Oh it certainly is deliberate. The media and the left, (but I repeat myself) desperately want Trump as the nominee. The media because he SELLS their content and the left because they know how incredibly weak Biden is and believe Trump is the nominee he has the best chance against.
Just look at mainstream media messaging around Trump this year. He isn't orange Hitler anymore; they've toned the rhetoric waaay down. Remember when freaking CNN even gave him a Town Hall platform back in May?
And their plan has worked to perfection. Just go back and compare when Trump's poll numbers took off to when the indictments started to drop. Republicans have rallied around Trump because he is clearly being unfairly persecuted by the left and supporting someone in that situation is practically instinctual.
I personally believe that pretty much any of the other Republican candidates would have a better shot against Biden in the general than Trump. I know that opinion is going to be unpopular here, but I just can't see how it's not the truth. I'm not saying Trump can't win the general -- he can -- it's just that if he does it will probably be a narrow thing and everything will have to go right for him. Biden will probably not even debate Trump "You didn't even attend the Republican debates", he'll say. Biden will just hang out in his basement like he did in 2020 and the MSM will run his campaign for him. The entire election cycle will be about Donald Trump and Jan 6th, rather than Joe Biden's disastrous presidency.
Biden is so weak that any candidate without Trump's baggage is going to have a very good chance at the general. The left know this, and thus we have all the indictments.
Incidentally the indictments do double duty for the leftists. First, they greatly increase the chance of Trump's nomination, which they want. Second, they completely hamstring Trump's campaign. He's going to have to spend a huge chunk of his campaign financing on legal defense. He's going to have to spend a lot of time in court. It all means a much weaker republican campaign and a much greater chance of a Biden second term. As much as I loathe leftist ideology the elite pushing their agenda are not fools. The Trump indictments are a brilliantly nefarious bit of election engineering.
I remember how excited the country was for Obama in '08. I remember the huge rallies, the general excitement and optimism around him. It wasn't like Kerry or Gore.
That was nothing compared to the spontaneous parades, rallies, and parties for Trump in '20. The dude got 13 million more votes than he did in '16. And we're supposed to believe that people hated him so much that 17 million more than in '16 voted against him/for Biden, a guy who spent half of his 5 total campaign events berating his constituents or challenging them to push-up contests.
Sorry, I don't believe it. I think anyone who thinks one of the other clowns on the Republican debate stage last night has a chance to capture a significant amount of the MAGA base is delusional.
I predict 80+ million votes for Trump this time around, and 90+ million for whatever Democrat ends up running. They're going to have to blow the lid off of fake ballot printing and lay the scam bare for everyone to see.
That was nothing compared to the spontaneous parades, rallies, and parties for Trump in '20.
This is what I keep telling people. I had to drive from the peoples republic of NJ to the middle of bumfuck Kansas for a family reason back in 2019. The sheer amount of Trump flags, signs, bumper stickers, hats, etc. that I saw along the way was unbelievable. I'm talking 2 or 3 of those every single mile for whole sections of highway. Even here in NJ I still see more Trump merch than Biden merch. Hell, I've only seen about 4 cars with a Biden sticker on it, whereas there are at least 5 houses near me than have Trump signs on their lawn.
I have never in my lifetime seen a political figure with as much support as Trump. Hell, people in fucking Japan had marches for him. A country on the literal other side of the planet had people marching for this guy.
Biden has nowhere near the level of support that Trump has. Period. You have to have been living under a rock only watching CNN to think otherwise. I have met exactly 1 person who actually likes Biden (and he has autism). The only Biden voters who actually exist are people who just hate Trump enough that anyone blue will do.
I refuse to believe that a senile dementia patient who gropes his relatives in the shower and uses his crackhead son to launder money has even 1/10000th the support that Trump has.
Same. I had to drive from Florida to Vermont before the election, and guess what I saw in excess? A fuckton of ground-swell Trump support.
Zero Biden.
And for much people mumble about 'voting against Trump', I've met some people with a deep, deep hatred of Biden. From some people I wouldn't expect it from. Hell, I still remember when my boss went off on Biden, which made me take a metaphorical step back, cause he's normally a pretty chill dude and will make excuses not to bitch about people. Shocked the hell out of me, let me tell you.
The only Biden voters who actually exist are people who just hate Trump enough that anyone blue will do.
