56 Infection Fatality Rate of Alpha Variant COVID Turns Out to be <0.1% (archive.ph) posted 44 days ago by The_Mad_Draklor 44 days ago by The_Mad_Draklor +56 / -0 54 comments share 54 comments share save hide report block hide replies
INSANE that they don't break that up further, because as soon as you remove the 40 - 60 age range it becomes so tiny it isn't even worth mentioning.
And that includes the rampant over-reporting of Covid as cause of death worldwide...so the reality is even lower.
Add onto the fact that at this point, everyone has already been infected with (a much weaker version of) COVID and consequently the natural immunity drops the already near-zero IFR even lower.
Is Omicron weaker than the Alpha variant, or just weaker than Delta?
Weaker than both and Omicron was since the beginning of last year, so we're 2-3 variants removed from it by now.
Omicron's illness severity is much lower than Alpha and Delta. Omicron is also more transmissible than both of those variants. It's actually the same mutation that causes both of these effects. The mutation that created Omicron made it better able to infect tissue in the upper respiratory system, like the nose and throat. As it became more attuned to those tissues, it became less able to infect lung tissue.
So, because it mainly stayed in the upper respiratory tract, it spread very easily, but it didn't kill as often, because upper respiratory infections only really become fatal if they spread to the lungs and do serious damage there.
That's what I thought. But since no one has cared for Covid for about a year, I've never bothered to look into the matter. When last I checked, which was a year ago, there was still doubt about whether Omicron was more, equally or less deadly than the Alpha variant.
It is convergent evolution towards the common cold.
The cold is also a corona virus, and it has a strategy of being highly transmissible and mutating quickly, so as to be able to dodge the immune response and re-infect individuals.
The common cold also stimulates mucus production and sneezing, so as to further spread itself. The patients sneeze infected mucus everywhere for a day or a week, then they are fine.
It is a highly successful strategy.
They pulled this switcheroo right out the gate. We’ve always counted flu death rates using IFR. Then they suddenly decided to report Covid death rate using CFR. This multiplied the death rate by at least 10x.
Now consider the likely reasoning behind such a change. We previously used the IFR because we didn’t want people panicking over misleading stats about the common flu. They switched the methodology because they wanted to create panic.
We also had the big tech censors who made it impossible to say how mild covid actually was
Here in Poland the problem of this winter is a flu epidemic (https://www.pap.pl/en/news/news%2C1514495%2Cnearly-300000-cases-flu-poland-one-week-december.html), after the prior "disappearance of flu" like elsewhere. But, almost no one's dying (1 person died during this week of 300,000 new infections), just like almost no one's been dying of flu in Poland ever since the killer strain pandemic in 1971 (from Asia too) when over 5,000 died. While over 119,000 in Poland died of covid in the same official stats, including 3,000 in last half year.
Yeah, this is the point I was going to make:
This was all intentionally misleading, from the start…
Just wait until the next time they decide to pull something like this. They’ve had the practice. They know how to go even harder next time…
Places that voted back in their incumbent “lockdown-happy” governments, or lurched to the left, are fucked…
lol my Dad never believed me no matter the evidence I showed him like this. Way back at the peak of the government doing this. I will have to see if he will believe this article.
The paper analyzed 31 seroprevalence studies in the pre-jab era, i.e. none of the subjects had the jab nor prior infection. Median infection fatality rate (IFR) for 0-59 yo was 0.034%. IFR for 0-69 yo was 0.097%.
Stratified by age, the IFR is even lower for the young demographics. Subjects aged 0-19 had an IFR of a measly 0.0003%. 20-29 year olds had an IFR of 0.002%. It's until you go past 50 yo when the IFR finally exceeds 0.1%, but it never hits anywhere close to 1%.
I will emphasize again, this is among people who had no prior immunity to the alpha variant.
You're all missing a rather serious implication here.
The fatality rate of Covid treatment with respirators was 85%.
How many tens of thousands of people were inadvertently executed by hospitals using respirators to completely blow out people's lungs?
It's one thing that really worried me. The hospital staff said that they had to "max out" the respirators to maximum air pressure to try and force air into the lungs of patients who were having trouble breathing, but Covid was making those alveoli's weak, causing them to burst. This is what lead to the reports of "pink bubbles" in the mouths of Covid patients. I remember Italy and Germany getting the alpha strain around the same time, and the Germans had far fewer fatalities than the Italians. The Italian doctors and hospitals actually argued publicly that Germany was fudging their own numbers to make the outbreak seem less bad than it was. But unlike the Italian hospitals, the Germans weren't flooding every single person into the hospital, and was only treating them with respirators if it was already absolutely necessary.
