I don't see how you can believe that with access to any data. Trump is the single most popular president among Republicans since Eisenhower.
I agree that Trump is remarkable at bringing the republican base to the polls. He's both entertaining and willing to fight leftists in a way that prior to his arrival no republican would do. Many republicans are so grateful that somebody would finally do that they're loyal to the guy under any circumstance.
That said, when you think about electability you have GOT to consider the other side of the coin. As popular as Trump is among the republican base he is equally hated among the democratic base. More dems came out specifically to vote against Trump in 2020 than any other candidate ever. Yes, the bullshit rigging of election rules "because covid" certainly helped them harvest those votes but the fact remains the Trump energizes democratic voters every bit as much as he energizes republican voters.
Given that, I view the 'gets out the base' argument as a wash at best. The election will once again turn on independents' votes. Trump is right now polling worse amongst that group than he was in 2020.
The indictments aren't there to try and get him elected, they are there to physically hobble him from doing rallies
Agree on both points. They aren't there to get him elected. They're there to make him the nominee. And they're working just as the left planned. Keeping him from doing rallies, campaigning, and sucking dry his election fund via legal bills is icing on the cake.
Look, I don't hate the guy. He was the right man in 2016 and thank god he beat Clinton. Just think how screwed we'd be if she'd gotten to nominate 3 supreme court justices. I'll always be eternally grateful to Trump for that, and for showing the right that being combative with the left is the way forward.
And I'm not even saying that Trump can't win. He can win if everything goes exactly right for him. But I just don't like his chances. A candidate who can make the election a referendum on Joe Biden's disastrous performance (as it should be) has got a much better shot.
More dems came out specifically to vote against Trump in 2020 than any other candidate ever.
I don't agree in anything but potentially raw numbers. Yes, voting against George Bush (Baby killing war criminal by the Left's standard) was just as severe as Trump. Almost all other Republican candidates get similar invectives: voting against Reagan (Hitlerian ignoramus who would get us into WW3) had the similar treatment, and so was Goldwater (Hitlerian racist who wanted to re-impose slavery and invade Vietnam), and so was George Bush Sr (War monger who raised taxes and wanted to destroy American labor), and so was Nixon (racist war-mongerer who liked murdering children and protestors for fun).
This is one of the reasons DeSantis Simps are fucking blind when it comes to the media invective against Trump. Every right-winger gets horrendous treatment, Trump just happens to be getting the worst of it since Goldwater (there's a reason for that). The idea that the media won't turn around and claim "DeSantis is EVEN WORSE than Trump" is asinine. Remember that Ted Cruz was accused of attempting to assassinate AOC, and it was taken seriously. The media are already so damned wild that if you put Jeb Bush up against Biden, the media would claim that Jeb Bush is evidence of dynastic white supremacy.
That polarization you see of Democrats against Trump is not about Trump, it's about the polarization. The Democrats aren't saying "I hate Trump, but I like some of his policies", they are saying "Everyone who supports Trump should be killed because every policy that he has ever said is inherently evil, no matter who says them and when." For example, in 2021, 30% of Democrats thought that involuntary relocation of "unvaccinated" people into concentration camps was a good idea. Trump was already out of power. They weren't doing that because they loved the "Trump Vaccine", they were doing that because there are no good Republicans. Anyone who is adjacent to a right-wing position is an enemy and deserves death. Race riots are moral. Covid Camps are moral. School shootings against catholic schools are moral. Raped kids are moral.
And that hysterical insanity has nothing to do with Trump because we can see it across the entirety of the Anglosphere and the west generally. Everyone who supports Bolsonaro is a rebel and should be shot or arrested. Everyone who supports LePen is a Nazi. Everyone who supports Zammour is pro-genocide. Everyone who supports the AfD deserves to be imprisoned or shot. Everyone who protested the Australian lockdowns is a terrorist. Everyone who objects to the suspension of the election in New Zealand is a threat to 'our democracy'. There was a Red Terror in Canada where 64 churches were attacked and a dozen or so were entirely burned. Civil Rights groups supported the firebombing campaign, and anyone who objected was supporting a genocide. When people self-immolated in protest of the lockdowns in Australia, the response from the political left was: "LOL. Good, they're fucking idiots who deserve to die."
It literally doesn't matter who, what, when, where, or why. The rhetorical warfare doesn't make a difference anymore because it will be extreme on everyone, Trump is just a fucking side show.
If you want to win the election, you're going to need to win with Trump's base, and the dissolution Left & Center who watched everything go wrong in the past 4 years. There's at least 30 million Americans who are psychologically conditioned by the Democrats to behave with unrepentant hatred and violence against anyone they are commanded to. That will not change. If Joy Reid gets on the television and screams, "It is time for us to cut down the tall trees!" some of your neighbors with "Hate has no Home here!" signs will break into your house with machetes to kill your children. They are already radicalized into a cult. You can't win those votes, and they will come out and vote against whomever they are told to.
