This is one of those topics that I find interesting because there's no predictable next step, unlike the weekly cycle of Israel bombing Lebanon or the Trump admin covering up Epstein files.

I think the war must end. It's far too costly to last forever. The US has severely depleted its ammunition reserves, and it seems clear that they're hurting more than Iran at this point. We don't have a lot of information as to how badly the regime is hurting financially with the blockade of their oil, but judging from the skirmishes between the two parties, Trump keeps bluffing and Iran keeps calling it. Ultimately, the Iranians simply have to survive to maintain the upper hand in the conflict. Their speedboat fleets and drone swarms are enough to retain their position.

The Iranians are doing a little better than surviving, though. They keep taking out US radar installations in the ME, which are extremely costly, not easily replaced, and create significant strategic vulnerabilities for any further US campaigns.

The problem on Trump's side is that this is as close to a must-win scenario as he can get, for a couple of obvious reasons. One of them is that the Strait of Hormuz has become a household name, and any further Iranian blockades or tariffs will essentially be total repudiations of his foreign policy success, as well as US military reputation. The embarrassment would be comparable to Reagan pulling back the Marines after the 1984 barracks bombing in Lebanon - an admission that the US is too weak to dictate Middle Eastern politics.

The other problem is that Israel has puppet strings on Trump and, to this point, have made him dance any number they want. But those puppet strings may be fraying at this point, because the battlefield reality is the ultimate power in the world, not Israeli propaganda.

So will Trump actually concede to Iran and try to sell the resulting disaster to the American public? I think this is the most likely option, although I am having trouble seeing how he'll do it. Any finalized deal will include retention of nuclear material and at least partial control of the strait, and the Iranians won't keep quiet about it to help Trump save face. On the contrary, they will rub it in his face constantly. The idea of Trump letting this happen to him is crazy, but "bluster then quietly withdraw with a face-saving deal" was his exact MO with the Houthi bombing campaign last year.

The other option is that Trump goes scorched earth and annihilates Iranian power, water, and oil. Iran would then retaliate in its dying breaths with annihilation of oil refineries and desalinization plants in Israel and the Gulf states, giving us $10 gas and tens of millions of refugees, among many unpredictable consequences. I would've thought this would be inevitable given the iron grip Netanyahu has on Trump, but now I'm not so sure.

Either way, it seems the US-Israel axis is on the way to a big fat L.