This shit is scary. People don't know what's going to hit them.
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Lots of people are going to be out of a job in the not-so distant future.
If there's any hope, it's that these companies will also have no one to sell their products to since AI doesn't need/care for what they're producing, so we'll all be stuck at an impasse.
I think AI/Robotics will eventually be the new slaves, but not for us. The world's elite won't need 95% of the population, so they'll militarize AI and use it against us.
The future is going to be scary.
No, they aren't. I work with copious robotics and they're dumber than shit. Purely digital products are a lot easier for a machine.
I'm not talking about quality. I'm talking about work stoppages because robots aren't reliable without humans running and maintaining them. Training positional motors alone is a full time job.
Robots are not as advanced as you think they are, full stop.
People pay $75 because that's how much money they have left after being captured by debt based systems, and because $500 is harder for them to get to because saving money is explicitly disincentivized.
Boomers, who adopted the Keynsian system that did this to them, have been complaining almost their entire lives that that "they just don't build them like they used to", and that's true because if you want the equivalent of a $300 vacuum cleaner in 1975, you'd be paying $2,000 for it now.
I know a team that can literally solve this problem. They are currently working on other things, but they exist as a team working in the robotics field.
There is an intermediary step which can turn robotics applications into a purely software product. Once you can do that, you can close the loop and have AI write then test robotics applications. After that it is just a matter of clever neural networks and iteration.
You are going to have to break down robotics operations into smaller, more specific parts for the AI to do; but this has been a concept in software engineering since day 1. The above post just did that with micro-services for his app.
This technology will give a workshop worth 1/2 a million dollars access to the same economies of scale as a million dollar production line. The workshop will be able to apply those manufacturing force multipliers to a hundred products, not one single product rolling off the million dollar production line.
If it plays out the way I imagine, it will be a manufacturing revolution which will shift productivity and the gains of that value down the food chain from billionaires to millionaires. Twelve motivated twenty year olds could design and launch a product that has hardware literally better than the flagship iPhone. They could manufacture hundreds of units for the same unit prices that apple is manufacturing tens of thousands. We could see a market place with a thousand models of flagship phones.
Okay, and what is it?
They weren't when industrialisation came around. Artisans are practically wiped out bar a niche services. The past 100 years saw to that. Most tradesmen are a hollow of what they once represented.
My point is that they're not safe because industrialisation has already come for them. AI tech is just the latest step in industrialisation that has now come for cushy white collar jobs.
The underlying point was that virtually nobody gave a shit over the past 100 years outside small little blips that saved nothing. We were not only okay with it, we were eager to slash these jobs, but now it's an issue because it's effecting white collar workers that are overwhelmingly liberal.
Sorry, I'm not buying the outrage that this is only an issue now. It's been an issue for longer than anyone discussing it has been alive and virtually none of them gave a shit about it until it came for them.
Frankly, this shouldn't be "the line". The line should have either been drawn loooong ago back in the mid 1800s or not at all. And we're a long way away from the 1800s.
Tradesmen adapted. Maybe it's time white collar "workers" showed their skill and adapt too. Some already are, but most are bitching because their little skill barrier got taken down a few pegs.
I'm sorry, but the attitude of "machines will replace us" is contrary to all economics.
Technology is a deflationary pressure on the economy and a capital investment. It does not eradicate people from having jobs, it streamlines work and makes it more efficient so that while fewer people are needed for a particular niche, it does not mean that the entire industry dies, or that it isn't possible for those people to have gainful employment, nor does it mean that the economy can exist without people.
Years of experience is still plenty valuable, and will be able to take advantage of this capital investment. They aren't just going to burst into flames.
On one hand I agree with every point.
On the other hand, entire industries will go the way of the dodo, just like the watchmaker and buggy-whip manufacturer.
People who are skilled with tools or (gasp) design will have transferable skills can easily retrain, but not all of them.
For example the advent of synchronous, variable torque, variable speed eclectic motors has turned electric motor manufacture from something involving a hundred dollars of bent bits of iron and copper to sixty dollars of electronics and forty dollars of iron and copper. Before it was all mechanical processes and a hundred year old designs. Now it is an electronic manufacturer who also does a little bit of coil winding.
You are literally watching the electrical motor industry vanish.
You're conflating an auxiliary industry with the primary industry.
Buggy whips died, transportation transformed.
Unless someone or something invents a mechanism by which electricity may be transformed into kinetic energy without a physical device which moves, this won't happen.
Your comparison to watch making is terrible, but your analogy was better served by "buggy-whip", even though it's also wrong.
Watchmaking is a significant industry to this very day, at both luxury and common ends. There are probably more watches today than in human history. As for buggy-whips, you're looking at it purely from a abstract category. The business that makes buggy-whips, stops making buggy-whips if it's not lucrative, and makes... whips. Or, it re-tools to exploit it's component parts: it becomes a leather strap factory, or it becomes a stick factory, or it re-tools into some other part of the equestrian industry.
And you think that not one person who worked in building electric motors would get a job in maintaining electric motors? You don't think that the skillsets in electrical motor design wouldn't still be useful? You don't think the knowledge of electronics could still allow them to have gainful employment? Hell: you don't think the basis of managing a department couldn't be transferred to another industry not specializing in electric motors?