Thank you for a thoughtful response. It was a good read and I especially appreciate your historical perspective regarding how the leftist media has always demonized republican candidates. I'd spend some time replying to each bit but for the most part we are in agreement so I'd just be reiterating the points you've made, though perhaps less eloquently.
What we're disagreeing on is the best tactic for winning the general election. From what you've said it's clear that you believe getting out the republican base is the most important thing a republican candidate can do. I believe it's more important to ensure that the democratic base does not turn out heavily. We both agree that winning independents and disillusioned Biden voters is important.
Let me argue for my preferred tactic step by step:
There are actually quite a large number of independent or unregistered voters, so they are very important (see above ref)
Trump energizes both republican and democratic bases equally. Since (1) this is at best a wash for Trump but more likely a slight edge for Biden (only slight because much of the democratic base's superior size is located in heavily blue states which are not in electoral contention)
Trump did poorly amongst independents in 2020 and I do not think the multiple indictments (however politically motivated they are) will net him more of their support in 2024. Counterbalancing that is that independents have had a chance to experience just how bad Biden is and that may play in Trump's favor. I expect he will perform roughly the same with this group in 2024.
So, in my view this works out as a wash or slight edge to Biden on the bases and an edge to Biden on the independents if Trump is the nominee. Not exactly a winning formula.
Now, given what you've written I expect you would dispute item (3) first and foremost. I feel like you're saying that the left is going to show up in droves in 2024 to vote against any republican candidate and that's why the republican base must show up 'bigly' heh. My opinion is that they will not show up in anywhere near 2020 numbers if the candidate is anyone but Trump. There's something innate to Trump's particular brand of charisma that drives democratic animus like no other candidate that I've ever seen. They really, genuinely hate the guy in a way that they won't hate, eg, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Lake, or whoever despite the media's best attempts.
Again, I want to reiterate that Trump CAN win. Biden is such a weak candidate. And the left's machinations with the indictments, meant to make Trump the nominee, may drive support his way if enough people realize what they're doing. Hell, maybe the Biden corruption story will finally break in a big way. Who knows.
But his path to victory is narrow. I just don't see why we should risk giving him another shot when Biden is so weak that there is a good chance that any other republican candidate not only wins, but wins easily.
I agree that Trump is remarkable at bringing the republican base to the polls. He's both entertaining and willing to fight leftists in a way that prior to his arrival no republican would do. Many republicans are so grateful that somebody would finally do that they're loyal to the guy under any circumstance.
That said, when you think about electability you have GOT to consider the other side of the coin. As popular as Trump is among the republican base he is equally hated among the democratic base. More dems came out specifically to vote against Trump in 2020 than any other candidate ever. Yes, the bullshit rigging of election rules "because covid" certainly helped them harvest those votes but the fact remains the Trump energizes democratic voters every bit as much as he energizes republican voters.
Given that, I view the 'gets out the base' argument as a wash at best. The election will once again turn on independents' votes. Trump is right now polling worse amongst that group than he was in 2020.
Agree on both points. They aren't there to get him elected. They're there to make him the nominee. And they're working just as the left planned. Keeping him from doing rallies, campaigning, and sucking dry his election fund via legal bills is icing on the cake.
Look, I don't hate the guy. He was the right man in 2016 and thank god he beat Clinton. Just think how screwed we'd be if she'd gotten to nominate 3 supreme court justices. I'll always be eternally grateful to Trump for that, and for showing the right that being combative with the left is the way forward.
And I'm not even saying that Trump can't win. He can win if everything goes exactly right for him. But I just don't like his chances. A candidate who can make the election a referendum on Joe Biden's disastrous performance (as it should be) has got a much better shot.
I don't agree in anything but potentially raw numbers. Yes, voting against George Bush (Baby killing war criminal by the Left's standard) was just as severe as Trump. Almost all other Republican candidates get similar invectives: voting against Reagan (Hitlerian ignoramus who would get us into WW3) had the similar treatment, and so was Goldwater (Hitlerian racist who wanted to re-impose slavery and invade Vietnam), and so was George Bush Sr (War monger who raised taxes and wanted to destroy American labor), and so was Nixon (racist war-mongerer who liked murdering children and protestors for fun).
This is one of the reasons DeSantis Simps are fucking blind when it comes to the media invective against Trump. Every right-winger gets horrendous treatment, Trump just happens to be getting the worst of it since Goldwater (there's a reason for that). The idea that the media won't turn around and claim "DeSantis is EVEN WORSE than Trump" is asinine. Remember that Ted Cruz was accused of attempting to assassinate AOC, and it was taken seriously. The media are already so damned wild that if you put Jeb Bush up against Biden, the media would claim that Jeb Bush is evidence of dynastic white supremacy.