100%. And it's pretty clear that there is a gigantic groundswell of support for Trump now that he's once again the complete underdog. America loves an underdog, especially one who promises to fight the powers that are making their lives hell.
Remember when freaking CNN even gave him a Town Hall platform back in May?
They got skewered for that because it was purely a money move to save CNN's income.
I personally believe that pretty much any of the other Republican candidates would have a better shot against Biden in the general than Trump. I know that opinion is going to be unpopular here, but I just can't see how it's not the truth.
I don't see how you can believe that with access to any data. Trump is the single most popular president among Republicans since Eisenhower. Trump is more popular than Reagan. You can count his disapproval among Democrats, but there's no other candidate with that level of favorability among Republicans, and it's not close. You want someone who isn't Trump to run as the nominee? Good: cut 20-30 million votes from the total, and that's what you're nominee will get at best.
Biden is so weak that any candidate without Trump's baggage is going to have a very good chance at the general. The left know this, and thus we have all the indictments.
The indictments aren't there to try and get him elected, they are there to physically hobble him from doing rallies, because they know that rallies both create massive turnout and support for Trump, and it also legitimizes and normalizes him to the general public.
Shutting up about him is a desperate strategy from the media that would otherwise be broadcasting him 24/7 just for the income that he generates... because he's wildly popular.
I don't see how you can believe that with access to any data. Trump is the single most popular president among Republicans since Eisenhower.
I agree that Trump is remarkable at bringing the republican base to the polls. He's both entertaining and willing to fight leftists in a way that prior to his arrival no republican would do. Many republicans are so grateful that somebody would finally do that they're loyal to the guy under any circumstance.
That said, when you think about electability you have GOT to consider the other side of the coin. As popular as Trump is among the republican base he is equally hated among the democratic base. More dems came out specifically to vote against Trump in 2020 than any other candidate ever. Yes, the bullshit rigging of election rules "because covid" certainly helped them harvest those votes but the fact remains the Trump energizes democratic voters every bit as much as he energizes republican voters.
Given that, I view the 'gets out the base' argument as a wash at best. The election will once again turn on independents' votes. Trump is right now polling worse amongst that group than he was in 2020.
The indictments aren't there to try and get him elected, they are there to physically hobble him from doing rallies
Agree on both points. They aren't there to get him elected. They're there to make him the nominee. And they're working just as the left planned. Keeping him from doing rallies, campaigning, and sucking dry his election fund via legal bills is icing on the cake.
Look, I don't hate the guy. He was the right man in 2016 and thank god he beat Clinton. Just think how screwed we'd be if she'd gotten to nominate 3 supreme court justices. I'll always be eternally grateful to Trump for that, and for showing the right that being combative with the left is the way forward.
And I'm not even saying that Trump can't win. He can win if everything goes exactly right for him. But I just don't like his chances. A candidate who can make the election a referendum on Joe Biden's disastrous performance (as it should be) has got a much better shot.
More dems came out specifically to vote against Trump in 2020 than any other candidate ever.
I don't agree in anything but potentially raw numbers. Yes, voting against George Bush (Baby killing war criminal by the Left's standard) was just as severe as Trump. Almost all other Republican candidates get similar invectives: voting against Reagan (Hitlerian ignoramus who would get us into WW3) had the similar treatment, and so was Goldwater (Hitlerian racist who wanted to re-impose slavery and invade Vietnam), and so was George Bush Sr (War monger who raised taxes and wanted to destroy American labor), and so was Nixon (racist war-mongerer who liked murdering children and protestors for fun).
This is one of the reasons DeSantis Simps are fucking blind when it comes to the media invective against Trump. Every right-winger gets horrendous treatment, Trump just happens to be getting the worst of it since Goldwater (there's a reason for that). The idea that the media won't turn around and claim "DeSantis is EVEN WORSE than Trump" is asinine. Remember that Ted Cruz was accused of attempting to assassinate AOC, and it was taken seriously. The media are already so damned wild that if you put Jeb Bush up against Biden, the media would claim that Jeb Bush is evidence of dynastic white supremacy.
That polarization you see of Democrats against Trump is not about Trump, it's about the polarization. The Democrats aren't saying "I hate Trump, but I like some of his policies", they are saying "Everyone who supports Trump should be killed because every policy that he has ever said is inherently evil, no matter who says them and when." For example, in 2021, 30% of Democrats thought that involuntary relocation of "unvaccinated" people into concentration camps was a good idea. Trump was already out of power. They weren't doing that because they loved the "Trump Vaccine", they were doing that because there are no good Republicans. Anyone who is adjacent to a right-wing position is an enemy and deserves death. Race riots are moral. Covid Camps are moral. School shootings against catholic schools are moral. Raped kids are moral.
