The type of Russian that would flee are the type that would get shot for retreating so the only thing you're costing them is ammo.
At this point, most Russians KNOW the world is against them and know that living outside of Russia, unless they prostrate themselves like in North Korea only this time saying how evil Putin is they'll get targeted, their belongings seized and even lose their livelihoods. And since you want them living on their knees, wouldn't be surprised if most Russians go "fuck it, when are we turning Kiev into a parking lot?"
Any man who would have otherwise been willing to flee the country is not going to be worth anything in Ukraine. He's going to run away at the 1st sign of trouble.
The only fight he might be willing to stick around for is a riot/revolution.
Russia has a long history of forcing people to fight under threat of execution or deportation of their family members. When there's no way out of them, they will fight.
It worked for Stalin because he was a stone cold killer who would Gulag you in a heart beat and genocided his own people without a second thought. Stalin had to tell people to stop clapping for him because if he didn't they'd go on forever out of FEAR to not be the guy who stopped clapping first.
It was this abject terror for Stalin and his power apparatus that allowed the Soviets to mobile on a whole different level from anything the world had ever seen before or since, in response to Barbarossa.
I do not believe Putin inspires anywhere near that level of terror or control. I don't think anyone in Russia honestly believes that Putin would bring back gulags or kill people en masse for not wanting to go to Ukraine. If anything, if that DID happen, people would just rise up against Putin. His grip on power is nothing like what you saw in the USSR, let alone Stalin. He basically runs a Kleptocracy of Oligarchs.
This is why when I pose "How Germany could have won" scenarios for WW2, I point out that any Soviet attack on Germany in 1941/42, which would not have happened anyway, would have been doomed to be a repeat of the Winter War with incompetence and gotten utterly annihilated, as opposed to being some Barbarossa in reverse. While the USSR technically won the Winter War, it only won at the cost of horrific casualties and only after it ran the Finns out of ammunition by throwing endless waves of bodies at them.
In the actual history, Germany scythed through many hundreds of thousands of front line Soviet troops with ease, mostly because these troops were not primarily Russians and not fighting for Russia. So they were quick to retreat and quick to surrender.
Later on closer to Moscow, the Germans started to fight actual Russians motivated to defend their homeland, and unlike before, when the Germans pocketed these troops, they didn't just give up right away, they kept fighting, which made them a lot more difficult to deal with.
It worked for Stalin because he was a stone cold killer who would Gulag you in a heart beat and genocided his own people without a second thought.
You think there's anyone who is different - Biden, Leyen, Putin? The difference is that they think alternative ways would advance their interests better, and that there are (institutional) restraints that would prevent them from doing something like that.
I do not believe Putin inspires anywhere near that level of terror or control. I don't think anyone in Russia honestly believes that Putin would bring back gulags or kill people en masse for not wanting to go to Ukraine
They'll face severe punishment regardless. It doesn't need to be mass terror. So yeah, they'll fight.
You think there's anyone who is different - Biden, Leyen, Putin?
Yes. None of those people remotely compare to Stalin in ruthlessness. Not even Mussolini or Hitler compared to Stalin. Stalin, and perhaps Mao, were on a level of ruthlessness unseen among humanity since Qin Shi Huang.
The difference is that they think alternative ways would advance their interests better, and that there are (institutional) restraints that would prevent them from doing something like that.
Stalin targeted those institutional restraints and mass murdered them to take over the Communist Party, and then once he took over, he used mass murder and fear to do the same to the Soviet military and population writ large.
I don't think Putin is a "nice guy", but it takes a special kind of ruthless evil to literally bathe in the blood of your "enemies" on a daily basis, without end, for decades. Stalin's wife straight up shot herself in the chest because she couldn't handle him.
They'll face severe punishment regardless.
I do not share your institutional faith in the Russian bureaucracy. I don't think they have the capability or the will to lock up even tens of thousands of objectors and deserters. What usually happens in this situation is that when the government drops the jackboot, there are reactions and escalations until the bureaucrats refuse to fight on. That is how the USSR fell. The will to continue to sustain it simply wasn't there except among the hard line leaders, who didn't have enough support among the rank-and-file.