How many people were accidentally killed by respirators?
Then on top of that, how violently irresponsible was it for the media to scream about the dangers of HQC when Trump took it, when it was a viable alternative to the fucking respirators.
It's actually worse than what you're describing. The media published hitpieces against HCQ after an Arizona woman poisoned herself and killed her husband with fish tank cleaner. The media framed it as a couple who mistakenly confused fish tank cleaner with HCQ and poisoned themselves in an innocent mistake.
Not to mention the media and medical establishment did the same thing with ivermectin with the "horse dewormer" narrative.
I know it's worse, I was already mad and didn't want to make myself any more mad.
And yeah, not just "horse dewormer" nonsense. Ivermectine was banned as a word across social media, and journals actually removed published articles regarding ivermectine so no one in the scientific community could even cite why Ivermectine could work. On top of that, Merk never decided to take legal action against the defamation of their product.
No fucking amnesty.
There can be no fucking amnesty for these crimes.
How did the speculation turn out that she did that to kill her husband?
I can't find if she was ever arrested or not but apparently his toxicology report showed that she'd given him far more than the teaspoon she claimed. She also had been charged with assaulting him previously.
12% of the Italian deaths were found, on investigation, to have been from COVID as a primary cause.
The rest COVID was a complication to the actual cause of death.
For example: It turns out that if you have a chronic heart condition and kidney failure, then you are susceptible to viral infection.
HCQ was most effective as an early treatment. HCQ given with Zinc as a cofactor increased the survival rate by something like three times.
The thing is that it was fucking trivial to look at the demographics that were most at risk to death by COVID19. People who died (on average) were 81 and had three co-morbidities.
HCQ and Zinc could be given as a prophylactic to the highest risk demographics, with the doses increased at the first sign of infection. This would have been trivial to do. It still isn't being done.
Even if HCQ has been superseded by Ivermectin as a more effective treatment, it was definitively known in Feb 2021 that HCQ would be a lot better than nothing.
This is very clearly a better population wide care protocol than the clot-shots or shitty ICU "last gasp" respirator protocols.
And it was clear not by 2021, but by June of 2020.
One of the hosts of TMZ was ranting a bit about the injections, and his co-host interrupted him and told him "facts evolve". Truth doesn't evolve, narratives do. The "facts evolve" because you were fucking wrong. The decision to suspend HCQ because "Orange Man Bad", resulting in deaths, was and is indefensible.
So we could expect only about 0.1% of the American population to die from OG COVID? Possibly a bit more since Americans tend to be fat and diabetic.
the US and many other countries invented a new way of counting deaths that had never been used before. specifically for covid, no causation was required. if you had covid in the last 28 days in the UK prior to death, you were a covid death. the US was even broader, removing the time limit, and not even requiring a positive covid test. the doctor was paid up to $60k more simply for the word covid being on the death certificate, and the word covid being on the death certificate was sufficient to count it as a covid death.
at no time in history has such a low standard been used in medicine, one where causation is presumed and financially incentivized. if we used the same standard for other issues, "diarrhea" and "dinner with the in-laws" would be top 10 causes of death.
Diarrhoea is pretty damn deadly. Shit can kill you, especially children.
under the same standard, "taking your children for a walk" would be a top 10 cause of death.
it's so ridiculous that it's clearly nefarious.
modern “academia” is mostly lying for the state
One fairly common and sad thing to read in most old historical documents:
"Died of Dysentery"
Basically: poor bastard literally got sick and shit himself until he fucking died. There's a lot of horrible ways to go, but I'm putting that up there with untreated Rabies and Alzheimer's.
A few years ago, the CDC (yeah, I know yuck) estimated around 70% COVID deaths came from people who were overweight. So if you're a healthy person, your chances of dying from alpha COVID after infection is even lower than 0.1%.
That tracks since like 70% of Americans are fatties anyway.
I've had people ask me why there were so many Covid deaths in the US. That was my hypothesis as well. Not "BAD REPUBLICANS".
It was also bad stats. America was constantly being compared to nations with fractions of its population yet the deaths were always in raw numbers instead of relative.
It was also the spotlight nation for "BADDIE BAD" so its deaths were being incredibly fluffed up to make it look worse than it was, while most of the comparison nations were likely doing the opposite to make it look like their method was working.
I mean, obviously you're going to compare by capita. 1 million dead in the US sounds like a lot, but per capita it's also more than in a country like Germany.
Interestingly, unless you are Sweden or the US, no one cares about your death rate. There are huge differences in death rates between other countries, and no one who cares to explain why.
