There won't be a games "crash" like you saw in the 1980s, because the video game market is too big and too stable now. You might see a crash in certain genres or platforms, but not across video games as a whole.
MMOs have been in basically a slow motion crash for a long time now, yet when new games like New World and Los Ark come out, millions of people rush to play them (then drop them within days or weeks).
Video games have definitely stagnated in a lot of ways, yet there are still releases like Elden Ring that everyone goes crazy for.
the video game market is too big and too stable now.
Yea there is no one "video game market".
Certain segments like say Playstation, Xbox, Steam, mobile games, indie games, etc might crash but the market as a whole is too big. At least if we're talking internal reasons.
What could crash all those segments if is the economy world wide crashes. Games are a luxury and those are the first to be cut from people's budgets. That looks like a real possibility thanks to Western governments and their green hysteria coupled with sanctions against their own energy supplies.
If there's any major "crash" I think it'll have to be centered around microtransactions, especially mobile - gacha - games whose entire business model is predicated on whales spending $1K monthly on new shiny skins, waifus, or other collectibles.
As for what the "crash" would be, I'm guessing some sort of legislation, or existing laws coupled with tighter ratings/enforcement that somehow tanks revenue for companies.
Other than that, I really don't see what there is to plummet. All new games suck, I only play old games or smaller publisher titles in the first place. Industry can switch around actors due to bankruptcy, consolidation due to Chinese/Saudi influence, etc., but the end result will always be rubbish.
For example, I don't think the community funding model will ever die, people are retards. See: Star Citizen, pre-ordering, applauding or tolerating censorship elsewhere while it doesn't affect themselves.
Unless I missed something I don't see how EA losing their license due to FIFA realizing how bad of a business deal it was, or Epic Games failing to increase their profit margins - both in terms of battle royale phase fading away and the Apple lawsuit - denotes a market crash.
Gacha and mobile gaming hasn't blinked an eye. They have infighting due to market saturation / time conflict, which is inherent in the F2P psychological model of grinding but that's nothing new. Attention may shift from game to game, but the overall base remains strong.
I imagine the same applies to console gaming. EA losing its license only means other publisher(s) pick up where they left, and sports fags continue to whale out.
I legit find AAA games super boring. I much prefer 2D aesthetics or smaller titles, but I'm also generally speaking a single player RPG fag. Much easier to avoid rot when not having to deal with multiplayer.
God I would love for a crash. The destruction of every major game company on earth is worth the loss of all IPs. Hell it would be a fresh start for new ideas for indies to rise from the ashes. No share holders, no stocks, to publishers.
Diversity and HR policies will continue sucking what joy remains from game development, all the competent creative people will flee; and all you'll have left is the drama queens and the people who are just there to collect a paycheck and will do whatever tasks are assigned to them no matter how nonsensical they are.
Or:
Improvements to computer hardware will slow to a point where newer models of computer will no longer be able to make up for inefficient code, and there won't be enough programmers with low-level programming knowledge to be able to optimize the code to improve performance. Possibility #1 may exacerbate this effect, as programmers with that low-level knowledge may not want to put up with the diversity and HR nonsense.
Your first hypothetical isn’t a hypothetical; you are describing the actual current state of most of AAA development.
Your second hypothetical is a complete non-issue in modern game development. The vast majority of today’s games are created using licensed game engines and prebaked assets. You don’t need chip-level knowledge to code a video game in 2022.
you are describing the actual current state of most of AAA development
Yes, and eventually it passes the event horizon where it becomes difficult or impossible to make anything worth playing. Which happens all the time in other industries; why would gaming be immune?
You don’t need chip-level knowledge to code a video game in 2022.
Someone still has to make the game engines. How many people know how to do that? Is that number going up or down over time?
the people who are just there to collect a paycheck and will do whatever tasks are assigned to them no matter how nonsensical they are.
To be fair that's most of what you need, the only real creative tasks needing to be done would be art and name related since the rest of game design can be done by playing into a genre and maybe adding a twist from another genre.
It is true that is most of what you need. However in my experience (which isn't games but software development for some pretty expensive and complex equipment) successful projects often have a handful of talented people who give a damn well beyond a simple desire to earn a paycheck..
Big companies do a pretty good job crushing those guys as it is, yet somehow they keep springing up like weeds. If they ever actually succeed in killing the goose that lays the golden eggs...then you just have software like they have in India. How many cool games do you see come out of India?
Several big studios will crash and burn, but there will be plenty of small developpers making good, fun, nice-looking games that will find niches.
Big studios rely too much on micro-transactions to fund themselves as the bloated spending monster they turned into.