Yes. None of those people remotely compare to Stalin in ruthlessness. Not even Mussolini or Hitler compared to Stalin. Stalin, and perhaps Mao,
It was not for lack of 'ruth'. It was because they saw their interests differently. Biden and Putin may or may not commit similar mass murders if they were in Stalin's position, but that is obviously not out of any humanitarian motivation, but because they believe not committing those mass murders is not in their interests.
were on a level of ruthlessness unseen among humanity since Qin Shi Huang.
Nice reference. Blame legalism for that.
I don't think Putin is a "nice guy", but it takes a special kind of ruthless evil to literally bathe in the blood of your "enemies" on a daily basis, without end, for decades. Stalin's wife straight up shot herself in the chest because she couldn't handle him.
It is not established why she did so. Allegedly she had the Ryutin Manifesto with her. But it was only after her death when Stalin went truly on a murder spree. Earlier, he had even failed to get the Politburo to agree to the execution of Ryutin, who was clearly guilty of showing some concern for the people. Later on, people were just randomly killed.
Putin and Biden would not do that, probably. They'd have Ryutin killed, but not the random folks. Not out of humanitarianism, but because they would not see the point. They have other ways of ruling than through mass terror.
I do not share your institutional faith in the Russian bureaucracy. I don't think they have the capability or the will to lock up even tens of thousands of objectors and deserters.
Russia has always been corrupt and dysfunctional. But that's why, as the old Chinese proverb goes, you punish one to scare a hundred others. As long as the risk of deserting is greater than the risk of being killed in Ukraine, they will not desert. Which is actually good, because it motivates the regime to try to minimize casualties as opposed to going full Stalin.
What usually happens in this situation is that when the government drops the jackboot, there are reactions and escalations until the bureaucrats refuse to fight on. That is how the USSR fell.
The USSR fell because Gorbachev viewed the bureaucracy and the party as an obstacle to his power, and systematically dismantled them. And when the day came that his power was challenged by the so called reformists, there was no one left who would obey him.
The will to continue to sustain it simply wasn't there except among the hard line leaders, who didn't have enough support among the rank-and-file.
I mean, the August coup leaders were clearly right that Gorbachev was leading the state towards perdition.
I mean, the August coup leaders were clearly right that Gorbachev was leading the state towards perdition.
Point is, they didn't have enough people like you willing to execute their orders and plans. Top generals are powerless unless they have an army who is willing to follow their orders and impose their will.
Will Russian government officials really support cracking down on the Russian people when babushkas are screaming and crying at them to not send her sons to die when they show up to arrest them? Enforcing orders like that is walking a tightrope. Too gentle and too harsh and both fail states. All it takes is one rifle butt to the babushka to go viral on telegram and start a revolution.
Nuke Lithuania then do it again to make sure there's nothing left. For the good of humanity.
#1 pusher of Ukraine in NATO. Signatory of the Lublin Triangle pact. Tried to escalate the war with a blockade of Kaliningrad.
This is what happens when all your political parties are led by women's interests. Their goal is solely to get more men killed while their feminist friends at GD and NOC rake it in.
I don't think you understand the motivation of the Baltics.
Their entire foreign policy can basically be summed up as "Fuck the Russians". Not "Fuck Russia", "the Russians". They hate the country, but because they hate the people in it. If there was a Team Yankee war, the Estonians and Finns would encircle St Petersberg and put on a reenactment of Nanking.
The Soviets have replaced a large part of their population (physically removed, so to speak) with Russian colonists after taking over in the guise of "just some bases" for "mutual assisstance".
They were part of the Russian Empire though. And this all is no excuse to try to drag the rest of Europe into a war. The only reason they are this belligerent is because they think NATO will back them up.
NATO is supposed to be defensive (lol @ Serbia & Libya), not to enable chihuahuas to try to provoke conflict.
But if there was ever an independent Estonian state, I am certainly not aware of it.
Look, I know you hate Russia, but I try to look at it objectively. I think you know that of all the pro-Russia people here, I'm the most moderate, so I don't exactly get why you have made me your bete noir and not the jingoists.
The only reason they are this belligerent is because they think NATO will back them up.
And NATO will.
NATO is supposed to be defensive (lol @ Serbia & Libya), not to enable chihuahuas to try to provoke conflict.
A defensive alliance means that a member of that alliance can insult and talk shit about the bully, knowing that the bully would normally attack them but for the alliance. This weakens the bully and exposes the bully as cowardly and weak, which benefits the alliance.
It's perfectly ok to disrespect Russia. If you want to characterize that as "provoking conflict", just understand that 100% of the responsibility for said conflict is on the aggressor - Russia - not on any country or person who offended the Russians.
