The main issue is growing silicon crystal. It basically takes 10 years to be profitable. Chinese companies are trying to make it, and should get a 30-40% "yield" by... 2030.
They're trying to make it. Thus far they're failing. They have rather inferior seed material. That's one natural resource of the United States the quislings haven't sold yet.
Far as I know they're not expecting any usable yield from their current batch.
I think in 2030 they should be able to hit 40%. Their first real factory won't be there until 2029 at the earliest. By 2035 they will be on par with Micron/etc.
That and they're expecting a functional unification with Taiwan, and the acquisition thereby of TSMC.
Plus since TI was stupid enough to build a fab there a while ago and train up all Chinese personnel, they're not lacking in expertise worth at least one fab.
China has DRAM domestic production and their stuff is okay. Like other DRAM manufacturers their profits shot past the Moon since 2025.
CXMT is the biggest of them. As far as costumer products are concerned, their only limit is that they can't make 32GB RAM DDR5 sticks.
Their density caps at 20GB RAM per stick. Nobody cares if they can flood the foreing market at 2025 prices ( which they can't at the moment ).
The USA is, of course, constantly trying to keep CXMT from developping. The US government is banned from doing buisness with them or buying their products, and they were added to the list of "military-linked" China companies ( as if there was a single Chinese company that isn't indirectly funding China's military ).
Regardless, if they can supply the world minus the USA, this still increases overall supply everywhere.
Something of concern is that CXMT is opening a new high-bandwith-memory fab, so all that production goes straight to AI datacenters.
The main issue is growing silicon crystal. It basically takes 10 years to be profitable. Chinese companies are trying to make it, and should get a 30-40% "yield" by... 2030.
By then the AI craze will/should be dead.
They're trying to make it. Thus far they're failing. They have rather inferior seed material. That's one natural resource of the United States the quislings haven't sold yet.
Far as I know they're not expecting any usable yield from their current batch.
I think in 2030 they should be able to hit 40%. Their first real factory won't be there until 2029 at the earliest. By 2035 they will be on par with Micron/etc.
That and they're expecting a functional unification with Taiwan, and the acquisition thereby of TSMC.
Plus since TI was stupid enough to build a fab there a while ago and train up all Chinese personnel, they're not lacking in expertise worth at least one fab.
Tsmc makes chips not memory, at least not the one ai needs
China has DRAM domestic production and their stuff is okay. Like other DRAM manufacturers their profits shot past the Moon since 2025.
CXMT is the biggest of them. As far as costumer products are concerned, their only limit is that they can't make 32GB RAM DDR5 sticks.
Their density caps at 20GB RAM per stick. Nobody cares if they can flood the foreing market at 2025 prices ( which they can't at the moment ).
The USA is, of course, constantly trying to keep CXMT from developping. The US government is banned from doing buisness with them or buying their products, and they were added to the list of "military-linked" China companies ( as if there was a single Chinese company that isn't indirectly funding China's military ).
Regardless, if they can supply the world minus the USA, this still increases overall supply everywhere.
Something of concern is that CXMT is opening a new high-bandwith-memory fab, so all that production goes straight to AI datacenters.
Not aicmemroy tho..