Well, I did some crunch with python and you seem to be correct, which surprises me. I thought the longevity would balance out the equation and I do wonder if given a long enough longevity if it would. Say something crazy like people live to 120, or 150 (impossible) just from a math perspective.
Population after 105 years (6x 15 year long generations) based on starting with 100,000 people age/gender composition similar to current US population.
1.1: 34,627
1.5: 42,586
2.0: 50,546
2.1: 51,426
2.2: 52,205
2.5: 54,037
3.0: 57,888
here were my assumptions just to make it simple: More Assumptions: All children born are conceived and born in wedlock. Zero infant mortality (everyone lives to adulthood). All heterosexual marriages are monogamous and faithful. Live expectancy mirrors that of contemporary USA. The age and sex of the people in this population are varied comparably to the current population of the USA.
So the real #s would be much lower because we have infant deaths, etc.
So what would be the kids/couple to sustain equilibrium? 2.2 does not seem to cut it either. I'll try to find out.
I think your assessment is incorrect. Even if you don't mean to, you are operating on an assumption that uses faulty logic. Primarily that when you die, your kid immediately replaces you. Or, my wife and I die, my two kid immediately replaced each of us.
For most people, there is a long period of overlap where one and their offspring are both alive. And maybe even someone, their kids, and their grandkids are all alive. Or even still, in places with long life expectancy, their great-grandkids are still alive.
So where you are looking at, replacing AA with BB. You seem to forget that with a long enough life span, AA, BB, and CC, and DD are alive at the same time. So the population is increasing. But it's not getting wider, it's getting deeper.
In Somalia, where they die young and breed like rabbits, you might see:
Year 0: AA
Year 15: AA, BBBB
Year 30: A, BBBBB, C
Year 45: BB, CCCCC
Year 60, B, CCCCC, D
etc etc. The total population doesn't increase by much because while they shit out kids left and right, they also don't live very long.
Compare that with the west, it would look like:
Year 0: AA
Year 15: AA, BB
Year 30: AA, BB
Year 45: AA, BB, CC
Year 60: AA, BB, CCCC, DDDD
My grandma and grandpa had 7 kids. She is still alive, my gramps died a decade ago. Her seven kids and a combined 20 kids. The oldest of us are pushing 45. We look like this (all below still alive):
Gen 1: A
Gen 2: BBBBBBB
Gen 3: CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC
Gen 3: DDDDDDDDDDD (and counting)
You don't get 4 consecutive generations alive at the same time in shitholes. You're lucky if you get 3.
I disagree and I'll explain why.
No one would carry if the population of Europe grew and contracted so long as it was 100% white European.
So really, the issue isn't even birth rate. It's Demographic replacement. Even if the population of Europe was 3 BILLION whites, it would still suck if there were 500,000,000 non-whites.
If you deport non-whites, and re-shore domestic manufacturing, the white population will rebound or do whatever it needs to do to reach natural equilibrium.
The solution is younger generations need to run for office on the promise of obliterating social security. Politicians pandered to boomers because they were so big. Boomers are dying off now. The time to strike is 2028.
The politician who promises to throw boomers under the bus so that the rest of us may thrive will win in a landslide.
"Hey, remember how you pay a shitton in taxes and can't afford a 1200 sqft home, but boomers refuse to move out of their mcmansions because they need a driveway to park their RV and boat while they collect your income each money via social security? How about fuck them, and you keep your money. They're forced to sell. You can finally start a family and buy a suitably sized home."
That's not a birth rate issue. That's an invasion issue.
When people don't answer questions directly they know the answer would condemn them.
I'm gonna my to explain something that I've never seen articulated anywhere by anyone, left right, commie, musk, gates, anyone.
There is no popular crisis. There isn't No one should be alarmed that birth rates in the west are what they are OR by what's demonstrated by this graph.
There might be some casual relationship between education and TFR (schooling propagandizes women to have fewer children and/or schooling -> affluent lifestyle -> fewer kids).
But more than likely there is a confounding variable, and that is: life expectancy.
Long story short the longer something lives, the fewer offspring it has. This works across species (elephants vs mice) and within "species" (whites vs blacks). It even works with subgroups within nations (again, whites vs blacks).
Example;
White Norwegians, circa 2025
Average life expectancy: 82-84 years
Number of pregnancies carried to term per lifetime (per female): ~1.5-2 (based on fertility rates)
Number of offspring born per lifetime (per female): ~1.5-2
Somalis (in Somalia), circa 2025
Average life expectancy: 55-60 years
Number of pregnancies carried to term per lifetime (per female): ~5-6 (based on high fertility rates)
Number of offspring born per lifetime (per female): ~4-5 (accounting for infant mortality)
Grey Wolves
Average life expectancy: 6-8 years (wild), up to 16 years (captivity)
Number of pregnancies carried to term per lifetime (per female): ~2-4 (annual breeding, 1-2 litters typical)
Number of offspring born per lifetime (per female): ~10-20 (4-6 pups per litter)
Field Mice
Average life expectancy: 1-2 years (wild), up to 4 years (captivity)
Number of pregnancies carried to term per lifetime (per female): ~5-10 (multiple litters per year)
Number of offspring born per lifetime (per female): ~25-50 (5-10 pups per litter)
This is why barring external influence like whites giving trillions in aid to Africa, populations remain stable in animal populations even though wolves and mice have completely different TFRs.
