The only thing that would shift my current analysis is if unexpected results happen in the future Texas Presidential election trends.
In 2024 I assume that the GOP candidate will win Texas by a larger margin than in 2020 due to suburban reversion. COVID reduced Trump's college white men support in the burbs.
If in 2024 the GOP candidate somehow wins by a smaller margin than in 2020(less than 5 points) than I would get a little worried for the Texas 2026 gubernatorial race.
The size of the margin in the 2028 Texas Presidential race will respectively indicate the risk of Blue Texas in 2030.
So far I think we will be atleast be fine till 2030 but 2024 and 2028 presidential elections will show us how fast these trends are progressing.
The only thing that would shift my current analysis is if unexpected results happen in the future Texas Presidential election trends.
In 2024 I assume that the GOP candidate will win Texas by a larger margin than in 2020 due to suburban reversion. COVID reduced Trump's college white men support in the burbs.
If in 2024 the GOP candidate somehow wins by a smaller margin than in 2020(less than 5 points) than I would get a little worried for the Texas 2026 gubernatorial race.
The size of the margin in the 2028 Texas Presidential race will respectively indicate the risk of Blue Texas in 2030.
So far I think we will be atleast be fine till 2030 but 2024 and 2028 presidential elections will show us how fast these trends are progressing.