It is. "Bird flu" isn't transmitted by eggs to humans. Besides, you know what happens to a sick hen if you leave her alone? She either dies or gets better. In either case, she's immune to that strain of the flu.
Apparently, it doesn't work that way. The surviving birds may still harbor the virus and spread it to their offspring, who wouldn't necessarily have a genetic immunity to the virus. It's also a mutation prone virus with a risk of it jumping to humans.
I’ve talked to economists that suggested pretty much what this 4Chan thread said, but also that it’s not going that way. People didn’t dump money into bonds. Some bought stock on the dip. Most just kind of worried and sat on their money since it’s all very chaotic.
Especially considering that what has happened is that the government has been closer to being unable to finance their debt than whatever this 4channer is saying was supposed to happen. The stock market crashing did not in fact cause people to want to buy the government's debt. Not until they raised rates.
Now I don't know what they bought. Gold Maybe. If tariffs actually do put up trade barriers then there will be less need for other countries to use our currency which will drive its value down. That would make the government's debt cheaper. The stock market going down 20% does not. That actually creates Revenue problems because the top 1% who pay most of the taxes have the most wildly varying capital gains when the market is like this. People don't realize it but in our system the reason you tax the little people is because they reliably work and make money. Rich people post losses for some years. See Trump
Trump has no intention to deliberately crash the market.
He took the risk ( as he should have ) that any hit to Wall Street was worth the benefit of incentivising domestic manufacturing via tarifs on imports.
The thing is, everything that has been outsourced overseas was done so because it was cheaper. And it wasn't a decision made overnight or just one thing that prompted it. It was a combination of factors such as taxation, unions, safety laws, etc.
This presidency will last 4 years; maybe we get another Republican after, but eventually they will be another Democrat president.
All these companies that are being incentivized to bring jobs back to the US have to be doing the math and deciding whether it's cheaper to bring the jobs back to the US and take the hit in four or eight years when all the tariffs get dropped again, or to just suffer through the tariffs for the current presidency until things return to status quo and it again becomes cheaper to have everything made overseas.
People look at it as a crash. I look at it as a haphazard reevaluation of the multiplier that security should have given macroeconomic conditions which the president just shifted. That is to say, they were going to go down. The stock market always goes down and then goes back up again, and it has been up.
The president just gave people a reason to shift into fear mode whereas they were already looking for a reason.
Holy shit. Honestly could be true. I have been wondering why he's been so crazy; since he demonstrated during his first term an excellent understanding of the economy.
The stock market right now is 20% above its worth. It NEEDS to crash because it was artificially inflated by the previous admin.
None of our fucking salaries/wages have gone up with this 20% increase in the stock market. Whether Trump is doing it intentionally or not, I couldn't care less, because right now the money IS being redistributed back to the little guys.
I support that with nuance. The stock market must go up and it must go down in order to find an appropriate value for the current time. I do not know that there is any particular fixed value at which you say that this is where the stock market should be. This is merely the principle that everything is worth what somebody will pay for it. It's a question of optimism and pessimism spread across the masses. I can't tell people how hopeful they should be.
I think we are overdue for a correction, or we were overdue, but these things also do not occur on a schedule nor do they follow some formula. The stock market could go down 50% on fear. That would also be an appropriate response, though I would note that at that point you expect it to eventually come back up.
If I could really value the stock market more accurately than other people, then I'd have a lot more money than I actually do. I do pretty well. But I do not have magic powers.
This is what you learn trading. There is no right there is only the right time.
Trump wants our allies to have no tariffs on us as long as we protect them. And maybe wants a 5-10% tariff or similar on them so that we win on trade, but only by a reasonable margin. Also with guarantees on equal trade with low or no trade deficits on average. And to bring back manufacturing jobs to the USA. All of these things he has been talking about for decades.
The Yo-yo approach is mostly to put other countries on edge and make them want to make a deal sooner rather than deal with the instability, and 2 reward the reasonable countries that come to the table quickly with a stick and carrot approach.
Also, if he gets rid of income tax or has the lowest income tax in the world then Europe won't have any billionaires left living there within 10 years. He's made it super easy for them to get green cards with just 5 million in cash.
The one about encouraging companies to move manufacturing to the US is true, the others are pure speculation
Eggs are definitely cheaper because disruption of our 2% egg exports not because of replacing the 100 million hens that were culled.
Whoever wrote this (probably John Barron) is laughing at anybody taking any of this obvious fantasy seriously.
I still think the wholesale slaughter of livestock like that is maliciously wasteful.
It was maliciously plotted to strain Americans. There was no fucking "bird flu" just like there's no "Covid".
It is. "Bird flu" isn't transmitted by eggs to humans. Besides, you know what happens to a sick hen if you leave her alone? She either dies or gets better. In either case, she's immune to that strain of the flu.
