This is one of those topics that I find interesting because there's no predictable next step, unlike the weekly cycle of Israel bombing Lebanon or the Trump admin covering up Epstein files.
I think the war must end. It's far too costly to last forever. The US has severely depleted its ammunition reserves, and it seems clear that they're hurting more than Iran at this point. We don't have a lot of information as to how badly the regime is hurting financially with the blockade of their oil, but judging from the skirmishes between the two parties, Trump keeps bluffing and Iran keeps calling it. Ultimately, the Iranians simply have to survive to maintain the upper hand in the conflict. Their speedboat fleets and drone swarms are enough to retain their position.
The Iranians are doing a little better than surviving, though. They keep taking out US radar installations in the ME, which are extremely costly, not easily replaced, and create significant strategic vulnerabilities for any further US campaigns.
The problem on Trump's side is that this is as close to a must-win scenario as he can get, for a couple of obvious reasons. One of them is that the Strait of Hormuz has become a household name, and any further Iranian blockades or tariffs will essentially be total repudiations of his foreign policy success, as well as US military reputation. The embarrassment would be comparable to Reagan pulling back the Marines after the 1984 barracks bombing in Lebanon - an admission that the US is too weak to dictate Middle Eastern politics.
The other problem is that Israel has puppet strings on Trump and, to this point, have made him dance any number they want. But those puppet strings may be fraying at this point, because the battlefield reality is the ultimate power in the world, not Israeli propaganda.
So will Trump actually concede to Iran and try to sell the resulting disaster to the American public? I think this is the most likely option, although I am having trouble seeing how he'll do it. Any finalized deal will include retention of nuclear material and at least partial control of the strait, and the Iranians won't keep quiet about it to help Trump save face. On the contrary, they will rub it in his face constantly. The idea of Trump letting this happen to him is crazy, but "bluster then quietly withdraw with a face-saving deal" was his exact MO with the Houthi bombing campaign last year.
The other option is that Trump goes scorched earth and annihilates Iranian power, water, and oil. Iran would then retaliate in its dying breaths with annihilation of oil refineries and desalinization plants in Israel and the Gulf states, giving us $10 gas and tens of millions of refugees, among many unpredictable consequences. I would've thought this would be inevitable given the iron grip Netanyahu has on Trump, but now I'm not so sure.
Either way, it seems the US-Israel axis is on the way to a big fat L.
I wouldn't say America is hurting, more that this is a lesser Vietnam as America HAS the tools to glass Iran into a parking lot but they don't have the political incentive to do that nor the support to forever war this.
I don't doubt Iran will try to posture that they 'won' but they've lost so much infrastructure, leaders, any goodwill from neighbours as EVERY Gulf state is arming up and building up a competent military and they'll do that BEFORE Iran can re-arm.
The conflict was a loss for EVERYONE it is only a matter of who can lick their wounds quicker and America can probably do that faster so long as domestic is the main focus now.
The mentalities behind this are different than you suppose.
Iran fully believes that this is an existential battle for them. In their eyes they are winning outright and demonstrating that smaller states do not have to be afraid of us.
With regards to their neighbors, they haven't lost face, they've gained it. Arabs are animals that walk upright. They respect strength and basically nothing else. Iran has demonstrated strength, and we have demonstrated not only weakness but inability to defend our supposed allies.
Brother that is an admission that America is hurting. Vietnam hurt a lot, in terms of blood, treasure, and reputation, and it is rightfully seen as a major US defeat.
And they're going to do what with their militaries? Wrest away control of the strait? How?
The US just took their best shot at Iran to 1) take out their nuclear capability and 2) change their regime, and fell short of both goals. That's an Iranian victory.
Unless you want to claim a Phyricc victory is a victory, it really isn't.
If it was, China would've invaded Taiwan by now and North Korea would have invaded South Korea.
They don't because they don't want to be in a state after that they have rebuild bridges both literally and figuratively as put it this way, did Ukraine win or just survive?
Iran was the one who got attacked, so a successful defense is a victory even though it cost them many lives and perhaps billions in military equipment. You could argue it's ultimately a defeat if their strategic position was crippled by the war, but if anything it seems to be strengthened. They didn't exercise control over the strait before, but now they do.
I see your point, but Ukraine's survival is still in question. If they ultimately retain Kiev, Odessa, etc even if they lose the Donbass, I'd say that's a partial victory, yeah.
You could compare it to the Soviet Union after WW2, although Iran's position isn't nearly as dominant. But in terms of the country being in ruins (Iran less so obviously) but the strategic situation being much improved.
Ukraine was the aggressor. And it is losing.
The ukraine
can't wait to stop hearing about that corrupt shit hole
Apples v oranges
China will never invade Taiwan because they want the economy intact, not on fire. They're just going to maintain pressure while their agents amass political influence amd eventually they'll conquer Taiwan democratically.
North Korea doesn't give a shit about South Korea, the Kim's just want to play in their little sandbox with China's money.
Iran hasn't lost shit. All the stuff we hit was easily rebuilt or decoys. The political assassinations were probably the most effective thing, as it's clear the current guys don't want to die. but the Iranian people are mad as hell and want total war. They're going to keep pushing even more hardliners into power and getting even more aggressive. They wiped all of the US's regional power out, they've broken the sanctions on them, they've claimed the strait, and there's nothing we can do about it ever again. This is a massive win for them.
lol
One glance at the MoU completely dismisses your entire ill-informed post.
Be careful with nukes. Once that box is opened, it isn't going back. Use nukes in Iran and Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Western Europe and a number of others are fair game.