Who will win (really)?
Who will win (declared)?
How big will the victory be?
How confident are you of this outcome?
When will we know the outcome?
Plus an optional motivation.
Who will win (really)?
Who will win (declared)?
How big will the victory be?
How confident are you of this outcome?
When will we know the outcome?
Plus an optional motivation.
Who will win (really+declared)? Donald Trump
How big will the victory be? I think Trump will win the popular vote.
How confident are you of this outcome? Not that much (see motivation). I'd give it a 50/50 chance.
When will we know? I expect that like in 2016, we'll know when I wake up here in Europe.
Motivation: I'm counting on Trump outperforming the polls as he has always done, and for the assassination attempt and 'garbagegate' to drive GOP turnout, so I do hope they have not improved their methods, and that claims of worse pro-GOP pollsters skewing the skew are incorrect.