And that hysterical insanity has nothing to do with Trump because we can see it across the entirety of the Anglosphere and the west generally. Everyone who supports Bolsonaro is a rebel and should be shot or arrested. Everyone who supports LePen is a Nazi. Everyone who supports Zammour is pro-genocide. Everyone who supports the AfD deserves to be imprisoned or shot. Everyone who protested the Australian lockdowns is a terrorist. Everyone who objects to the suspension of the election in New Zealand is a threat to 'our democracy'. There was a Red Terror in Canada where 64 churches were attacked and a dozen or so were entirely burned. Civil Rights groups supported the firebombing campaign, and anyone who objected was supporting a genocide. When people self-immolated in protest of the lockdowns in Australia, the response from the political left was: "LOL. Good, they're fucking idiots who deserve to die."
It literally doesn't matter who, what, when, where, or why. The rhetorical warfare doesn't make a difference anymore because it will be extreme on everyone, Trump is just a fucking side show.
If you want to win the election, you're going to need to win with Trump's base, and the dissolution Left & Center who watched everything go wrong in the past 4 years. There's at least 30 million Americans who are psychologically conditioned by the Democrats to behave with unrepentant hatred and violence against anyone they are commanded to. That will not change. If Joy Reid gets on the television and screams, "It is time for us to cut down the tall trees!" some of your neighbors with "Hate has no Home here!" signs will break into your house with machetes to kill your children. They are already radicalized into a cult. You can't win those votes, and they will come out and vote against whomever they are told to.
Thank you for a thoughtful response. It was a good read and I especially appreciate your historical perspective regarding how the leftist media has always demonized republican candidates. I'd spend some time replying to each bit but for the most part we are in agreement so I'd just be reiterating the points you've made, though perhaps less eloquently.
What we're disagreeing on is the best tactic for winning the general election. From what you've said it's clear that you believe getting out the republican base is the most important thing a republican candidate can do. I believe it's more important to ensure that the democratic base does not turn out heavily. We both agree that winning independents and disillusioned Biden voters is important.
Let me argue for my preferred tactic step by step:
There are actually quite a large number of independent or unregistered voters, so they are very important (see above ref)
Trump energizes both republican and democratic bases equally. Since (1) this is at best a wash for Trump but more likely a slight edge for Biden (only slight because much of the democratic base's superior size is located in heavily blue states which are not in electoral contention)
Trump did poorly amongst independents in 2020 and I do not think the multiple indictments (however politically motivated they are) will net him more of their support in 2024. Counterbalancing that is that independents have had a chance to experience just how bad Biden is and that may play in Trump's favor. I expect he will perform roughly the same with this group in 2024.
So, in my view this works out as a wash or slight edge to Biden on the bases and an edge to Biden on the independents if Trump is the nominee. Not exactly a winning formula.
Now, given what you've written I expect you would dispute item (3) first and foremost. I feel like you're saying that the left is going to show up in droves in 2024 to vote against any republican candidate and that's why the republican base must show up 'bigly' heh. My opinion is that they will not show up in anywhere near 2020 numbers if the candidate is anyone but Trump. There's something innate to Trump's particular brand of charisma that drives democratic animus like no other candidate that I've ever seen. They really, genuinely hate the guy in a way that they won't hate, eg, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Lake, or whoever despite the media's best attempts.
Again, I want to reiterate that Trump CAN win. Biden is such a weak candidate. And the left's machinations with the indictments, meant to make Trump the nominee, may drive support his way if enough people realize what they're doing. Hell, maybe the Biden corruption story will finally break in a big way. Who knows.
But his path to victory is narrow. I just don't see why we should risk giving him another shot when Biden is so weak that there is a good chance that any other republican candidate not only wins, but wins easily.
I personally believe that pretty much any of the other Republican candidates would have a better shot against Biden in the general than Trump. I know that opinion is going to be unpopular here, but I just can't see how it's not the truth.
I would love to know the thinking behind this. Do you think a candidate with a pulse would automatically have the edge over Biden? That flies in the face of basically every lesson we've learned since Bush. If the base ain't motivated, you're going to lose. There are a lot more voters in the base than there are independents.
