems more likely to happen
Kikes don't care about gas prices or even military loses, to them Americans are merely pieces on a chess board
I'd guess that it's the same as the Afganistan trap. If the war goes poorly, use it to dismantle the country. If the war goes goodly, overthrow the puppet.