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posted ago by MagnumRabbits ago by MagnumRabbits +34 / -0

Good morning! It's a beautiful day today, so I wanted to keep the good vibes going for all of you by bringing up a topic that will end up being a lovely and lively conversation about our favorite most forgotten capital of a country that has occupied a gray area for the better part of 80 years. Taiwan!

This is sure to start off with good news.

For the past few years China has been doing the "un-China" thing by being overtly aggressive towards Taiwan. The progression has been a bit natural, first claim the waters around Taiwan (and neighbors), then claim the air, and next is to claim the ground. Technically this has already happened, with the PRC claiming Taiwan since it consolidated control of the mainland bank in the 40s. However to add to the fun, Taiwan also claims mainland China, so two governments actively claim the land the other is sitting on. This is a fun recipe for conflict.

The only thing that was stopping either side from enacting out it's respective holy missions of conquest on each other was that neither side could do anything about the other. China, with the power of boots on the ground, could never quite master the water well enough for an amphibious assault. And Taiwan doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of conquering the mainland without massive direct support unseen in the world since WW2.

Let's bring ourselves to today. China's navy has been increasingly capable of getting control of the sea on it's shores, and the seas of is neighbors. Without Japan as a natural check to China, smaller countries (with smaller navies) must abide by China's claims (even though they hate it) because they cannot do anything about it. China has essentially bullied Taiwan with the line "if you don't like it, then do something about it" multiple times. And Taiwan basically has to accept it because it "can't do anything about it" (without sparking a much larger conflict that is "backer" wants no part of, more on that coming up!).

Reason being, Taiwan is rightfully unsure just how committed the US is to responding to Taiwan should China attack, and there's no chance for Taiwan should the Americans not arrive, or fail to arrive in force. Under Trump there was a more robust arms trade and training in place, but under Biden it's been one disaster after another.

Biden's first act in regards to Taiwan was to sell them a Coast Guard Navy Cutter more in line with search and rescue rather than the respond to the request of Fast Attack Craft. Biden later authorized a disastrous War Games exercise in the area where the Attack Team destroyed the Defend team each time, leading to senior military commanders privately expressing that under current military conditions the US would not be able to save Taiwan from invasion.

And this isn't lost to the Chinese. For the past few decades they've built an impressive spy network that's firmly rooted in the US government. And for years the Chinese have taken the information they've gained and used it to navigate and create new ways around American weapons systems. Namely the hypersonic missile. Now the Chinese claim they can make certain backbone American aircraft completely obsolete with their new stock of missiles, and they just might be able to, but what we do know for sure is that their anti-ship missiles can make a 1000-mile no ship zone off the Chinese shore, which jeopardizes not only American movements in the area, but also Korean and Japanese.

However, the biggest hammer to drop is Ukraine. China is watching and studying the West's response to Ukraine, and in a word, they find it emboldening. The CCP has started advising party leaders to divest themselves from owning American assets in an effort to insulate themselves from American sanctions. They've created a strategic partnership with Russia (and indirectly India, of all places), and they reactivated N.Korea to be the American's gadfly once again. China has seen that the western response to Russia has been TikTok dance videos and social media outrage. More substantially however, how America emptied out it's arms reserves to fight Russia, leaving next to nothing for Taiwan.

Because China is banking on two things. 1 is that Americans rely too much on things made in China to substantially sanction away all things Chinese and 2 the American political class relies on China way too much for it to substantially support Taiwan in any capacity.

Should the Americans sanction China completely, China expects American domestic outrage would peak as shortages hit everything from smart phones to cars to everyday lifestyle devices. This hits the American political class directly, as more wealthy Americans get outraged that they can't download the latest peloton app or get the coffee they like from Starbucks. Political leaders would buckle under the pressure, unlike with Russia, were the biggest effect there was only food prices/cost of farming skyrocketing. This is not even considering the amount of American politicians (Democrats) that have compromising ties to China through family member's business dealings and the politicians (Democrats) that can't seem to keep their dick out of Chinese Spy's pussies.

(I say the food bit only because the current ruling class firmly believes that food is created at the grocery store and not at a farm, unless it's a 1 acre 100% naturally organic tomato and narcotic farm stand on Long Island.)

Now I'm not in the game of predictions, but if I was a betting man, I'd say we'll see some major military action out of China within the next 3 years. The big "if" will be the Americans response, and I think in China's case, sooner is better than later. We'll see if they agree.