I would love to know the thinking behind this. Do you think a candidate with a pulse would automatically have the edge over Biden?
Absolutely. Joe Biden's president has been a train wreck; it's been so bad that even the NPCs have noticed. His approval ratings are terrible, and that's very unusual for a Dem candidate since the press do such a fine job running cover for them.
When you're running against a guy like that all you have to do to win is to make the election about THEM. About THEIR record. In the general we want the R candidate to be talking about nothing but Joe Biden in every interview, every debate, every town hall. If that happens we will win. It's that simple.
If Trump is the candidate the election will be all about Donald Trump and not at all about Joe Biden. It will be about January 6th. It will be about the court cases. It will be about whatever flamboyant thing Trump is saying at the moment. And that is EXACTLY what the left want because they know that if the election is about Joe Biden they will lose.
There are a lot more voters in the base than there are independents.
That's true. And Trump does have an incredible talent for getting out the Republican base; on that front he's the best candidate since Reagan. It's his greatest strength.
If the base ain't motivated, you're going to lose.
Whether this is true or not depends on the other side of the coin: the democratic base. It's at least as large as the Republican base and unfortunately Trump's special gift for bringing people to the polls applies to dems as well. He's so polarizing that dems are as motivated to vote against him as reps are to vote for him. That's why the turnout in 2020 was so high (well that and all the bullshit rules changes around covid).
So I think the whole 'energizes the base' argument is kind of a wash. Even though independents aren't a large group the election is (once again) going to turn on them. Trump lost the group in 2020 and I believe he's polling worse among them right now than he was at the time.
But look, this whole base argument is secondary to who the election is ABOUT. If it's about Joe Biden it should be an easy win for reps regardless of the candidate. Trump is the only rep candidate that will allow the left to keep this election from being a referendum on Joe Biden, and that's why they're using these indictments to try and make him the nominee.
When you're running against a guy like that all you have to do to win is to make the election about THEM. About THEIR record. In the general we want the R candidate to be talking about nothing but Joe Biden in every interview, every debate, every town hall. If that happens we will win. It's that simple.
We tried that theory with Obama in 2012. It didn't work, and the Dems didn't even need to fraud that hard.
Obama, meanwhile, tried the "turn out the base" theory. In fact he tried so hard that he didn't even make a play for the independents. And that worked.
Want Republicans to vote? Don't nominate a limp dick candidate. I promise you, they will not vote.
Whether this is true or not depends on the other side of the coin: the democratic base. It's at least as large as the Republican base and unfortunately Trump's special gift for bringing people to the polls applies to dems as well. He's so polarizing that dems are as motivated to vote against him as reps are to vote for him. That's why the turnout in 2020 was so high (well that and all the bullshit rules changes around covid).
The idea that the Dem base beat the R base in 2020 is premised on the legitimacy of the election. What more can I say? There is no situation in which more voters will turn out with Joe Biden on the ticket instead of Obama.
I know that opinion is going to be unpopular here, but I just can't see how it's not the truth. I'm not saying Trump can't win the general -- he can -- it's just that if he does it will probably be a narrow thing and everything will have to go right for him.
Including the left fucking up the fraud in just enough places to tip the scale like they did in 2016 and the 2022 House races. They're promoting Trump as a demoralization tactic: Prop up Trump in the primary, cheat him out of the general, then tell the base that only uniparty candidates are electable. Oh, sure, they'll cheat the red side of the uniparty out of elections as well, but those candidates will play along with the farce. That's why the uniparty's "respect for democracy" and "sanctity of elections" is such bullshit. If they gave a fuck about that they a) wouldn't cheat, and b) if they insisted on cheating anyway they'd put some uniparty house nigger on the Republican ballot so there's no real fight when they steal the election.
2020 Trump outperformed in EVERY SINGLE LOCATION, except these few key cities that all shut down counting in the middle of the night and kicked out Republican poll watchers.
You are not paying attention to the multi-partisan support of Trump.
America loves an underdog, and this one is being persecuted by the very forces that everyone here in the US is mad as hell about--the faceless bureaucrats making our lives hell and a President obviously unfit to occupy anything but a hospital bed or a coffin..
Trump will recoup his legal expenses on the latest groundswell of outraged support and his merch that's got his mugshot on T-shirts and coffee mugs.