Not only that, there was also the practice that Whitmer and Cumo engaged in of deliberately putting Covid patients into nursing homes. New York's death rate was astronomical compared to everyone, and no one could figure out why. Cuomo said that the hospitals were completely overwhelmed and over-flooded. That's when people began video-taping trips to hospitals. Empty hospitals and empty parking lots, all while the governor was saying that they were completely flooded and we needed whole additional field hospitals to house patients (hospitals that were never used).
Turns out that when he sent Covid patients into the nursing homes, the extremely old, low mobility, dementia ridden, heavily medicated, patients got sick from Covid and died. This is because, of course they would, they already have badly weakened immune systems. And even if they didn't and something else killed them, as Adamrises pointed out, fuck you we counted it as a Covid death anyway because obviously every single person in that nursing home has Covid due to there being no capacity for nursing homes to contain the most aggressively infectious disease on record.
Any idiot could have told Cuomo and his staff that putting vulnerable nursing home patients in with Covid patients would likely kill the nursing home residents because of their weakened state, and the nursing homes had literally no capacity to control an outbreak with a virus that infectious. Instead they rolled right on through and didn't think for one second about the consequences until it became obvious and they had to start covering it up.
Cuomo seems to be guilty of 50,000 counts of negligent homicide.
Whitmer seems to be guilty of around 15,000.
With OG COVID, the infections were clustered in hot-spots.
For a long while the great majority of infections and deaths were clustered in a few cities, with most of those coming from New York city.
I have a friend who was doing primary research on COVID 19, specifically transmission by surfaces, who was in contact with medical professionals in New York at the time.
He said that they were absolutely freaking out. There was a brief period (I recall less than a week) where the spike in deaths was apocalyptic. He told me that the medical professionals he had been talking with were predicting that they would be stacking bodies in the streets before the month was out.
At this time the FEMA pop up hospital was available, and the army hospital ship was on hand to take patients.
I distinctly remember pointing out to my scientist friend that the hospitals were seeing selection bias. Only the worst cases were arriving at hospital. I also pointed out that the survivors would be gaining immunity, and as soon as that reached 30% it would have an impact on transmission rates.
I recall us agreeing to disagree; with me stating that if I was right we would see a sharp drop in infections and deaths. If he was right it would be in the news soon enough.
It turns out that I was more correct; but it bears remembering that all the hospitals in New York were freaking out to the point of panic.
This the period when Cuomo was sending infected to nursing homes. He was determined not to use any of the help sent by Trump and the federal government.
This is what rattles me. The hospitals were wrong like this well into 2021.
I had a conversation with a co-worker who told me that she had family that was working at a hospital. They were literally giving briefings to the staff and telling them that they would be flooded with patients, particularly due to the unvaccinated, likely resulting in a daily death toll spike for the state that would reach over 7,000 by the end of the week. The daily death toll at the time was less than 1,000, and the end of the week was in 3 days. Again, this was in 2021.
I told her that this would be utterly improbable given that this would be several times higher than the highest daily death toll recorded for the state on record. The end of the week came and went with effectively no change.
This same co-worker also told me that the hospital staff had been informed that the Omicron variant of Covid was particularly lethal for children. As in, it was more likely to kill children than the elderly.
Don't forget that many hospital administrators banned the use of Ivermectin in treating Covid patients explicitly, and that they were briefing local governments and businesses how to push injections, encourage lockdowns, and mask mandates. They were also the people who collapsed their staff of doctors and nurses with the injection mandate, and blamed the whole thing on "stress".
My question is: why are the hospital administrators lying directly to doctors and nurses, and passing explicitly fictional information. Then, my next question is why is there no criminal culpability for the misconduct, malfeasance, and malpractice they've incited.
Here in Australia, in my state the only treatment protocol for the vulnerable (eg, anything more than just IV fluids and rest) is the Pfizer anti-virials. One course only.
Doctors were prescribing the fourth jab, which was effectively meaningless against Omicron. Because they feared the consequences if they DID NOT prescribe Clot Shot #4 for the elderly.
They medical establishment had absolutely no fear of consequences of any kind for death as an injury from the Pfizer therapeutic. There is an explicit agreement from the bottom to the top of the (state run) hospital to minimize the cause of death and to shield the doctors responsible.
The politicians, at the top, are getting all of their information from Lobbyists. They are absolutely, completely convinced that they can hush-up any malpractice. They are desperately afraid of being seen to do nothing. Medical companies, specifically Pfizer in this case, have turned up to offer a turn-key solution. "Hey! Here is a complete set of treatment protocols that we know works. Put it in place, and you can be seen taking immediate, effective action!"