Comments (23)
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deleted 18 points ago +18 / -0
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throwaway531 16 points ago +16 / -0

TSMC is a reason Taiwan hasn't been invaded. Not just as a company based in Taiwan, it's also a strategic asset. Taiwan would sabotage the company to deny it to the Chinese and the resulting worldwide chip shortage would turn public ire against China.

Taiwan is rightfully unsure just how committed the US is to responding to Taiwan should China attack

Which is why they're looking to Japan, SK and the Philipines rather than the US.

Polymatter did a video and I'm once again linking this, because it's always relevant.

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realerfunction 2 points ago +2 / -0

that image is nice, and probably true, but it neglects taiwan's biggest threat:

the fifth column.

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WhitePhoenix 2 points ago +2 / -0

Like I've said, part of the reason why the West has been doing this half-assed proxy war in Ukraine is because Ukraine isn't an ally nor is it a nation worth saving for any kind of resources.

Taiwan on the other hand has a functional government - one that is somewhat corrupt (but what government isn't?) but very stable with a populace that is staunchly anti-Communist and like you pointed out, is a key distributor of chips.

We are explicitly allies with Taiwan as well. If China decides to be idiots I don't think the US will hesitate to defend them. They're a much different situation than Ukraine.

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Assassin47 10 points ago +10 / -0

And Taiwan doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of conquering the mainland without massive direct support unseen in the world since WW2.

Also nukes. That precludes an invasion of the mainland by anyone.

I'd say we'll see some major military action out of China within the next 3 years

Do you think they'll take the chance of waiting for the next US presidential election?

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Erithal 10 points ago +10 / -0

Do you think they'll take the chance of waiting for the next US presidential election?

This is the end of a big window for them, so no-- I think they want to invade with Biden pooping in the big seat. I think they want the US to overcommit in Ukraine before going in. That's a short term wait, while they watch for any mistakes by Biden.

I get the feeling if the US commits in Ukraine, Taiwan gets invaded.

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FrozeInFear 5 points ago +5 / -0

Piggybacking off the original question, do you think anything changes if Biden goes down before 2024 and Harris has to take over? Or is it mainly an issue of the commitment to Ukraine/other conflicts?

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Crazy_ 4 points ago +4 / -0

China is not going to fear a black female President. Their plans probably wouldn't change very much

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Erithal 2 points ago +2 / -0

My thinking is more of the both/and. Both Biden being senile and us engaging in Ukraine thins out the US military enough to make China's actions possible. Harris is more of an unknown.

I think Harris doesn't project weakness the way Biden does; she'd be more prone to overreact militarily-- and that would likely lead to engagement in both Ukraine AND Taiwan, just to avoid appearing weak. Ironically, the threat of an active president, even an overactive one, would probably mean China isn't as likely to attack Taiwan. (I think if we engage in Ukraine and start losing, though, Taiwan's in BIG trouble, regardless of the president.)

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alucard13mmfmj 4 points ago +4 / -0

I agree. Women in leadership positions tend to over compensatw to not look weak, especially look weak to the men.

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WhitePhoenix 2 points ago +2 / -0

But they also tend to give in to their feelings which means abrupt irrational responses to situations. Harris may see some Chinese planes being flown near Taiwan as an act of war and send our forces after China instead of trying to negotiate with them.

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MagnumRabbits [S] 5 points ago +5 / -0

Also nukes. That precludes an invasion of the mainland by anyone.

There's always nukes in the banana stand Michael

Do you think they'll take the chance of waiting for the next US presidential election?

That's the million dollar question isn't it?

Biden is a known quantity. He's a weak and ineffectual leader, however the people behind him represent the collective might of American weapons manufacturing and intelligence gathering. That shouldn't be underestimated even with Biden "leading".

A chaotic election year could also be beneficial to use, as well as the possibility of a new president taking power and a slow adoption could provide a new window off opportunity.

Summed up, there's plenty of windows, and China has some troubles of it's own. China risks alienating the West, much like Russia. And unlike Russia, China's economy relies heavily on the West buying Chinese goods. Should the West economically remove China from the map, China's economy can go into free fall as goods produced don't find buyers.

China's naval capabilities aren't quite there yet also. Being a land power is one thing. Being a naval power is another. China's navy is getting there, and it will be ready, but it's not that time yet.