People talk shit about the United States ALL THE TIME. If we have to sit here and take it, so does Russia.
just understand that 100% of the responsibility for said conflict is on the aggressor
Not a Russian shill, but what do you think the US's response would have been if Russia had spent the last 20 years getting all of it's neighbors to join an anti-US alliance, culminating in bragging that Canada was about to join too?
We almost started WWII when we placed tactical nukes in Turkey and Russia reciprocated by putting some in Cuba. If you think we wouldn't invade and murder the shit out of Canada in that situation you're not a student of history.
Courting Ukraine and intimating that they would be granted NATO membership caused this war. The US and Zelensky fucked around and found out.
Repeatedly slapping a country in the face works if you can keep it down. It was impractical for the Germans after 1919 (at least, the allies did not have the will to do it), and it was a highly dubious proposition after 1991 for Russia.
Found out what exactly? That Russia isn't even a regional power at this point? That Putin had no idea about the state of the Russian armed forces or the will of the Ukrainian people such that he initiated a war that he can't win?
It's perfectly ok to disrespect Russia. If you want to characterize that as "provoking conflict", just understand that 100% of the responsibility for said conflict is on the aggressor - Russia - not on any country or person who offended the Russians.
Blockading Kaliningrad is quite another thing. Putin is extremely risk-averse. I'd have sent in armed men to force their way through, and daring the Lithuanians to shoot and start World War III. You keep calling Putin crazy, but you rely on him to be rational. It's time for a Russian leader to put the fear of God into the empire of lies, or the collective West will just continue escalating until the mushroom clouds hit.
People talk shit about the United States ALL THE TIME. If we have to sit here and take it, so does Russia.
If Russia sponsoring an attack on an American ship or carrying out an assassination on an American general is an act of war, so is the attack on the Moskva - and all the cat-lived generals who keep repeatedly being killed by the Ukrainians. (General Pavel still lives though.)
Blockading Kaliningrad would mean using military ships to fire upon any ships coming to and from Kaliningrad, and shooting down any aircraft. That is not, of course, what you are talking about. You are talking about Lithuania saying they will not allow land transit through their country to Kaliningrad anymore, which is 100% within their rights. You calling this a "blockade" is a dishonest lie. Lithuania isn't blocking ship or air traffic, which is what a "blockade" is, just traffic through their sovereign territory.
Russians can still travel to and from Kaliningrad, it just won't be as convenient.
Putin is extremely risk-averse.
He is not. His invasions of Ukraine in 2014 was high risk. His invasion in 2022 was suicidal and will lead to the power of Russia being broken for a generation, and likely to his power faction being deposed and Russia becoming Westernized. Either that or Russians will languish in poverty and irrelevance.
I'd have sent in armed men to force their way through
That's called a war, and the Lithuanians would have defeated your forces and humiliated you just like Ukraine did, AND you'd be at war with NATO getting your shit pushed in and cut off from all trade. Belarus would be promptly invaded and its government toppled and replaced with a pro-EU one.
and daring the Lithuanians to shoot and start World War III.
By "WW3" I assume you mean "if you defend yourselves, I will nuke you". Your subordinates would disobey your orders to launch nukes, and you would be killed like the Mad King in Game of Thrones. If someone was stupid enough to follow your orders and launch a nuke, NATO would have launched a general nuclear exchange on Russia with the primary aim of destroying Russia's further nuclear launch capacity. Your notions that ONLY the Russians and Chinese have the balls to launch nukes is childish.
That said, you are correct that WW3 is the only way that Russia can ever be relevant to world history again. "If I can't have it, no one will!" might appeal to you, but it does not appeal to the Russian elites. Unlike you, they have a LOT to lose. They don't want to die. They don't want their families to die. They don't want their Dachas to burn. This is why MAD has always worked, even up to and including the fall of the USSR.
You keep calling Putin crazy
I never called him crazy, just stupid and delusional by surrounding himself with "yes" men. I can prove this by pointing to how he treated Sergey Naryshkin on public television on the eve of Russia's doomed invasion of Ukraine. Naryshkin was telling Putin truthfully that the invasion would be a lot more difficult than envisioned, and Putin responded by humiliating him.
you rely on him to be rational.
