Yes I am aware that there is definitely a trend of Texas growing more left from 2008-2020 thanks to the influx of tech companies and their woke employees in the Austin and Dallas suburbs.
However right now in the current political environment, Hispanics in the Rio Grande Valley are swinging right and thankfully Biden is absolutely hated in Texas by independents and Republicans.
Abbott will certainly win this year by a 10+pt margin.
2026 is the next governor election and the Democrats don't currently have a bench in Texas. Will they run Beto again?
Based on the current trends it looks like the earliest Texas may ever go blue is in 2030 or later.
If the evil of Blue Texas ever comes to pass I will be moving to Florida which is overall politically trending to the right thanks to DeSantis.
All the data shows that aint happening. If anything, its moving to the right. There was a mild downward trend in 2016, but 2020 moved more to the right, and recent elections have been moving significantly to the right. And there has been data now showing that the newcomers to the state are more likely to be Republican than the natives.
That’s a good analysis. I have seen some models predict sooner but the Hispanic shift threw that data for a loop. Problem is the major metro areas. I live in DFW (in HEB close to Ft Worth) and even the Ft Worth side is purple. I’m told DFW was once solid red.
The only thing that would shift my current analysis is if unexpected results happen in the future Texas Presidential election trends.
In 2024 I assume that the GOP candidate will win Texas by a larger margin than in 2020 due to suburban reversion. COVID reduced Trump's college white men support in the burbs.
If in 2024 the GOP candidate somehow wins by a smaller margin than in 2020(less than 5 points) than I would get a little worried for the Texas 2026 gubernatorial race.
The size of the margin in the 2028 Texas Presidential race will respectively indicate the risk of Blue Texas in 2030.
So far I think we will be atleast be fine till 2030 but 2024 and 2028 presidential elections will show us how fast these trends are progressing.
This is arguably the most disgusting attempt to politicize a tragedy for personal gain by the Democrats in a while.
I cannot wait until November to vote against Beto and see him lose for the third time.
All Abbott needs to do is play Beto's "Hell yeah we're coming for your guns" outburst over and over. He said the quiet part out loud.
Yes I am aware that there is definitely a trend of Texas growing more left from 2008-2020 thanks to the influx of tech companies and their woke employees in the Austin and Dallas suburbs.
However right now in the current political environment, Hispanics in the Rio Grande Valley are swinging right and thankfully Biden is absolutely hated in Texas by independents and Republicans.
Abbott will certainly win this year by a 10+pt margin.
2026 is the next governor election and the Democrats don't currently have a bench in Texas. Will they run Beto again?
Based on the current trends it looks like the earliest Texas may ever go blue is in 2030 or later.
If the evil of Blue Texas ever comes to pass I will be moving to Florida which is overall politically trending to the right thanks to DeSantis.
All the data shows that aint happening. If anything, its moving to the right. There was a mild downward trend in 2016, but 2020 moved more to the right, and recent elections have been moving significantly to the right. And there has been data now showing that the newcomers to the state are more likely to be Republican than the natives.
You really think Texas will turn blue? I fear that but with Hispanics going red that gives me hope
I think the Hispanic shift to the right in the Rio Grande Valley keeps the state red till 2030 at least.
2022 will likely be a strong 10 pt+ Abbott victory.
The Dems don't currently have a bench for Texas governor in 2026. Will they run Beto again?
I think 2030 would likely be the first year to be really concerned about Blue Texas.
That’s a good analysis. I have seen some models predict sooner but the Hispanic shift threw that data for a loop. Problem is the major metro areas. I live in DFW (in HEB close to Ft Worth) and even the Ft Worth side is purple. I’m told DFW was once solid red.
The only thing that would shift my current analysis is if unexpected results happen in the future Texas Presidential election trends.
In 2024 I assume that the GOP candidate will win Texas by a larger margin than in 2020 due to suburban reversion. COVID reduced Trump's college white men support in the burbs.
If in 2024 the GOP candidate somehow wins by a smaller margin than in 2020(less than 5 points) than I would get a little worried for the Texas 2026 gubernatorial race.
The size of the margin in the 2028 Texas Presidential race will respectively indicate the risk of Blue Texas in 2030.
So far I think we will be atleast be fine till 2030 but 2024 and 2028 presidential elections will show us how fast these trends are progressing.
They definitely did in 2020. A big shift in south TX
The moment Hispanic votes start being a threat, the Dems will suddenly care about their flagrant abuse of identity theft and deny them voting ability.
At that point it won't matter where you move. Without Texas, its mathematically impossible for the GOP to win the national election.
Sadly that means voting for Abbott again.
I forgot you are now a fellow Texan
More than: "It must have been self-defense" in response to Waukesha?
MISLEADING TITLE: His name isn't "Beto", it's Robert Francis O'Rourke. He's not hispanic, he's white as fuck.
He identifies as Hispanic, you bigot!
Leftists oppose gun ownership because they intend to do things that will force you to shoot them.
I love how conservative politicians are finally growing a spine and calling out these gun grabbing pedos for what they are.
The shooting happened in a gun free zone, by someone who should not have passed a background check to get a gun. I'm sure more gun laws are to blame.
Babbling, psychotic socialist engages in psychotic socialist babbling.
I’ll have the pleasure of voting for Abbott as a vote against Beto.
Amen brother.
Take him out back and make him bury his own grave
Let R. Lee Ermey handle this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzwcOp5ne6o
I miss that man and I miss Texas.
Beta sitting there asking himself how he can lose even harder than he did last time. Congratulations, dumbass, theres your answer.
Betos anti gun this week?