The point is that the labor doesn't just fucking die. That is a socialist perspective of reality: in order to keep "jobs" at a maximum, innovation (as a deflationary pressure) must be kept at a minimum. All that does is guarantee that the whole industry that adopts this becomes totally non-competitive and fucking dies. Like steel in Cleveland, rubber in Akron, or Coal in Wales: the rejection of deflationary innovation is what causes an irreparable collapse; the pressure itself is not a threat. It is not that there is "no need for steel, rubber, or coal". It's because those places became protectionist hives that refused to innovate, and when they were finally forced to compete on a freer market, they still weren't de-regulated enough to adapt, and just fucking out-and-out died.
Socialism and Protectionism did more permanent damage to local industry in America than the firebombing of 85% of the country did to Japan's industries.
Consider what happened after the industrial revolution.
Did populations drop because human workers were made redundant?
No, the population exploded alongside productivity.
We're simply wasting less time doing mindless work (AIs are simply brute force problem solvers, after all).
We're not wasting less time because of the industrial revolution (frankly we're wasting more of it thanks to malinvestment via socialist policies). The fact that the labor force participation rate is as low as it was in the 1960's kind of tells us how badly malinvested society is. Instead, we're just spending less time farming. Prior to the industrial revolution: 85% of all workers would have been farming.
"Technology can only be used by the elites. Computers are magic boxes, and the elites are wizards."
AI is merely a pattern association software. The only thing the elites are doing is selling you some garbage about how it's totes skynet and demoralizing you.
If anything, AI, like drones, is a weapon. And it's a weapon that can be wielded by anyone.
Cars replaced horses, there are no more horses because everyone uses cars now.
There's a massive hydroponics facility in Sweden called "Ljusgårda" (light farm), They could use robots but it is still too expensive so they pay illegals to do it instead.
I have tried their produce and the quality is out of this world due to the way they can optimize the light levels and nutrition in the hydroponics. They also do not require the use of pesticides.
There are a lot of good advantages of indoor farming techniques if we want to eat food without pesticides and chemicals from contaminated soil. What I am trying to say is that we shouldn't shun technology when our soil and nutrition is being depleted from our food.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4yGKB1IvE4
"Never" is a strong word to use about technology that's changing so rapidly
Technology isn't changing that rapidly. It's a huge shell game at this point. For example we reached peak data transmission speed a while ago, the remaining innovation in "speed" has been miniaturization and threading instead. Hence why the previous exponential growth and improvement of tech has slowed down to incremental and dubious improvement now.
A tech dark age is much more likely.
Don't you threaten me with a good time.
Especially as it assumes both our needs and availability of land will continue unchanged.
How much farmland does Bill Gates' Book Club need to won before "never" becomes "tomorrow"?
Basically the entire USA. Time to abandon ship.
I remember watching this when I was younger and taking psychedelics.
Huge mistake, I still get depressed thinking about it, and I think we're a lot closer to it today than I thought we would ever be.
https://youtu.be/sU8RunvBRZ8
(Part 2) (Part 3) (Part 4)
If AI is truly smart, it will ultimately see us as useless and we should be "grateful" that it lets us continue to live amongst it. But we will have to surrender our freedoms to it and eventually be enslaved to it.
Our best bet is to collectively decide to stop progressing further technologically, but that also poses its own problems because the Earth (and eventually, even our own galaxy) isn't going to be habitable forever.
Oh, and I noticed this in your video.
Proving my point that AI taking over would actually be pretty great.
Oh, the Matrix troon-hebes.
Who might have guessed, aside from everyone?
They rewrote their names as to not 'deadname' them. How pathetic.
AI is not truly smart, and it never will be.
AI does not have consciousness, and it will never have it.
And this is unfortunate, because I'd very much like for our degenerate species to be replaced by something far better and less smelly.
The greatest danger in AI is its use by the ruling class to further suppress the population, not actually taking over.
Like time travel, sentient AI is a fun narrative device, but impossible in reality.
Humanity is a chaos engine that creates order from spontanaeity. No AI will ever be capable of this.
The worst-case scenario is we replace our current child-raping ruling class with one that lacks the desire to molest.
One dark path that could eventually get us to "conscious" AI is the Elon Musk Neuralink approach of merging our minds with the machines. Depending on how far we take it, we could either become supermen who can move shit with our minds, or The Borg. One day we'll be sending our thoughts to the machine, then the next surprised to find it sending thoughts back to us. We might even start bioengineering new lifeforms that are naturally conducive to integrating with computational machinery. Or machines with biological nervous systems.
It's all a mockery of creation, but might lead to the species being replaced with something arguably better and less smelly.
The part 3 link leads to part 4.
I was wondering why shit went 0-100 instantly.
Sorry, here's the link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlRMLZRBq6U
For anyone who hasn't seen it yet I assume he meant to link to this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlRMLZRBq6U
Butlerian Jihad when?
Or when the guy's product hits one of the AI's ideological tripwires and it refuses to produce code for him - and all of the other devs went out of business, so how fucked are you now, sunshine ... ?