Computing Forever had an excellent series of videos on YouTube, before his channel was canceled, which showed that both the Gates Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation had been waiting since H1N1 Swine Flu (COVID19 - 10 years) to seize the opportunity of the next pandemic.
The immediate projections (computer modeling) that came out immediately on the discovery of COVID19 (then the Wuhan Virus) overestimated fatalities by more than two orders of magnitude. They were later shown to be produced by a Democrat CPAC funded think tank. The initial figures were beyond trash; they deliberately, willfully misleading.
All of the policy has been set at the political level; with the political leadership (at the state level) dictating to the media and then to the medical apparatus.
Any doctor who spoke out was ruthlessly canceled. Doctors were canceled for trying to publicize inexpensive, effective prevention and treatment protocols.
The Media establishment has been complicit at every step.
If you want the most excellent, most relevant modern example of fascism, here you are. Truth is a function of politics. Science is a function of politics. Actions leading to literal deaths of tens thousands are irrelevant. There is no boundary that can be drawn between political parties and the media apparatus, nor the medical institutions. They have effectively been a single, monolithic unit; all working together to deliver political outcomes.
20 million dead in the US by December 2020. 1 million dead in the UK by December 2020.
I think I was arguing that we were in a state of Technocratic Fascism (Technofascism) back in 2018. All this did was prove it. So did Australia's concentration camps.
i like how they completely ignore that trump was the only one that wanted to do anything about the virus initially and they just called him a waaaaaaycissss until they suddenly decided that the virus was actually a really big deal u guise
What the other user said, but also the fact that many people who died within a certain time frame of a positive COVID test were lumped into the numbers despite dying of other causes.
COVID killed George Floyd.
The sad thing is that it does not mean that. 71.6% of American adults > 20 are overweight (or obese). Around 70% of deaths from any source being in overweight people would be the expectation if being overweight made no difference.
Apparently, I was off with the percentage and the context. It was 78% of COVID hospitalizations and/or deaths came from people who were overweight or obese, so there is a slight over-representation.
Slight, but younger people are also more likely to not be obese compared to older people. Metabolism slows down and all that. They're also more likely to die to anything. So that needs to be taken into account as well.
Statistically, it really makes little difference if you're technically obese or not. At least compared to many other much more important factors.
No because these are global numbers and the US ages are considerably older than the global average. Old people die at far, far higher rates, while younger people it's like 1 out of 10,000.
It's definitely higher if you include those 70 and older, which this excludes.
The funny thing is, it's not exactly far off early estimates by people who were not intent on deceiving people. In fact, I heard 0,2% (I think) on Sam Harris' show (pls no bully) in March or April of 2020, from a Johns Hopkins University researcher.
It fucking kills me. People were arguing with me about the virus, and handing me scientific papers they'd never read, that fucking agreed with my positions as if it were some kind of win.
They're right that this is the greatest man-made medical/health disaster since the holocaust.
Rofecoxib was (at the time) the largest single out of court settlement in the history of the world.
It was literally taught in universities. It is a textbook fuck-up.
It was thousands of times safer than the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. It affected a few percent of a specific demographic, in aggregate. The effects were only detectable by use of actuarial techniques applied to the entire population.
I guess the thing that Big Pharma learned is to get the law changed before it is applied.
Hell, why change the law when you can just change the definition of words?
Why Not Both.gif
tAkE yOuR sHoT!!!!
This doesn't surprise me. It seems in line with what Dr. John Ioannidis was saying from the start.
people still buying into variants and viruses need to be the first to go.
We've known from the beginning that the IFR was far lower in younger populations than the media claimed.
Scientists exaggerated the IFR because they grossly lowballed their estimates of total infections, and IFR is a direct percentage of deaths versus infections, but credible estimates were between 0.2%-0.5%, with scientists making media appearances often pushing the higher end.
OP's title does not mention that this study excluded old people. So the IFR in this study is not the total IFR, it's only for young people. The total IFR is much higher because IFR skyrockets for people over 70 and keeps going up.
You can estimate the IFR once you notice the pattern. The study measures IFR in 10 year cohorts and when you move to the older cohort, the IFR approximately quintuples.
The IFR in the 60-69 cohort was ~0.5%, so yeah it would skyrocket to 2.5% in the 70-79 group. Of course, the point is moot since the current variant is far less virulent than alpha and because it's so transmissible, the rate of natural immunity is high.
I always thought the IFR was low since we had the example of the Diamond Princess cruise ship with 3700 people, where several super old passengers died, but none of the crew.