That’s a good analysis. I have seen some models predict sooner but the Hispanic shift threw that data for a loop. Problem is the major metro areas. I live in DFW (in HEB close to Ft Worth) and even the Ft Worth side is purple. I’m told DFW was once solid red.
The only thing that would shift my current analysis is if unexpected results happen in the future Texas Presidential election trends.
In 2024 I assume that the GOP candidate will win Texas by a larger margin than in 2020 due to suburban reversion. COVID reduced Trump's college white men support in the burbs.
If in 2024 the GOP candidate somehow wins by a smaller margin than in 2020(less than 5 points) than I would get a little worried for the Texas 2026 gubernatorial race.
The size of the margin in the 2028 Texas Presidential race will respectively indicate the risk of Blue Texas in 2030.
So far I think we will be atleast be fine till 2030 but 2024 and 2028 presidential elections will show us how fast these trends are progressing.
You really think Texas will turn blue? I fear that but with Hispanics going red that gives me hope
I think the Hispanic shift to the right in the Rio Grande Valley keeps the state red till 2030 at least.
2022 will likely be a strong 10 pt+ Abbott victory.
The Dems don't currently have a bench for Texas governor in 2026. Will they run Beto again?
I think 2030 would likely be the first year to be really concerned about Blue Texas.
That’s a good analysis. I have seen some models predict sooner but the Hispanic shift threw that data for a loop. Problem is the major metro areas. I live in DFW (in HEB close to Ft Worth) and even the Ft Worth side is purple. I’m told DFW was once solid red.
The only thing that would shift my current analysis is if unexpected results happen in the future Texas Presidential election trends.
In 2024 I assume that the GOP candidate will win Texas by a larger margin than in 2020 due to suburban reversion. COVID reduced Trump's college white men support in the burbs.
If in 2024 the GOP candidate somehow wins by a smaller margin than in 2020(less than 5 points) than I would get a little worried for the Texas 2026 gubernatorial race.
The size of the margin in the 2028 Texas Presidential race will respectively indicate the risk of Blue Texas in 2030.
So far I think we will be atleast be fine till 2030 but 2024 and 2028 presidential elections will show us how fast these trends are progressing.
They definitely did in 2020. A big shift in south TX
The moment Hispanic votes start being a threat, the Dems will suddenly care about their flagrant abuse of identity theft and deny them voting ability.