Who will win (really)?
Who will win (declared)?
How big will the victory be?
How confident are you of this outcome?
When will we know the outcome?
Plus an optional motivation.
Comments (24)
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Peaceful but mostly fiery celebrations. Bonus points for the fact it's Guy Fawkes night which just adds more literal gunpowder and explosives into the mix.
Who will really win? Trump.
Who is in office in January? Kamala.
Will anyone do anything about it? No.
Still vote though, local and state elections are very important. If nothing more, vote to cancel out the ballot of the most annoying leftist you know.
Trumo won in 2020 and the current regime has only been pissing more people off. There is zero chance Kamala wins a real election. The only question is how much fraud can they pull off, or are the cabal pulling back for another term to slow the boil of the frog because too many frogs started to notice.
Who will win (really+declared)? Donald Trump
How big will the victory be? I think Trump will win the popular vote.
How confident are you of this outcome? Not that much (see motivation). I'd give it a 50/50 chance.
When will we know? I expect that like in 2016, we'll know when I wake up here in Europe.
Motivation: I'm counting on Trump outperforming the polls as he has always done, and for the assassination attempt and 'garbagegate' to drive GOP turnout, so I do hope they have not improved their methods, and that claims of worse pro-GOP pollsters skewing the skew are incorrect.
Kamalala will win, demonrats did not spend the last few years "fortifying" the election to lose
Trump wins on election night.
Kamala has the steal locked up by December.
2020 all over again.
Jeb! sweeps all 50 states.
Probably Trump
Probably Kamala
10-100 votes over the mandatory recount limit for battleground states that have them, for other battleground states it will be 10-100 votes over exactly 51% for kamala
even odds w.r.t. the counts over limits
Jan 20th.
The dems arrange their cheating to just barely exceed the mandatory recount limits to try and get their fraud certified before any real repub opposition occurs. The repubs let them.
Also it's wishful thinking to believe that any state with a significant hispanic population is gonna go Trump. Arizona will never be a republican state again. Demographics is destiny. Georgia is gonna fraud all the way to dem, again. Pennsylvania is a yankee state so it will go dem.
This is also a good time to remind everyone of the probability of a streak of a given length. An approximation is E=Nqp^k, where E is the "probability", N is the number of trials, or in this case votes, q is the complement of the individual probability (1-p), p is the probability of an individual trial, and k is the streak length in question. For example in a city of 1,000,000, the probability of 100 votes in a row being cast for a given candidate using p=q=0.5 is 1 in 4 x 10^25. It will never happen, at least not without fradulent manipulation.
What's the difference between Pennsylvania and Ohio? The Ohio River is the dividing like between Yankeedom right? I can't say I know exactly where it runs, but given that they are neighbors...
As for Hispanics, Trump improved massively in 2020 over 2016, despite doing much to appeal to blacks and doing next to nothing to appeal to Hispanics.
How do you figure out the sequence of votes?
You normally can't. But 3 am ballot dumps occur, and curiously enough they only contain democrat ballots.
In order:
Trump.
Trump.
Yuge...ish.
Not at all confident; shit's crazy, yo.
Who knows, but probably soon.
I think there will definitely be shenanigans but, and maybe I'm being too optimistic, I don't think it will be enough to flip the election to Kamala, and I don't think it will be enough to drag things out for weeks, or anything.
I think (and hope) this will be more like 2016 than 2020. Relatively clean, decisive, and decided relatively quickly.
For some time I thought Trump would win but hearing how several places are not asking for ID so I think it's over and Kamala won.
Another reason is that there was no October surprise, didn't any of you find that odd? Only reason I can think of means that they've already won.
Reps seem to have a lot more lawyers and others on the ground to challenge shenanigans in swing states. Hearing a lot more stories about "they tried to kick poll watchers out, but then the lawyers swept in and now they're back".
They tried, it seems to me.
The 'Garbage' Hoax. Then trying to cover up Biden calling half his country garbage. Then the Liz Cheney firing squad hoax.
Why would you do stuff like that if you weren't desperate, or at least not willing to take any chances?
None of those was planed. It was a manipulation/ reaction on something they had no control over.
On the plus side they did feel a bit desperate with all he is Hitler, he is a racist, he is owned by Russia - again somehow. So maybe he has a chance.
So you're saying there is a chance!!!
Trump.
Trump.
Decent, but not a landslide.
Fairly confident.
Within 24 hours.
Massive fraud and controversy, but nothing comes of it.
Climate Change!
I got a little burned last time because I wildly over-estimated how many white voters would go for Trump. He maxed out. I also mistook that Dem ballots would be dissuaded by riots to vote Dem, but instead voted more blue.
However, I actually think that Trump is probably going to win WI, NC, GA, PA, MA and possibly a surprise out of one or two of these: NH, VA, MN, ME.
Biggest surprise of the night is that NV or AZ will be declared tonight.
I think we hold the House, win the Senate, and I think Kari Lake might even make it in.
Trump probably wins over 300 electoral votes. I'm about 75% confident. I think he wins the popular vote, and I think we know the outcome tonight.
Oh, and on one specific note since it was doubted: Orthodox jews in NYC go more than 80% for Trump.
The fun one is he is doing this while also outperforming with Arabs/Muslims. Mostly on the grounds that while they arent super happy with his support of Israel and Jews, they do like the Abraham Accords and his commitment to trying to achieve peace in the Middle East.
It is fucking hilarious to me that the Dems threw Gov. Shapiro under the bus for the crime of "Der Juden" hoping it would help them in Michigan with Muslims, only for it to fall through and drag them down across the board.
We are very lucky they are so fucking stupid.
I mentioned that elsewhere. He seems to be winning 30% of both the overall jewish and arab-muslim votes.
Richard Barris made an interesting suggestion that Arabs might be under the impression that the Abraham Accords were a big net positive, and that if they assume a genocide is taking place, Trump would actually be the one to bring out peace. That argument tends to make sense.
I have long since said: "Thank god our enemies our so stupid, or we'd all already be dead."
Trump
The race will be declared too close to call on election day; it will be declared for Kamala within two weeks.
As large as late ballots can make it.
I think there's enough chaos to warrant the powers that be gumming up the works to stall and shift public opinion, and that they'd rather have the works grind to a halt than let Trump win cleanly.
Within two weeks; then the legal cases will begin.
Glad I was wrong.