Yea, AFAIK the problem is that manufacturers don't want to increase production. It's expensive, takes years to build new factories and last time they did it prices crashed and they got stuck holding the bag. So they'd rather ride the current high.
Our only "hope" is that the AI bubble pops. The fact that this is a real possibility is another reason why manufacturers don't want to invest in more factories.
Once it stops being subsidized, and prices go up 30-50%, there will definitely be a correction. It's also a race to the bottom - frontier models will continue to improve but "good enough" has already been hit, and at that point companies will need to compete on price, and they can't go too much lower in pricing without losing money.
That said they ARE building new fabs, that shit just takes years.
It’s also largely good enough now that you can do coding (which is a big driver of usage) on a local model. It’s slower, but so what. Give it a prompt and go make a cup of coffee, vs give it a prompt and instantly get your code. Still faster than doing it yourself.
This guy codes, and as soon as I can run a decent model with 8 gpu (the max a commercial motherboard can take), I am 100% getting some uncensored model and using it for my main LLM, MAYBE with the occasion claude request ($20 per month) for ultra-complex stuff). Bye bye chatgpt and gemini, I wont miss you.
I haven’t played with open router yet but apparently that’s the killer feature: use a local model most of the time, automatically switch to a paid one when needed.
The main issue is growing silicon crystal. It basically takes 10 years to be profitable. Chinese companies are trying to make it, and should get a 30-40% "yield" by... 2030.
They're trying to make it. Thus far they're failing. They have rather inferior seed material. That's one natural resource of the United States the quislings haven't sold yet.
Far as I know they're not expecting any usable yield from their current batch.
I think in 2030 they should be able to hit 40%. Their first real factory won't be there until 2029 at the earliest. By 2035 they will be on par with Micron/etc.
That and they're expecting a functional unification with Taiwan, and the acquisition thereby of TSMC.
Plus since TI was stupid enough to build a fab there a while ago and train up all Chinese personnel, they're not lacking in expertise worth at least one fab.
China has DRAM domestic production and their stuff is okay. Like other DRAM manufacturers their profits shot past the Moon since 2025.
CXMT is the biggest of them. As far as costumer products are concerned, their only limit is that they can't make 32GB RAM DDR5 sticks.
Their density caps at 20GB RAM per stick. Nobody cares if they can flood the foreing market at 2025 prices ( which they can't at the moment ).
The USA is, of course, constantly trying to keep CXMT from developping. The US government is banned from doing buisness with them or buying their products, and they were added to the list of "military-linked" China companies ( as if there was a single Chinese company that isn't indirectly funding China's military ).
Regardless, if they can supply the world minus the USA, this still increases overall supply everywhere.
Something of concern is that CXMT is opening a new high-bandwith-memory fab, so all that production goes straight to AI datacenters.
Yea, AFAIK the problem is that manufacturers don't want to increase production. It's expensive, takes years to build new factories and last time they did it prices crashed and they got stuck holding the bag. So they'd rather ride the current high.
Our only "hope" is that the AI bubble pops. The fact that this is a real possibility is another reason why manufacturers don't want to invest in more factories.
Once it stops being subsidized, and prices go up 30-50%, there will definitely be a correction. It's also a race to the bottom - frontier models will continue to improve but "good enough" has already been hit, and at that point companies will need to compete on price, and they can't go too much lower in pricing without losing money.
That said they ARE building new fabs, that shit just takes years.
I can tell you for a fact that the $200 ChatGPT plan can end up costing them $17,000............................
FUCK GAMING, STOCKPILE AMMO!
Are you lost? You don't belong here.
It’s also largely good enough now that you can do coding (which is a big driver of usage) on a local model. It’s slower, but so what. Give it a prompt and go make a cup of coffee, vs give it a prompt and instantly get your code. Still faster than doing it yourself.
This guy codes, and as soon as I can run a decent model with 8 gpu (the max a commercial motherboard can take), I am 100% getting some uncensored model and using it for my main LLM, MAYBE with the occasion claude request ($20 per month) for ultra-complex stuff). Bye bye chatgpt and gemini, I wont miss you.
I haven’t played with open router yet but apparently that’s the killer feature: use a local model most of the time, automatically switch to a paid one when needed.
ive not checked in in a while, what are the best local models right now?
The main issue is growing silicon crystal. It basically takes 10 years to be profitable. Chinese companies are trying to make it, and should get a 30-40% "yield" by... 2030.
By then the AI craze will/should be dead.
They're trying to make it. Thus far they're failing. They have rather inferior seed material. That's one natural resource of the United States the quislings haven't sold yet.
Far as I know they're not expecting any usable yield from their current batch.
I think in 2030 they should be able to hit 40%. Their first real factory won't be there until 2029 at the earliest. By 2035 they will be on par with Micron/etc.
That and they're expecting a functional unification with Taiwan, and the acquisition thereby of TSMC.
Plus since TI was stupid enough to build a fab there a while ago and train up all Chinese personnel, they're not lacking in expertise worth at least one fab.
China has DRAM domestic production and their stuff is okay. Like other DRAM manufacturers their profits shot past the Moon since 2025.
CXMT is the biggest of them. As far as costumer products are concerned, their only limit is that they can't make 32GB RAM DDR5 sticks.
Their density caps at 20GB RAM per stick. Nobody cares if they can flood the foreing market at 2025 prices ( which they can't at the moment ).
The USA is, of course, constantly trying to keep CXMT from developping. The US government is banned from doing buisness with them or buying their products, and they were added to the list of "military-linked" China companies ( as if there was a single Chinese company that isn't indirectly funding China's military ).
Regardless, if they can supply the world minus the USA, this still increases overall supply everywhere.
Something of concern is that CXMT is opening a new high-bandwith-memory fab, so all that production goes straight to AI datacenters.
Not aicmemroy tho..
You are wrong. Every major company with a production fab is ramping up right now.
Welcome to the ammo market
The US will have to have a different presidency in order for the AI bubble to pop. It’s being propped up almost completely by the government.