The abusive, fun-killing nature of microtransactions will lead to either a walk-away of platforms that allow them, or politicians will legislate to limit that commercial practice, crashing the ''IT'S TOTALLY NOT A GAMBLING ADDICTION MONEY SUCKING SCHEME'' studios.
Anyway, the catalog of great games is now so big an industry could just cycle-through remakes and re-releases ( if nothing else, a modest price tag is warranted for the file hosting and new hardware compatibility patching ) that each new generation of gamers wouldn't have the lifetime to explore.
The abusive, fun-killing nature of microtransactions will lead to either a walk-away of platforms that allow them, or politicians will legislate to limit that commercial practice, crashing the ''IT'S TOTALLY NOT A GAMBLING ADDICTION MONEY SUCKING SCHEME'' studios.
How would you deal with the non-gambling based microtransactions which are just as common? Nothing kills a game for me like having to pay the full release price again to remain competitive.
I go play something else untill they release their "deluxe expansions included multipack bundle value +" blabla the actual full game at a discount.
Or sailing the Seven Seas.
Dosen't work for MMORPGS though.
I doubt there is a legal way out of rip-off "expansions". They will just release those as "Whatever Adventure 2! With compatibility to your progress in W A 1!"
The console/PC split will make sure a total crash is pretty hard to accomplish. Microsoft forcing the playing field to mix into PC with Gamepass has saved probably both them and Sony from total collapse.
The biggest concern is Epic, which has enough money to actually tank the industry by trying to drag it to their tune. Especially as the Unreal Engine is quite a big cornerstone for devs, so if they pull the leash a bit it could kill both AAA and indie companies left and right. Double so if they try and force more permanent exclusivity deals and court cases.
While a full crash is almost impossible, a fracturing of the market enough to kill a huge portion of it is very much possible. All based on Timmy's whims.
Eh, Epic knows that their almost-monopoly on the licensed game engine market is relatively delicate. If their terms become oppressive, alternatives will quickly rise up. As is, they make insane money because no one is motivated to compete. UE is just too good and cheap.
The problem isn't just what Tim wants, but what the CCP wants. The CCP own 40% of Epic. While that isn't a majority of the company, Tim is just one man. That means the CCP only needs to bully, coerce, bribe or otherwise exert influence over just one man to completely control the company.
A major factor would be the us government cracking down on the ESG hedgefunds for insider trading and terrorist financing as that would accelerate get woke go broke, and the other would be increased regulations against microtransaction abuse.
Woke corporations shilling to ignorant whores and soyboys after having alienated their entire userbase. We're talking MadMax levels of chances of happening.
There won't be a games "crash" like you saw in the 1980s, because the video game market is too big and too stable now. You might see a crash in certain genres or platforms, but not across video games as a whole.
MMOs have been in basically a slow motion crash for a long time now, yet when new games like New World and Los Ark come out, millions of people rush to play them (then drop them within days or weeks).
Video games have definitely stagnated in a lot of ways, yet there are still releases like Elden Ring that everyone goes crazy for.
Yea there is no one "video game market".
Certain segments like say Playstation, Xbox, Steam, mobile games, indie games, etc might crash but the market as a whole is too big. At least if we're talking internal reasons.
What could crash all those segments if is the economy world wide crashes. Games are a luxury and those are the first to be cut from people's budgets. That looks like a real possibility thanks to Western governments and their green hysteria coupled with sanctions against their own energy supplies.
If there's any major "crash" I think it'll have to be centered around microtransactions, especially mobile - gacha - games whose entire business model is predicated on whales spending $1K monthly on new shiny skins, waifus, or other collectibles.
As for what the "crash" would be, I'm guessing some sort of legislation, or existing laws coupled with tighter ratings/enforcement that somehow tanks revenue for companies.
Other than that, I really don't see what there is to plummet. All new games suck, I only play old games or smaller publisher titles in the first place. Industry can switch around actors due to bankruptcy, consolidation due to Chinese/Saudi influence, etc., but the end result will always be rubbish.
For example, I don't think the community funding model will ever die, people are retards. See: Star Citizen, pre-ordering, applauding or tolerating censorship elsewhere while it doesn't affect themselves.
Unless I missed something I don't see how EA losing their license due to FIFA realizing how bad of a business deal it was, or Epic Games failing to increase their profit margins - both in terms of battle royale phase fading away and the Apple lawsuit - denotes a market crash.
Gacha and mobile gaming hasn't blinked an eye. They have infighting due to market saturation / time conflict, which is inherent in the F2P psychological model of grinding but that's nothing new. Attention may shift from game to game, but the overall base remains strong.
I imagine the same applies to console gaming. EA losing its license only means other publisher(s) pick up where they left, and sports fags continue to whale out.
I legit find AAA games super boring. I much prefer 2D aesthetics or smaller titles, but I'm also generally speaking a single player RPG fag. Much easier to avoid rot when not having to deal with multiplayer.