I predict even those who have never even registered to vote will pony up and vote Trump (if that's even an option next November).
Well you're definitely right about the underdog and persecution thing. And there's a good shot you're right about republican turnout if Trump gets the nomination. If he gets it I sure hope that he can ride those forces to victory.
And yeah, there's no doubt that Trump is magnificent at focusing all eyes on himself. That's his brand and he both leans into it and genuinely loves it. But... is it what we really want in a candidate for this election? If everyone is watching and talking about Trump's record and legal proceedings they are not talking about Joe Biden's god awful performance.
That's what the left wants. They know that Biden is a terrible candidate. They want to hide him in the basement again and rerun the 2020 campaign. They do not want any focus on his performance and they do not want him to have to debate. Trump will accomplish both of those goals for them, and that's why they're using the indictments to push him as the candidate.
Oh it certainly is deliberate. The media and the left, (but I repeat myself) desperately want Trump as the nominee. The media because he SELLS their content and the left because they know how incredibly weak Biden is and believe Trump is the nominee he has the best chance against.
Just look at mainstream media messaging around Trump this year. He isn't orange Hitler anymore; they've toned the rhetoric waaay down. Remember when freaking CNN even gave him a Town Hall platform back in May?
And their plan has worked to perfection. Just go back and compare when Trump's poll numbers took off to when the indictments started to drop. Republicans have rallied around Trump because he is clearly being unfairly persecuted by the left and supporting someone in that situation is practically instinctual.
I personally believe that pretty much any of the other Republican candidates would have a better shot against Biden in the general than Trump. I know that opinion is going to be unpopular here, but I just can't see how it's not the truth. I'm not saying Trump can't win the general -- he can -- it's just that if he does it will probably be a narrow thing and everything will have to go right for him. Biden will probably not even debate Trump "You didn't even attend the Republican debates", he'll say. Biden will just hang out in his basement like he did in 2020 and the MSM will run his campaign for him. The entire election cycle will be about Donald Trump and Jan 6th, rather than Joe Biden's disastrous presidency.
Biden is so weak that any candidate without Trump's baggage is going to have a very good chance at the general. The left know this, and thus we have all the indictments.
Incidentally the indictments do double duty for the leftists. First, they greatly increase the chance of Trump's nomination, which they want. Second, they completely hamstring Trump's campaign. He's going to have to spend a huge chunk of his campaign financing on legal defense. He's going to have to spend a lot of time in court. It all means a much weaker republican campaign and a much greater chance of a Biden second term. As much as I loathe leftist ideology the elite pushing their agenda are not fools. The Trump indictments are a brilliantly nefarious bit of election engineering.
I remember how excited the country was for Obama in '08. I remember the huge rallies, the general excitement and optimism around him. It wasn't like Kerry or Gore.
That was nothing compared to the spontaneous parades, rallies, and parties for Trump in '20. The dude got 13 million more votes than he did in '16. And we're supposed to believe that people hated him so much that 17 million more than in '16 voted against him/for Biden, a guy who spent half of his 5 total campaign events berating his constituents or challenging them to push-up contests.
Sorry, I don't believe it. I think anyone who thinks one of the other clowns on the Republican debate stage last night has a chance to capture a significant amount of the MAGA base is delusional.
I predict 80+ million votes for Trump this time around, and 90+ million for whatever Democrat ends up running. They're going to have to blow the lid off of fake ballot printing and lay the scam bare for everyone to see.
This is what I keep telling people. I had to drive from the peoples republic of NJ to the middle of bumfuck Kansas for a family reason back in 2019. The sheer amount of Trump flags, signs, bumper stickers, hats, etc. that I saw along the way was unbelievable. I'm talking 2 or 3 of those every single mile for whole sections of highway. Even here in NJ I still see more Trump merch than Biden merch. Hell, I've only seen about 4 cars with a Biden sticker on it, whereas there are at least 5 houses near me than have Trump signs on their lawn.
I have never in my lifetime seen a political figure with as much support as Trump. Hell, people in fucking Japan had marches for him. A country on the literal other side of the planet had people marching for this guy.
Biden has nowhere near the level of support that Trump has. Period. You have to have been living under a rock only watching CNN to think otherwise. I have met exactly 1 person who actually likes Biden (and he has autism). The only Biden voters who actually exist are people who just hate Trump enough that anyone blue will do.
