TSMC is a reason Taiwan hasn't been invaded. Not just as a company based in Taiwan, it's also a strategic asset. Taiwan would sabotage the company to deny it to the Chinese and the resulting worldwide chip shortage would turn public ire against China.
Taiwan is rightfully unsure just how committed the US is to responding to Taiwan should China attack
Which is why they're looking to Japan, SK and the Philipines rather than the US.
Polymatter did a video and I'm once again linking this, because it's always relevant.
Like I've said, part of the reason why the West has been doing this half-assed proxy war in Ukraine is because Ukraine isn't an ally nor is it a nation worth saving for any kind of resources.
Taiwan on the other hand has a functional government - one that is somewhat corrupt (but what government isn't?) but very stable with a populace that is staunchly anti-Communist and like you pointed out, is a key distributor of chips.
We are explicitly allies with Taiwan as well. If China decides to be idiots I don't think the US will hesitate to defend them. They're a much different situation than Ukraine.
Do you think they'll take the chance of waiting for the next US presidential election?
This is the end of a big window for them, so no-- I think they want to invade with Biden pooping in the big seat. I think they want the US to overcommit in Ukraine before going in. That's a short term wait, while they watch for any mistakes by Biden.
I get the feeling if the US commits in Ukraine, Taiwan gets invaded.
Piggybacking off the original question, do you think anything changes if Biden goes down before 2024 and Harris has to take over? Or is it mainly an issue of the commitment to Ukraine/other conflicts?
My thinking is more of the both/and. Both Biden being senile and us engaging in Ukraine thins out the US military enough to make China's actions possible. Harris is more of an unknown.
I think Harris doesn't project weakness the way Biden does; she'd be more prone to overreact militarily-- and that would likely lead to engagement in both Ukraine AND Taiwan, just to avoid appearing weak. Ironically, the threat of an active president, even an overactive one, would probably mean China isn't as likely to attack Taiwan. (I think if we engage in Ukraine and start losing, though, Taiwan's in BIG trouble, regardless of the president.)
But they also tend to give in to their feelings which means abrupt irrational responses to situations. Harris may see some Chinese planes being flown near Taiwan as an act of war and send our forces after China instead of trying to negotiate with them.
China will wait, it is not the time yet. I think China will wait until the US elects two non-White different presidents in a row, a sign that the ethnic transition is complete in the US. And a non-white US will be less imperialistic and more focused on its internal struggles.
Youtube has started recommending a video called "Why Taiwan is not Ukraine", getting ready to install the double-think about how Russia is evil for invading Ukraine but China is fine for invading Taiwan.
The video can be summed up thusly: a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be far more difficult than the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and China's current sabre-rattling is just a continuation of the previous seven decades of sabre-rattling for domestic consumption. However, the video's creator is the kind of leftist freak who will omit Trump from a timeline of American Presidents, and so his dismissal of the idea that the Democrats have made the invasion more likely by installing a demented Manchurian candidate could be rooted in his political biases and not rational analysis.
One thing that people always overlook about chinese manufacturing is that there are many other low cost countries that would gladly take over the role. Indonesia is a big one, Nigeria, hell all of Africa and the middle east basically.
Japan is also strategically re arming.
And one thing that works against China is that it physically has to transport a massive invasion force across the straight under fire.
China could, but I don't think they're that stupid when the cost of a failed invasion is so high and very likely. It doesn't matter that they bombard Taiwan, unless they can get a million soldiers across, it's not a victory.
Politically consuming Taiwan is a far better and more likely strategy IMO. Isolate and slowly entangle untill it's the only options.
One thing that people always overlook about chinese manufacturing is that there are many other low cost countries that would gladly take over the role. Indonesia is a big one, Nigeria, hell all of Africa and the middle east basically.
This is not really the case. These countries have trouble even with very low-end manufacturing.
Indonesia (and India, Bangladesh etc) are in the least bad position to compete, but even they just don't have anywhere near the infrastructure required. You can't run a factory if the lights don't stay on, or (except at the very lowest end) if the workers aren't literate, or if you can't get supplies or ship goods out. It took China decades to get out of that position. And that's at least a high-IQ population, this will be worse anywhere else. The Middle East and especially Africa have stability issues on top of that. You can't even begin to build infrastructure if there's a different warlord every 50 miles and they're all constantly fighting each other, destroying everything.
You can't really get foreign investment that way either, in order to start out. Even in the 1980s, if you had permission to build a factory in China, the site would be clear, and there'd be utilities, and the utilities would work. Your average African government will point you at a tribal village, and then when you say "there's a village there", they'll say "they're squatters, you can remove them", and then when you go "WTF" they say "you figure it out". If you actually do remove them it'll turn out they were the ethnic enemies of whatever tribe is in power and your company will be in the news the next week, "Tesla helps warlord do ethnic cleansing in return for a building permit!" And after all that, you still can't build a factory because there's no roads or power.
Add to all of that the fact that there's a whole ecosystem in China now. If you need parts or anything, chances are the factory next door is making them. At worst it'll be the factory in the next town over. Even Western countries have trouble with this, if you need a part in the West, you'll probably need to wait a month for the container ship from China to arrive.