That polarization you see of Democrats against Trump is not about Trump, it's about the polarization. The Democrats aren't saying "I hate Trump, but I like some of his policies", they are saying "Everyone who supports Trump should be killed because every policy that he has ever said is inherently evil, no matter who says them and when." For example, in 2021, 30% of Democrats thought that involuntary relocation of "unvaccinated" people into concentration camps was a good idea. Trump was already out of power. They weren't doing that because they loved the "Trump Vaccine", they were doing that because there are no good Republicans. Anyone who is adjacent to a right-wing position is an enemy and deserves death. Race riots are moral. Covid Camps are moral. School shootings against catholic schools are moral. Raped kids are moral.
And that hysterical insanity has nothing to do with Trump because we can see it across the entirety of the Anglosphere and the west generally. Everyone who supports Bolsonaro is a rebel and should be shot or arrested. Everyone who supports LePen is a Nazi. Everyone who supports Zammour is pro-genocide. Everyone who supports the AfD deserves to be imprisoned or shot. Everyone who protested the Australian lockdowns is a terrorist. Everyone who objects to the suspension of the election in New Zealand is a threat to 'our democracy'. There was a Red Terror in Canada where 64 churches were attacked and a dozen or so were entirely burned. Civil Rights groups supported the firebombing campaign, and anyone who objected was supporting a genocide. When people self-immolated in protest of the lockdowns in Australia, the response from the political left was: "LOL. Good, they're fucking idiots who deserve to die."
It literally doesn't matter who, what, when, where, or why. The rhetorical warfare doesn't make a difference anymore because it will be extreme on everyone, Trump is just a fucking side show.
If you want to win the election, you're going to need to win with Trump's base, and the dissolution Left & Center who watched everything go wrong in the past 4 years. There's at least 30 million Americans who are psychologically conditioned by the Democrats to behave with unrepentant hatred and violence against anyone they are commanded to. That will not change. If Joy Reid gets on the television and screams, "It is time for us to cut down the tall trees!" some of your neighbors with "Hate has no Home here!" signs will break into your house with machetes to kill your children. They are already radicalized into a cult. You can't win those votes, and they will come out and vote against whomever they are told to.
Thank you for a thoughtful response. It was a good read and I especially appreciate your historical perspective regarding how the leftist media has always demonized republican candidates. I'd spend some time replying to each bit but for the most part we are in agreement so I'd just be reiterating the points you've made, though perhaps less eloquently.
What we're disagreeing on is the best tactic for winning the general election. From what you've said it's clear that you believe getting out the republican base is the most important thing a republican candidate can do. I believe it's more important to ensure that the democratic base does not turn out heavily. We both agree that winning independents and disillusioned Biden voters is important.
Let me argue for my preferred tactic step by step:
The democrat base is currently a fair bit larger than the republican base: https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/registered-voters-by-party
There are actually quite a large number of independent or unregistered voters, so they are very important (see above ref)
Trump energizes both republican and democratic bases equally. Since (1) this is at best a wash for Trump but more likely a slight edge for Biden (only slight because much of the democratic base's superior size is located in heavily blue states which are not in electoral contention)
Trump did poorly amongst independents in 2020 and I do not think the multiple indictments (however politically motivated they are) will net him more of their support in 2024. Counterbalancing that is that independents have had a chance to experience just how bad Biden is and that may play in Trump's favor. I expect he will perform roughly the same with this group in 2024.
So, in my view this works out as a wash or slight edge to Biden on the bases and an edge to Biden on the independents if Trump is the nominee. Not exactly a winning formula.
Now, given what you've written I expect you would dispute item (3) first and foremost. I feel like you're saying that the left is going to show up in droves in 2024 to vote against any republican candidate and that's why the republican base must show up 'bigly' heh. My opinion is that they will not show up in anywhere near 2020 numbers if the candidate is anyone but Trump. There's something innate to Trump's particular brand of charisma that drives democratic animus like no other candidate that I've ever seen. They really, genuinely hate the guy in a way that they won't hate, eg, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Lake, or whoever despite the media's best attempts.
Again, I want to reiterate that Trump CAN win. Biden is such a weak candidate. And the left's machinations with the indictments, meant to make Trump the nominee, may drive support his way if enough people realize what they're doing. Hell, maybe the Biden corruption story will finally break in a big way. Who knows.
But his path to victory is narrow. I just don't see why we should risk giving him another shot when Biden is so weak that there is a good chance that any other republican candidate not only wins, but wins easily.