I refuse to believe that a senile dementia patient who gropes his relatives in the shower and uses his crackhead son to launder money has even 1/10000th the support that Trump has.
Same. I had to drive from Florida to Vermont before the election, and guess what I saw in excess? A fuckton of ground-swell Trump support.
Zero Biden.
And for much people mumble about 'voting against Trump', I've met some people with a deep, deep hatred of Biden. From some people I wouldn't expect it from. Hell, I still remember when my boss went off on Biden, which made me take a metaphorical step back, cause he's normally a pretty chill dude and will make excuses not to bitch about people. Shocked the hell out of me, let me tell you.
100%. And it's pretty clear that there is a gigantic groundswell of support for Trump now that he's once again the complete underdog. America loves an underdog, especially one who promises to fight the powers that are making their lives hell.
They got skewered for that because it was purely a money move to save CNN's income.
I don't see how you can believe that with access to any data. Trump is the single most popular president among Republicans since Eisenhower. Trump is more popular than Reagan. You can count his disapproval among Democrats, but there's no other candidate with that level of favorability among Republicans, and it's not close. You want someone who isn't Trump to run as the nominee? Good: cut 20-30 million votes from the total, and that's what you're nominee will get at best.
The indictments aren't there to try and get him elected, they are there to physically hobble him from doing rallies, because they know that rallies both create massive turnout and support for Trump, and it also legitimizes and normalizes him to the general public.
Shutting up about him is a desperate strategy from the media that would otherwise be broadcasting him 24/7 just for the income that he generates... because he's wildly popular.
I agree that Trump is remarkable at bringing the republican base to the polls. He's both entertaining and willing to fight leftists in a way that prior to his arrival no republican would do. Many republicans are so grateful that somebody would finally do that they're loyal to the guy under any circumstance.
That said, when you think about electability you have GOT to consider the other side of the coin. As popular as Trump is among the republican base he is equally hated among the democratic base. More dems came out specifically to vote against Trump in 2020 than any other candidate ever. Yes, the bullshit rigging of election rules "because covid" certainly helped them harvest those votes but the fact remains the Trump energizes democratic voters every bit as much as he energizes republican voters.
Given that, I view the 'gets out the base' argument as a wash at best. The election will once again turn on independents' votes. Trump is right now polling worse amongst that group than he was in 2020.
Agree on both points. They aren't there to get him elected. They're there to make him the nominee. And they're working just as the left planned. Keeping him from doing rallies, campaigning, and sucking dry his election fund via legal bills is icing on the cake.
Look, I don't hate the guy. He was the right man in 2016 and thank god he beat Clinton. Just think how screwed we'd be if she'd gotten to nominate 3 supreme court justices. I'll always be eternally grateful to Trump for that, and for showing the right that being combative with the left is the way forward.
And I'm not even saying that Trump can't win. He can win if everything goes exactly right for him. But I just don't like his chances. A candidate who can make the election a referendum on Joe Biden's disastrous performance (as it should be) has got a much better shot.
I don't agree in anything but potentially raw numbers. Yes, voting against George Bush (Baby killing war criminal by the Left's standard) was just as severe as Trump. Almost all other Republican candidates get similar invectives: voting against Reagan (Hitlerian ignoramus who would get us into WW3) had the similar treatment, and so was Goldwater (Hitlerian racist who wanted to re-impose slavery and invade Vietnam), and so was George Bush Sr (War monger who raised taxes and wanted to destroy American labor), and so was Nixon (racist war-mongerer who liked murdering children and protestors for fun).
This is one of the reasons DeSantis Simps are fucking blind when it comes to the media invective against Trump. Every right-winger gets horrendous treatment, Trump just happens to be getting the worst of it since Goldwater (there's a reason for that). The idea that the media won't turn around and claim "DeSantis is EVEN WORSE than Trump" is asinine. Remember that Ted Cruz was accused of attempting to assassinate AOC, and it was taken seriously. The media are already so damned wild that if you put Jeb Bush up against Biden, the media would claim that Jeb Bush is evidence of dynastic white supremacy.