Apparently, it doesn't work that way. The surviving birds may still harbor the virus and spread it to their offspring, who wouldn't necessarily have a genetic immunity to the virus. It's also a mutation prone virus with a risk of it jumping to humans.
I’ve talked to economists that suggested pretty much what this 4Chan thread said, but also that it’s not going that way. People didn’t dump money into bonds. Some bought stock on the dip. Most just kind of worried and sat on their money since it’s all very chaotic.
Of course not. Bonds have always sucked ass. CDs are better than Bonds. Baseball cards are better than bonds!
More than some.
True.
Mostly it didn't work because Japan started dumping bonds in retaliation.
Bond prices have the US by the balls due to the debt size. Countries that hold massive bonds hold a lot of leverage in this trade war.
Especially considering that what has happened is that the government has been closer to being unable to finance their debt than whatever this 4channer is saying was supposed to happen. The stock market crashing did not in fact cause people to want to buy the government's debt. Not until they raised rates.
Now I don't know what they bought. Gold Maybe. If tariffs actually do put up trade barriers then there will be less need for other countries to use our currency which will drive its value down. That would make the government's debt cheaper. The stock market going down 20% does not. That actually creates Revenue problems because the top 1% who pay most of the taxes have the most wildly varying capital gains when the market is like this. People don't realize it but in our system the reason you tax the little people is because they reliably work and make money. Rich people post losses for some years. See Trump
I wish it was still 2016 and I still thought like this.
What I like about Trump is the fact he will do something to shake things up rather than keeping the status quo.
Yeah, that's the main thing. He's doing something DIFFERENT than instead of just doing the same shit over and over again.
He’s doing the only non neoliberal policies we’ve had in most of our lifetimes.
Trump has no intention to deliberately crash the market.
He took the risk ( as he should have ) that any hit to Wall Street was worth the benefit of incentivising domestic manufacturing via tarifs on imports.
The thing is, everything that has been outsourced overseas was done so because it was cheaper. And it wasn't a decision made overnight or just one thing that prompted it. It was a combination of factors such as taxation, unions, safety laws, etc.
This presidency will last 4 years; maybe we get another Republican after, but eventually they will be another Democrat president.
All these companies that are being incentivized to bring jobs back to the US have to be doing the math and deciding whether it's cheaper to bring the jobs back to the US and take the hit in four or eight years when all the tariffs get dropped again, or to just suffer through the tariffs for the current presidency until things return to status quo and it again becomes cheaper to have everything made overseas.
That's why you have to break the paradigm in the first place.
People look at it as a crash. I look at it as a haphazard reevaluation of the multiplier that security should have given macroeconomic conditions which the president just shifted. That is to say, they were going to go down. The stock market always goes down and then goes back up again, and it has been up. The president just gave people a reason to shift into fear mode whereas they were already looking for a reason.
Holy shit. Honestly could be true. I have been wondering why he's been so crazy; since he demonstrated during his first term an excellent understanding of the economy.
The stock market right now is 20% above its worth. It NEEDS to crash because it was artificially inflated by the previous admin.
None of our fucking salaries/wages have gone up with this 20% increase in the stock market. Whether Trump is doing it intentionally or not, I couldn't care less, because right now the money IS being redistributed back to the little guys.
I support that with nuance. The stock market must go up and it must go down in order to find an appropriate value for the current time. I do not know that there is any particular fixed value at which you say that this is where the stock market should be. This is merely the principle that everything is worth what somebody will pay for it. It's a question of optimism and pessimism spread across the masses. I can't tell people how hopeful they should be.
I think we are overdue for a correction, or we were overdue, but these things also do not occur on a schedule nor do they follow some formula. The stock market could go down 50% on fear. That would also be an appropriate response, though I would note that at that point you expect it to eventually come back up.
If I could really value the stock market more accurately than other people, then I'd have a lot more money than I actually do. I do pretty well. But I do not have magic powers. This is what you learn trading. There is no right there is only the right time.
So... Long calls SPY 720? Long puts TSLA 160?
Oh geez I'm not trading any of that stuff. If you can figure out a way to short Ubisoft you'll make some money
Q forgot to log in to his acc.
Likely it's a lot simpler.
Trump wants our allies to have no tariffs on us as long as we protect them. And maybe wants a 5-10% tariff or similar on them so that we win on trade, but only by a reasonable margin. Also with guarantees on equal trade with low or no trade deficits on average. And to bring back manufacturing jobs to the USA. All of these things he has been talking about for decades.
The Yo-yo approach is mostly to put other countries on edge and make them want to make a deal sooner rather than deal with the instability, and 2 reward the reasonable countries that come to the table quickly with a stick and carrot approach.
Also, if he gets rid of income tax or has the lowest income tax in the world then Europe won't have any billionaires left living there within 10 years. He's made it super easy for them to get green cards with just 5 million in cash.
Can't wait for California to counteract Trump's lowered costs with localized SaveDemocracy taxes
We still doing Q shit in 2025?