God I would love for a crash. The destruction of every major game company on earth is worth the loss of all IPs. Hell it would be a fresh start for new ideas for indies to rise from the ashes. No share holders, no stocks, to publishers.
Wishful apocalyptic thinking, I know.
One of two possibilities that I see.
Either:
Diversity and HR policies will continue sucking what joy remains from game development, all the competent creative people will flee; and all you'll have left is the drama queens and the people who are just there to collect a paycheck and will do whatever tasks are assigned to them no matter how nonsensical they are.
Or:
Improvements to computer hardware will slow to a point where newer models of computer will no longer be able to make up for inefficient code, and there won't be enough programmers with low-level programming knowledge to be able to optimize the code to improve performance. Possibility #1 may exacerbate this effect, as programmers with that low-level knowledge may not want to put up with the diversity and HR nonsense.
Hard disagree with this analysis.
Your first hypothetical isn’t a hypothetical; you are describing the actual current state of most of AAA development.
Your second hypothetical is a complete non-issue in modern game development. The vast majority of today’s games are created using licensed game engines and prebaked assets. You don’t need chip-level knowledge to code a video game in 2022.
Yes, and eventually it passes the event horizon where it becomes difficult or impossible to make anything worth playing. Which happens all the time in other industries; why would gaming be immune?
Someone still has to make the game engines. How many people know how to do that? Is that number going up or down over time?
Somebody tell that to minecraft users.
To be fair that's most of what you need, the only real creative tasks needing to be done would be art and name related since the rest of game design can be done by playing into a genre and maybe adding a twist from another genre.
It is true that is most of what you need. However in my experience (which isn't games but software development for some pretty expensive and complex equipment) successful projects often have a handful of talented people who give a damn well beyond a simple desire to earn a paycheck..
Big companies do a pretty good job crushing those guys as it is, yet somehow they keep springing up like weeds. If they ever actually succeed in killing the goose that lays the golden eggs...then you just have software like they have in India. How many cool games do you see come out of India?
Several big studios will crash and burn, but there will be plenty of small developpers making good, fun, nice-looking games that will find niches.
Big studios rely too much on micro-transactions to fund themselves as the bloated spending monster they turned into.
The abusive, fun-killing nature of microtransactions will lead to either a walk-away of platforms that allow them, or politicians will legislate to limit that commercial practice, crashing the ''IT'S TOTALLY NOT A GAMBLING ADDICTION MONEY SUCKING SCHEME'' studios.
Anyway, the catalog of great games is now so big an industry could just cycle-through remakes and re-releases ( if nothing else, a modest price tag is warranted for the file hosting and new hardware compatibility patching ) that each new generation of gamers wouldn't have the lifetime to explore.
How would you deal with the non-gambling based microtransactions which are just as common? Nothing kills a game for me like having to pay the full release price again to remain competitive.
I go play something else untill they release their "deluxe expansions included multipack bundle value +" blabla the actual full game at a discount.
Or sailing the Seven Seas.
Dosen't work for MMORPGS though.
I doubt there is a legal way out of rip-off "expansions". They will just release those as "Whatever Adventure 2! With compatibility to your progress in W A 1!"
The console/PC split will make sure a total crash is pretty hard to accomplish. Microsoft forcing the playing field to mix into PC with Gamepass has saved probably both them and Sony from total collapse.
The biggest concern is Epic, which has enough money to actually tank the industry by trying to drag it to their tune. Especially as the Unreal Engine is quite a big cornerstone for devs, so if they pull the leash a bit it could kill both AAA and indie companies left and right. Double so if they try and force more permanent exclusivity deals and court cases.
While a full crash is almost impossible, a fracturing of the market enough to kill a huge portion of it is very much possible. All based on Timmy's whims.
Eh, Epic knows that their almost-monopoly on the licensed game engine market is relatively delicate. If their terms become oppressive, alternatives will quickly rise up. As is, they make insane money because no one is motivated to compete. UE is just too good and cheap.
The problem isn't just what Tim wants, but what the CCP wants. The CCP own 40% of Epic. While that isn't a majority of the company, Tim is just one man. That means the CCP only needs to bully, coerce, bribe or otherwise exert influence over just one man to completely control the company.
A major factor would be the us government cracking down on the ESG hedgefunds for insider trading and terrorist financing as that would accelerate get woke go broke, and the other would be increased regulations against microtransaction abuse.
Woke corporations shilling to ignorant whores and soyboys after having alienated their entire userbase. We're talking MadMax levels of chances of happening.
The constant push of buggy, preachy woke games with micro transactions is doing a good job of hurting the AAA industry
Better physics and enemy ai I hope