That polarization you see of Democrats against Trump is not about Trump, it's about the polarization. The Democrats aren't saying "I hate Trump, but I like some of his policies", they are saying "Everyone who supports Trump should be killed because every policy that he has ever said is inherently evil, no matter who says them and when." For example, in 2021, 30% of Democrats thought that involuntary relocation of "unvaccinated" people into concentration camps was a good idea. Trump was already out of power. They weren't doing that because they loved the "Trump Vaccine", they were doing that because there are no good Republicans. Anyone who is adjacent to a right-wing position is an enemy and deserves death. Race riots are moral. Covid Camps are moral. School shootings against catholic schools are moral. Raped kids are moral.
And that hysterical insanity has nothing to do with Trump because we can see it across the entirety of the Anglosphere and the west generally. Everyone who supports Bolsonaro is a rebel and should be shot or arrested. Everyone who supports LePen is a Nazi. Everyone who supports Zammour is pro-genocide. Everyone who supports the AfD deserves to be imprisoned or shot. Everyone who protested the Australian lockdowns is a terrorist. Everyone who objects to the suspension of the election in New Zealand is a threat to 'our democracy'. There was a Red Terror in Canada where 64 churches were attacked and a dozen or so were entirely burned. Civil Rights groups supported the firebombing campaign, and anyone who objected was supporting a genocide. When people self-immolated in protest of the lockdowns in Australia, the response from the political left was: "LOL. Good, they're fucking idiots who deserve to die."
It literally doesn't matter who, what, when, where, or why. The rhetorical warfare doesn't make a difference anymore because it will be extreme on everyone, Trump is just a fucking side show.
If you want to win the election, you're going to need to win with Trump's base, and the dissolution Left & Center who watched everything go wrong in the past 4 years. There's at least 30 million Americans who are psychologically conditioned by the Democrats to behave with unrepentant hatred and violence against anyone they are commanded to. That will not change. If Joy Reid gets on the television and screams, "It is time for us to cut down the tall trees!" some of your neighbors with "Hate has no Home here!" signs will break into your house with machetes to kill your children. They are already radicalized into a cult. You can't win those votes, and they will come out and vote against whomever they are told to.
Thank you for a thoughtful response. It was a good read and I especially appreciate your historical perspective regarding how the leftist media has always demonized republican candidates. I'd spend some time replying to each bit but for the most part we are in agreement so I'd just be reiterating the points you've made, though perhaps less eloquently.
What we're disagreeing on is the best tactic for winning the general election. From what you've said it's clear that you believe getting out the republican base is the most important thing a republican candidate can do. I believe it's more important to ensure that the democratic base does not turn out heavily. We both agree that winning independents and disillusioned Biden voters is important.
Let me argue for my preferred tactic step by step:
The democrat base is currently a fair bit larger than the republican base: https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/registered-voters-by-party
There are actually quite a large number of independent or unregistered voters, so they are very important (see above ref)
Trump energizes both republican and democratic bases equally. Since (1) this is at best a wash for Trump but more likely a slight edge for Biden (only slight because much of the democratic base's superior size is located in heavily blue states which are not in electoral contention)
Trump did poorly amongst independents in 2020 and I do not think the multiple indictments (however politically motivated they are) will net him more of their support in 2024. Counterbalancing that is that independents have had a chance to experience just how bad Biden is and that may play in Trump's favor. I expect he will perform roughly the same with this group in 2024.
So, in my view this works out as a wash or slight edge to Biden on the bases and an edge to Biden on the independents if Trump is the nominee. Not exactly a winning formula.
Now, given what you've written I expect you would dispute item (3) first and foremost. I feel like you're saying that the left is going to show up in droves in 2024 to vote against any republican candidate and that's why the republican base must show up 'bigly' heh. My opinion is that they will not show up in anywhere near 2020 numbers if the candidate is anyone but Trump. There's something innate to Trump's particular brand of charisma that drives democratic animus like no other candidate that I've ever seen. They really, genuinely hate the guy in a way that they won't hate, eg, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Lake, or whoever despite the media's best attempts.
Again, I want to reiterate that Trump CAN win. Biden is such a weak candidate. And the left's machinations with the indictments, meant to make Trump the nominee, may drive support his way if enough people realize what they're doing. Hell, maybe the Biden corruption story will finally break in a big way. Who knows.
But his path to victory is narrow. I just don't see why we should risk giving him another shot when Biden is so weak that there is a good chance that any other republican candidate not only wins, but wins easily.
I would love to know the thinking behind this. Do you think a candidate with a pulse would automatically have the edge over Biden? That flies in the face of basically every lesson we've learned since Bush. If the base ain't motivated, you're going to lose. There are a lot more voters in the base than there are independents.