Not him exclusively, as I do not believe that if he gave the order to launch nukes, that his orders would be followed. The same is true of Joe Biden, if he just gave the order out of nowhere without NATO getting nuked first.
It's time for a Russian leader to put the fear of God into the empire of lies, or the collective West will just continue escalating until the mushroom clouds hit.
Absolute cope. I'm not afraid and never will be. And if I do feel threatened, my natural response is aggression and escalation, not to back down out of fear. Americans know we are the 500 lb gorilla.
If Russia sponsoring an attack on an American ship or carrying out an assassination on an American general is an act of war, so is the attack on the Moskva - and all the cat-lived generals who keep repeatedly being killed by the Ukrainians. (General Pavel still lives though.)
Russia is welcome to declare war on the US at any time if it wants to be destroyed.
The US has every right to give Ukraine any and all assistance we deem fit. I think it's obvious that the US masterminded the Ukrainian offensive, and that HIMARS strikes on both ammo dumps and leadership has been so effective because US intelligence and satellite analysis has been giving Ukranians the targets to hit.
If the US were fighting this war directly, it is beyond obvious that we would have completely annihilated the Russian forces within a matter of weeks in an air war, exactly like we did to Saddam in Gulf War 1. Russia's military is hardly more advanced now, and the fact that it struggled so badly against Ukraine is all the proof that I need to know that the US would have simply walked over the Russians. We would have systematically destroyed the Russian air defense with our SEAD strikes, and have free reign to drop JDAM bombs on every single Russian vehicle and troop concentration. It would have just been a matter of identifying targets and generating sorties until they were all dead.
Blockading Kaliningrad would mean using military ships to fire upon any ships coming to and from Kaliningrad, and shooting down any aircraft. That is not, of course, what you are talking about. You are talking about Lithuania saying they will not allow land transit through their country to Kaliningrad anymore, which is 100% within their rights. You calling this a "blockade" is a dishonest lie. Lithuania isn't blocking ship or air traffic, which is what a "blockade" is, just traffic through their sovereign territory.
It's the absolute truth, and it's a violation of Lithuania's treaty obligations. So yeah, the Russians had every right to force their way through Lithuania, and if the Lithuanians had then fired on them, they would have been responsible for starting World War III.
He is not. His invasions of Ukraine in 2014 was high risk. His invasion in 2022 was suicidal and will lead to the power of Russia being broken for a generation, Either that or Russians will languish in poverty and irrelevance.
The invasion (singular) of Ukraine was ultra low risk. The alternative was losing Sevastopol. The more daring move would have been to swallow up all of Ukraine in 2014, as the whole state was in collapse. Instead, he let it fester as an ulcer until he finally had no choice but to act.
and likely to his power faction being deposed and Russia becoming Westernized.
You sure are enthusiastic about forcing BLM and child drag shows on Russia.
That's called a war, and the Lithuanians would have defeated your forces and humiliated you just like Ukraine did, AND you'd be at war with NATO getting your shit pushed in and cut off from all trade. Belarus would be promptly invaded and its government toppled and replaced with a pro-EU one.
The first troop to set foot in Belarus would be welcomed with a tactical nuclear bomb. NATO would get its shit kicked in. And then the onus would be on them to use strategic nuclear weapons or not.
Your subordinates would disobey your orders to launch nukes, and you would be killed like the Mad King in Game of Thrones.
Oh please, do you think anyone but the most reliable people are put in such positions? That is why it was so laughable that your people were constantly claiming that (1) Shoigu was planning a coup against Putin and then (2) that Putin had him killed. Several weeks later, he appeared on video just fine, despite having been killed by Putin.
That said, you are correct that WW3 is the only way that Russia can ever be relevant to world history again. "If I can't have it, no one will!" might appeal to you, but it does not appeal to the Russian elites. Unlike you, they have a LOT to lose.
It's a straightforward and rational calculation that the collective West has more to lose in a nuclear shootout than does Russia. Population-wise, production-wise, territory-wise. Just as an example: Russia has a pop of 143 million. Just the US has 330 million, and its European puppets have a few hundred million more. Russia also has the world's largest nuclear arsenal. It would kill 700 million Americans and allies, compared to only 143 million Russians. That seems like a smart exchange.
Besides, the Empire of Lies is top dog at the moment. You don't start a nuclear shootout when you are at the top. So... my expectaton is that they will be much more reluctant to be dragged into a nuclear confrontation. Like I said, Putin seems extreme risk-averse. It will be an ironic if you manage to depose Putin and get a leader far less to your liking.
