Do you think they'll take the chance of waiting for the next US presidential election?
This is the end of a big window for them, so no-- I think they want to invade with Biden pooping in the big seat. I think they want the US to overcommit in Ukraine before going in. That's a short term wait, while they watch for any mistakes by Biden.
I get the feeling if the US commits in Ukraine, Taiwan gets invaded.
Piggybacking off the original question, do you think anything changes if Biden goes down before 2024 and Harris has to take over? Or is it mainly an issue of the commitment to Ukraine/other conflicts?
My thinking is more of the both/and. Both Biden being senile and us engaging in Ukraine thins out the US military enough to make China's actions possible. Harris is more of an unknown.
I think Harris doesn't project weakness the way Biden does; she'd be more prone to overreact militarily-- and that would likely lead to engagement in both Ukraine AND Taiwan, just to avoid appearing weak. Ironically, the threat of an active president, even an overactive one, would probably mean China isn't as likely to attack Taiwan. (I think if we engage in Ukraine and start losing, though, Taiwan's in BIG trouble, regardless of the president.)
But they also tend to give in to their feelings which means abrupt irrational responses to situations. Harris may see some Chinese planes being flown near Taiwan as an act of war and send our forces after China instead of trying to negotiate with them.
This is the end of a big window for them, so no-- I think they want to invade with Biden pooping in the big seat. I think they want the US to overcommit in Ukraine before going in. That's a short term wait, while they watch for any mistakes by Biden.
I get the feeling if the US commits in Ukraine, Taiwan gets invaded.
Piggybacking off the original question, do you think anything changes if Biden goes down before 2024 and Harris has to take over? Or is it mainly an issue of the commitment to Ukraine/other conflicts?
China is not going to fear a black female President. Their plans probably wouldn't change very much
My thinking is more of the both/and. Both Biden being senile and us engaging in Ukraine thins out the US military enough to make China's actions possible. Harris is more of an unknown.
I think Harris doesn't project weakness the way Biden does; she'd be more prone to overreact militarily-- and that would likely lead to engagement in both Ukraine AND Taiwan, just to avoid appearing weak. Ironically, the threat of an active president, even an overactive one, would probably mean China isn't as likely to attack Taiwan. (I think if we engage in Ukraine and start losing, though, Taiwan's in BIG trouble, regardless of the president.)
I agree. Women in leadership positions tend to over compensatw to not look weak, especially look weak to the men.
But they also tend to give in to their feelings which means abrupt irrational responses to situations. Harris may see some Chinese planes being flown near Taiwan as an act of war and send our forces after China instead of trying to negotiate with them.