I'd give it a five year window, with or without Biden

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NihilistCaregiver 6 points ago +6 / -0

Bubble tea strategic stockpiles would also be in danger

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trump4045 5 points ago +5 / -0

This is not even considering the amount of American politicians (Democrats) that have compromising ties to China through family member's business dealings and the politicians (Democrats) that can't seem to keep their dick out of Chinese Spy's pussies.

Republicans have the same ties to China and many other subversive actors.

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SparkMandrill83 1 point ago +1 / -0

Like who?

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JustHereForTheSalmon 2 points ago +2 / -0

Youtube has started recommending a video called "Why Taiwan is not Ukraine", getting ready to install the double-think about how Russia is evil for invading Ukraine but China is fine for invading Taiwan.

Presumably. I'm not going to watch it.

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Grumman 3 points ago +3 / -0

The video can be summed up thusly: a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be far more difficult than the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and China's current sabre-rattling is just a continuation of the previous seven decades of sabre-rattling for domestic consumption. However, the video's creator is the kind of leftist freak who will omit Trump from a timeline of American Presidents, and so his dismissal of the idea that the Democrats have made the invasion more likely by installing a demented Manchurian candidate could be rooted in his political biases and not rational analysis.

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subbookkeeper 2 points ago +2 / -0

One thing that people always overlook about chinese manufacturing is that there are many other low cost countries that would gladly take over the role. Indonesia is a big one, Nigeria, hell all of Africa and the middle east basically.

Japan is also strategically re arming.

And one thing that works against China is that it physically has to transport a massive invasion force across the straight under fire.

China could, but I don't think they're that stupid when the cost of a failed invasion is so high and very likely. It doesn't matter that they bombard Taiwan, unless they can get a million soldiers across, it's not a victory.

Politically consuming Taiwan is a far better and more likely strategy IMO. Isolate and slowly entangle untill it's the only options.

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Chairman_Pooh 1 point ago +1 / -0

One thing that people always overlook about chinese manufacturing is that there are many other low cost countries that would gladly take over the role. Indonesia is a big one, Nigeria, hell all of Africa and the middle east basically.

This is not really the case. These countries have trouble even with very low-end manufacturing.

Indonesia (and India, Bangladesh etc) are in the least bad position to compete, but even they just don't have anywhere near the infrastructure required. You can't run a factory if the lights don't stay on, or (except at the very lowest end) if the workers aren't literate, or if you can't get supplies or ship goods out. It took China decades to get out of that position. And that's at least a high-IQ population, this will be worse anywhere else. The Middle East and especially Africa have stability issues on top of that. You can't even begin to build infrastructure if there's a different warlord every 50 miles and they're all constantly fighting each other, destroying everything.

You can't really get foreign investment that way either, in order to start out. Even in the 1980s, if you had permission to build a factory in China, the site would be clear, and there'd be utilities, and the utilities would work. Your average African government will point you at a tribal village, and then when you say "there's a village there", they'll say "they're squatters, you can remove them", and then when you go "WTF" they say "you figure it out". If you actually do remove them it'll turn out they were the ethnic enemies of whatever tribe is in power and your company will be in the news the next week, "Tesla helps warlord do ethnic cleansing in return for a building permit!" And after all that, you still can't build a factory because there's no roads or power.

Add to all of that the fact that there's a whole ecosystem in China now. If you need parts or anything, chances are the factory next door is making them. At worst it'll be the factory in the next town over. Even Western countries have trouble with this, if you need a part in the West, you'll probably need to wait a month for the container ship from China to arrive.

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SolidSnakeOil 2 points ago +4 / -2

tl;dr

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Assassin47 5 points ago +5 / -0

China's going to attack Taiwan within 3 years.

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Eldourado 1 point ago +4 / -3

China will wait, it is not the time yet. I think China will wait until the US elects two non-White different presidents in a row, a sign that the ethnic transition is complete in the US. And a non-white US will be less imperialistic and more focused on its internal struggles.

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trump4045 3 points ago +3 / -0

You have no idea what you are talking about, not to mention politicians do not get "elected" in the US, rather they are appointed.

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WW1Wilson 2 points ago +2 / -0

Also regardless of demographic trends, liberal nationalism is being ramped up again https://www.compactmag.com/article/the-return-of-liberal-nationalism