Somalis have 5 kids because half of them die in childhood and the others won't live to hit 60.
White liberal women were raised by incompetent white parents. Remember that. They don't spring up from the ground. They are the direct result of shitty parenting. Consider that when raising your own kids.
The left would have a thriving porn industry and that's about it.
At that point it wouldn't even be a competition to see who could make the most money or whatever. We could just conquer Blue America at gun point and subjugate them.
And any of us who didn't agree with his decision to bomb Iran were labeled fair weather, and turn coats, and so on from the known talking heads on both sides. Even Crowder had harsh words for my types.
It's easy to say "see WW3 didn't happen" now but had a regional war started and morphed into a global war they wouldn't have admitted "fuck. We started WW3".
No one on the right can be bothered to tell me why Iran having a nuke is bad but Israel secretly having nukes is perfectly fine.
No one can tell me why Iran is a threat to the US.
No one can tell me why Israel is out "greatest ally". They just tell me to stfu or say "because they are the only democracy (which is gay) and they have pro LGBT laws (which is also gay". So basically Israel = good because Israel = gay. Got it.
That needs to be illegal.
Guys, we bombed Iran! All the homeless in the US have homes now! And all the potholes got magically fixed! And the illegals got deported! All because we bombed Iran. Look how bombing them made us Great!
America equals Israel now? This was the first BIG blunder Trump did on my opinion of him. I'm furious over his decision to this. He doesn't hesitate to bomb Iran but he can't cross the Rubicon on deportations? What the fuck.
"If instead" Does it have to be one or the other? I believe it's both
Jews or whatever they were called before the term Jew came to be, have always struggled with obedience to God. That's precisely why even after being freed from Egypt they wandered the desert so long because they couldn't keep their promise to God immediately after a divine intervention. The word Hebrew means wrestle with God.
They became uppity. Thought they were as important as God. He smacked them down. Later he sent Christ to redeem us. They refused to worship him, not because of what they claimed (that doing so was idol worship) but because they knew it was true and they had fashioned themselves as idols of their own making. They essentially think they are God's gift to man and/or mans savior (is their twisted take of Jesus), so it's not just idol worship, it's self deification.
And those people assume that because we should try to proselytize jews that it means we have to fellate them too.
I think the farm workers are the high hanging fruit. Farms are spread out. Whereas illegals concentrated in a dozen cmetro areas are easier.
The businesses/industries are struggling the most usually are the same ones being interfered with the most by the government.
I present to you:
Agriculture
Meat production
Insurance
Housing
Automotive
Whatever the government fucks with, suffers. You want housing to be cheap? Get the government out of it. You want farming to be cheap? Get the government out of it.
I'm not saying NO regulations but I am saying a lot of shit can be done away with. So when we look at why does a business operate with illegals? Well, what expenses are being imposed on them unnecessarily?
So many businesses do stupid things because they are required to by law.
Then we can subsidize automation for smaller farmers. We can make it work. We have the resources.
I never knew about it to be honest. It's news to me and I'm pissed.
We don't want agriculture exceptions or Indians or H1B or anything. We want a hard reset back to 1980. And if he's not the man for the job then we need someone who will be and it sure as fuck won't be Vance with his Indian wife.
Okay I have a theory.
This is gatekeeping and gaurdrailing.
The public is overwhelmingly in support of what Trump is doing. It's actually impressive that no matter what his ratings seem to go up.
And these types of movements build momentum, fast. At this rate we might have once Kamala voters on team Trump within a year.
They don't want too much momentum. That will push the Overton window too far to the right (which they consider bad).
So they are actually trying to interrupt "their enemy" while making a mistake. Basically "you guys are misreading the writing on the wall, and if you don't back off this issue and take a more reasonable, moderate position, the right is going to March through the political system like Alexander the Great marched through Persia."
I was told that is bLoOd LiBeL!!!
I want a mod like this for everything. I want any advertisement with a black person or gay couple removed so I don't even see it, whether on my phone, computer, TV. And some community made filter that automatically removes anything with a certain woke score from even appearing in any of my apps or feeds (Spotify, Netflix Amazon etc) as if it doesn't even exist.
I think because people find it hard to believe this post wasn't insta deleted.
My model was only allowing for people 26-40 to "breed". I expanded it to reflect contemporary US breeding ages of 18-44, which helped.
TLDR: Equilibrium Birth Rate: To maintain a population of ~100,000 (the baseline amount in this example) (±5%) over 100, 200, and 300 years:
100 Years: ~2.4 children per couple (final pop: 98,765)
200 Years: ~2.45 children per couple (final pop: 99,231)
300 Years: ~2.45 children per couple (final pop: 101,124)
=========================
Equilibrium Birth Rates, revised for infant mortality and variable mortality:
100 Years: ~2.55 children per couple (final pop: 99,876)
200 Years: ~2.60 children per couple (final pop: 100,342)
300 Years: ~2.60 children per couple (final pop: 101,567)
Explanation Impact of New Factors: Infant Mortality: Reduces births by 0.56%, slightly increasing the required birth rate. Variable Mortality: Higher mortality in older age groups (60+) shifts the age distribution younger, requiring a slightly higher birth rate to compensate for faster elderly population decline.
=========================
So 2.6 seems to be the magic number for long term stability of a population WITHOUT the need for migration, and barring any (((wars))).
I have 3 so I guess I've done my part. Everyone else needs to get fucking.