TSMC is a reason Taiwan hasn't been invaded. Not just as a company based in Taiwan, it's also a strategic asset. Taiwan would sabotage the company to deny it to the Chinese and the resulting worldwide chip shortage would turn public ire against China.
Which is why they're looking to Japan, SK and the Philipines rather than the US.
Polymatter did a video and I'm once again linking this, because it's always relevant.
that image is nice, and probably true, but it neglects taiwan's biggest threat:
the fifth column.
Like I've said, part of the reason why the West has been doing this half-assed proxy war in Ukraine is because Ukraine isn't an ally nor is it a nation worth saving for any kind of resources.
Taiwan on the other hand has a functional government - one that is somewhat corrupt (but what government isn't?) but very stable with a populace that is staunchly anti-Communist and like you pointed out, is a key distributor of chips.
We are explicitly allies with Taiwan as well. If China decides to be idiots I don't think the US will hesitate to defend them. They're a much different situation than Ukraine.
Also nukes. That precludes an invasion of the mainland by anyone.
Do you think they'll take the chance of waiting for the next US presidential election?
This is the end of a big window for them, so no-- I think they want to invade with Biden pooping in the big seat. I think they want the US to overcommit in Ukraine before going in. That's a short term wait, while they watch for any mistakes by Biden.
I get the feeling if the US commits in Ukraine, Taiwan gets invaded.
Piggybacking off the original question, do you think anything changes if Biden goes down before 2024 and Harris has to take over? Or is it mainly an issue of the commitment to Ukraine/other conflicts?
My thinking is more of the both/and. Both Biden being senile and us engaging in Ukraine thins out the US military enough to make China's actions possible. Harris is more of an unknown.
I think Harris doesn't project weakness the way Biden does; she'd be more prone to overreact militarily-- and that would likely lead to engagement in both Ukraine AND Taiwan, just to avoid appearing weak. Ironically, the threat of an active president, even an overactive one, would probably mean China isn't as likely to attack Taiwan. (I think if we engage in Ukraine and start losing, though, Taiwan's in BIG trouble, regardless of the president.)
I agree. Women in leadership positions tend to over compensatw to not look weak, especially look weak to the men.
But they also tend to give in to their feelings which means abrupt irrational responses to situations. Harris may see some Chinese planes being flown near Taiwan as an act of war and send our forces after China instead of trying to negotiate with them.
China's going to attack Taiwan within 3 years.
China will wait, it is not the time yet. I think China will wait until the US elects two non-White different presidents in a row, a sign that the ethnic transition is complete in the US. And a non-white US will be less imperialistic and more focused on its internal struggles.
Youtube has started recommending a video called "Why Taiwan is not Ukraine", getting ready to install the double-think about how Russia is evil for invading Ukraine but China is fine for invading Taiwan.
Presumably. I'm not going to watch it.
The video can be summed up thusly: a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be far more difficult than the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and China's current sabre-rattling is just a continuation of the previous seven decades of sabre-rattling for domestic consumption. However, the video's creator is the kind of leftist freak who will omit Trump from a timeline of American Presidents, and so his dismissal of the idea that the Democrats have made the invasion more likely by installing a demented Manchurian candidate could be rooted in his political biases and not rational analysis.
One thing that people always overlook about chinese manufacturing is that there are many other low cost countries that would gladly take over the role. Indonesia is a big one, Nigeria, hell all of Africa and the middle east basically.
Japan is also strategically re arming.
And one thing that works against China is that it physically has to transport a massive invasion force across the straight under fire.
China could, but I don't think they're that stupid when the cost of a failed invasion is so high and very likely. It doesn't matter that they bombard Taiwan, unless they can get a million soldiers across, it's not a victory.
Politically consuming Taiwan is a far better and more likely strategy IMO. Isolate and slowly entangle untill it's the only options.
This is not really the case. These countries have trouble even with very low-end manufacturing.
Indonesia (and India, Bangladesh etc) are in the least bad position to compete, but even they just don't have anywhere near the infrastructure required. You can't run a factory if the lights don't stay on, or (except at the very lowest end) if the workers aren't literate, or if you can't get supplies or ship goods out. It took China decades to get out of that position. And that's at least a high-IQ population, this will be worse anywhere else. The Middle East and especially Africa have stability issues on top of that. You can't even begin to build infrastructure if there's a different warlord every 50 miles and they're all constantly fighting each other, destroying everything.
You can't really get foreign investment that way either, in order to start out. Even in the 1980s, if you had permission to build a factory in China, the site would be clear, and there'd be utilities, and the utilities would work. Your average African government will point you at a tribal village, and then when you say "there's a village there", they'll say "they're squatters, you can remove them", and then when you go "WTF" they say "you figure it out". If you actually do remove them it'll turn out they were the ethnic enemies of whatever tribe is in power and your company will be in the news the next week, "Tesla helps warlord do ethnic cleansing in return for a building permit!" And after all that, you still can't build a factory because there's no roads or power.
Add to all of that the fact that there's a whole ecosystem in China now. If you need parts or anything, chances are the factory next door is making them. At worst it'll be the factory in the next town over. Even Western countries have trouble with this, if you need a part in the West, you'll probably need to wait a month for the container ship from China to arrive.
Like who?