Absolutely. Joe Biden's president has been a train wreck; it's been so bad that even the NPCs have noticed. His approval ratings are terrible, and that's very unusual for a Dem candidate since the press do such a fine job running cover for them.
When you're running against a guy like that all you have to do to win is to make the election about THEM. About THEIR record. In the general we want the R candidate to be talking about nothing but Joe Biden in every interview, every debate, every town hall. If that happens we will win. It's that simple.
If Trump is the candidate the election will be all about Donald Trump and not at all about Joe Biden. It will be about January 6th. It will be about the court cases. It will be about whatever flamboyant thing Trump is saying at the moment. And that is EXACTLY what the left want because they know that if the election is about Joe Biden they will lose.
That's true. And Trump does have an incredible talent for getting out the Republican base; on that front he's the best candidate since Reagan. It's his greatest strength.
Whether this is true or not depends on the other side of the coin: the democratic base. It's at least as large as the Republican base and unfortunately Trump's special gift for bringing people to the polls applies to dems as well. He's so polarizing that dems are as motivated to vote against him as reps are to vote for him. That's why the turnout in 2020 was so high (well that and all the bullshit rules changes around covid).
So I think the whole 'energizes the base' argument is kind of a wash. Even though independents aren't a large group the election is (once again) going to turn on them. Trump lost the group in 2020 and I believe he's polling worse among them right now than he was at the time.
But look, this whole base argument is secondary to who the election is ABOUT. If it's about Joe Biden it should be an easy win for reps regardless of the candidate. Trump is the only rep candidate that will allow the left to keep this election from being a referendum on Joe Biden, and that's why they're using these indictments to try and make him the nominee.
We tried that theory with Obama in 2012. It didn't work, and the Dems didn't even need to fraud that hard.
Obama, meanwhile, tried the "turn out the base" theory. In fact he tried so hard that he didn't even make a play for the independents. And that worked.
Want Republicans to vote? Don't nominate a limp dick candidate. I promise you, they will not vote.
The idea that the Dem base beat the R base in 2020 is premised on the legitimacy of the election. What more can I say? There is no situation in which more voters will turn out with Joe Biden on the ticket instead of Obama.
No, the other side of the coin at this point is the ballot printing machines.
If Trump isn't running, that just means that the Democrats will have to cheat slightly less.
Including the left fucking up the fraud in just enough places to tip the scale like they did in 2016 and the 2022 House races. They're promoting Trump as a demoralization tactic: Prop up Trump in the primary, cheat him out of the general, then tell the base that only uniparty candidates are electable. Oh, sure, they'll cheat the red side of the uniparty out of elections as well, but those candidates will play along with the farce. That's why the uniparty's "respect for democracy" and "sanctity of elections" is such bullshit. If they gave a fuck about that they a) wouldn't cheat, and b) if they insisted on cheating anyway they'd put some uniparty house nigger on the Republican ballot so there's no real fight when they steal the election.
2020 Trump outperformed in EVERY SINGLE LOCATION, except these few key cities that all shut down counting in the middle of the night and kicked out Republican poll watchers.
You are not paying attention to the multi-partisan support of Trump.
America loves an underdog, and this one is being persecuted by the very forces that everyone here in the US is mad as hell about--the faceless bureaucrats making our lives hell and a President obviously unfit to occupy anything but a hospital bed or a coffin..
Trump will recoup his legal expenses on the latest groundswell of outraged support and his merch that's got his mugshot on T-shirts and coffee mugs.
I predict even those who have never even registered to vote will pony up and vote Trump (if that's even an option next November).
Well you're definitely right about the underdog and persecution thing. And there's a good shot you're right about republican turnout if Trump gets the nomination. If he gets it I sure hope that he can ride those forces to victory.
And yeah, there's no doubt that Trump is magnificent at focusing all eyes on himself. That's his brand and he both leans into it and genuinely loves it. But... is it what we really want in a candidate for this election? If everyone is watching and talking about Trump's record and legal proceedings they are not talking about Joe Biden's god awful performance.
That's what the left wants. They know that Biden is a terrible candidate. They want to hide him in the basement again and rerun the 2020 campaign. They do not want any focus on his performance and they do not want him to have to debate. Trump will accomplish both of those goals for them, and that's why they're using the indictments to push him as the candidate.