Obviously, these hypotheticals do not match what I desire to happen. It's just what would be rational.
Not him exclusively, as I do not believe that if he gave the order to launch nukes, that his orders would be followed. The same is true of Joe Biden, if he just gave the order out of nowhere without NATO getting nuked first.
I wouldn't be betting the fate of my country on a flimsy assumption. Besides, it would not come out of nowhere, and you yourself have admitted to knowing about the Vasily Arkhipov incident, where a submarine was allegedly close to launching a nuclear weapon at a ship because it thought it was being fired at.
Absolute cope. I'm not afraid and never will be. And if I do feel threatened, my natural response is aggression and escalation, not to back down out of fear. Americans know we are the 500 lb gorilla.
You then better hope that your 'leaders' are more rational.
Russia is welcome to declare war on the US at any time if it wants to be destroyed.
It'll destroy you with it, which would be a win for Russia, since you are so much more powerful. (The earlier disclaimer applies.)
I think it's obvious that the US masterminded the Ukrainian offensive, and that HIMARS strikes on both ammo dumps and leadership has been so effective because US intelligence and satellite analysis has been giving Ukranians the targets to hit.
That is an act of war, and even if Putin does not immediately retaliate (as he should in my opinion), I'm pretty sure that this will have a world of consequences for a long time. If I were Putin, I'd make sure that no Western subject or military base is safe anywhere. I'd send weapons to any and all enemies of the US.
Seems that Putin wants to use economic warfars against your puppets (i.e., us) instead.
If the US were fighting this war directly, it is beyond obvious that we would have completely annihilated the Russian forces within a matter of weeks in an air war, exactly like we did to Saddam in Gulf War 1.
Such hubris from people who lost to the Taliban and now have their precious HIMARS Patented Pothole-makers destroyed by Iranian drones. IRANIAN drones. One of the biggest shitholes in the world, sanctioned to death by you and your puppets, and they're still kicking your ass... Apparently, Islamic goatherds are your one weakness.
Russia's military is hardly more advanced now, and the fact that it struggled so badly against Ukraine is all the proof that I need to know that the US would have simply walked over the Russians.
Russians dominating and bullying them for generations has that effect on people. The USSR was a Russian Empire that dominated all outlying ethnic groups for the benefit of Russians.
We have a billion Stormy types here, and yet the only one who keeps attacking people based on ethnicity is you. That is amazing.
But if you want to get under my skin, at least manage to correctly figure out what country I'm from.
Also, with regard to 'kill each other', I'll love you regardless of how much of a fool you make of yourself, but I will remind you of your ethnicity and your current country of residence. What a history. I'd take Lebanon over that.
You just agreed to exterminate a nation my main man.
You actually thought that was serious? Even Impy is not that insane. It's touching that you care that much about the Lithuanians though. You're secretly a nice guy at heart.
I hope this war ends soon and you can go back to being your old sane self again.
Coptic Christian, more like Gopnik Christian.
You think Lebanese are Copts? Or are you now going off your list to try to trick me into giving away something?
Lithuania and Poland was one (a commonwealth union) country for hundreds of years. When we had the Lithuanian dynasty (the house of Jagiellon) it was the most glorious era in Polish history, because the later elective kings was a very mixed bag ending with the complete end of the country (but then anyway we've still had our common uprisings against Russia).
I am aware, at least of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth. So there's no hostility towards Lithuania even though they stole Vilnus - whatever you call it in Polish?
I actually like the Baltics. They're stubborn little countries that hold on to their culture. Estonia managed to defeat Russia right after the revolution, which is an even more amazing feat than Poland defeating Russia.
What I really dislike is their belligerence which is being enabled by NATO. They need to be read the riot act: stop provoking people, and if you're attacked, we'll defend you - or we will give Russia the green light to take you.
The type of Russian that would flee are the type that would get shot for retreating so the only thing you're costing them is ammo.
At this point, most Russians KNOW the world is against them and know that living outside of Russia, unless they prostrate themselves like in North Korea only this time saying how evil Putin is they'll get targeted, their belongings seized and even lose their livelihoods. And since you want them living on their knees, wouldn't be surprised if most Russians go "fuck it, when are we turning Kiev into a parking lot?"
They are helping the Russian war effort, ultimately being rather self-defeating.
