Who will win (really)?
Who will win (declared)?
How big will the victory be?
How confident are you of this outcome?
When will we know the outcome?
Plus an optional motivation.
You're viewing a single comment thread. View all comments, or full comment thread.
Comments (24)
sorted by:
I got a little burned last time because I wildly over-estimated how many white voters would go for Trump. He maxed out. I also mistook that Dem ballots would be dissuaded by riots to vote Dem, but instead voted more blue.
However, I actually think that Trump is probably going to win WI, NC, GA, PA, MA and possibly a surprise out of one or two of these: NH, VA, MN, ME.
Biggest surprise of the night is that NV or AZ will be declared tonight.
I think we hold the House, win the Senate, and I think Kari Lake might even make it in.
Trump probably wins over 300 electoral votes. I'm about 75% confident. I think he wins the popular vote, and I think we know the outcome tonight.
Oh, and on one specific note since it was doubted: Orthodox jews in NYC go more than 80% for Trump.
The fun one is he is doing this while also outperforming with Arabs/Muslims. Mostly on the grounds that while they arent super happy with his support of Israel and Jews, they do like the Abraham Accords and his commitment to trying to achieve peace in the Middle East.
It is fucking hilarious to me that the Dems threw Gov. Shapiro under the bus for the crime of "Der Juden" hoping it would help them in Michigan with Muslims, only for it to fall through and drag them down across the board.
We are very lucky they are so fucking stupid.
I mentioned that elsewhere. He seems to be winning 30% of both the overall jewish and arab-muslim votes.
Richard Barris made an interesting suggestion that Arabs might be under the impression that the Abraham Accords were a big net positive, and that if they assume a genocide is taking place, Trump would actually be the one to bring out peace. That argument tends to make sense.
I have long since said: "Thank god our enemies our so stupid, or we'd all already be dead."