Any man who would have otherwise been willing to flee the country is not going to be worth anything in Ukraine. He's going to run away at the 1st sign of trouble.
The only fight he might be willing to stick around for is a riot/revolution.
Russia has a long history of forcing people to fight under threat of execution or deportation of their family members. When there's no way out of them, they will fight.
(Obviously, I don't approve of such measures.)
It worked for Stalin because he was a stone cold killer who would Gulag you in a heart beat and genocided his own people without a second thought. Stalin had to tell people to stop clapping for him because if he didn't they'd go on forever out of FEAR to not be the guy who stopped clapping first.
It was this abject terror for Stalin and his power apparatus that allowed the Soviets to mobile on a whole different level from anything the world had ever seen before or since, in response to Barbarossa.
I do not believe Putin inspires anywhere near that level of terror or control. I don't think anyone in Russia honestly believes that Putin would bring back gulags or kill people en masse for not wanting to go to Ukraine. If anything, if that DID happen, people would just rise up against Putin. His grip on power is nothing like what you saw in the USSR, let alone Stalin. He basically runs a Kleptocracy of Oligarchs.
That is absolutely true.
This is why when I pose "How Germany could have won" scenarios for WW2, I point out that any Soviet attack on Germany in 1941/42, which would not have happened anyway, would have been doomed to be a repeat of the Winter War with incompetence and gotten utterly annihilated, as opposed to being some Barbarossa in reverse. While the USSR technically won the Winter War, it only won at the cost of horrific casualties and only after it ran the Finns out of ammunition by throwing endless waves of bodies at them.
In the actual history, Germany scythed through many hundreds of thousands of front line Soviet troops with ease, mostly because these troops were not primarily Russians and not fighting for Russia. So they were quick to retreat and quick to surrender.
Later on closer to Moscow, the Germans started to fight actual Russians motivated to defend their homeland, and unlike before, when the Germans pocketed these troops, they didn't just give up right away, they kept fighting, which made them a lot more difficult to deal with.
You think there's anyone who is different - Biden, Leyen, Putin? The difference is that they think alternative ways would advance their interests better, and that there are (institutional) restraints that would prevent them from doing something like that.
They'll face severe punishment regardless. It doesn't need to be mass terror. So yeah, they'll fight.
Yes. None of those people remotely compare to Stalin in ruthlessness. Not even Mussolini or Hitler compared to Stalin. Stalin, and perhaps Mao, were on a level of ruthlessness unseen among humanity since Qin Shi Huang.
Stalin targeted those institutional restraints and mass murdered them to take over the Communist Party, and then once he took over, he used mass murder and fear to do the same to the Soviet military and population writ large.
I don't think Putin is a "nice guy", but it takes a special kind of ruthless evil to literally bathe in the blood of your "enemies" on a daily basis, without end, for decades. Stalin's wife straight up shot herself in the chest because she couldn't handle him.
I do not share your institutional faith in the Russian bureaucracy. I don't think they have the capability or the will to lock up even tens of thousands of objectors and deserters. What usually happens in this situation is that when the government drops the jackboot, there are reactions and escalations until the bureaucrats refuse to fight on. That is how the USSR fell. The will to continue to sustain it simply wasn't there except among the hard line leaders, who didn't have enough support among the rank-and-file.
It was not for lack of 'ruth'. It was because they saw their interests differently. Biden and Putin may or may not commit similar mass murders if they were in Stalin's position, but that is obviously not out of any humanitarian motivation, but because they believe not committing those mass murders is not in their interests.
Nice reference. Blame legalism for that.
It is not established why she did so. Allegedly she had the Ryutin Manifesto with her. But it was only after her death when Stalin went truly on a murder spree. Earlier, he had even failed to get the Politburo to agree to the execution of Ryutin, who was clearly guilty of showing some concern for the people. Later on, people were just randomly killed.
Putin and Biden would not do that, probably. They'd have Ryutin killed, but not the random folks. Not out of humanitarianism, but because they would not see the point. They have other ways of ruling than through mass terror.
Russia has always been corrupt and dysfunctional. But that's why, as the old Chinese proverb goes, you punish one to scare a hundred others. As long as the risk of deserting is greater than the risk of being killed in Ukraine, they will not desert. Which is actually good, because it motivates the regime to try to minimize casualties as opposed to going full Stalin.
The USSR fell because Gorbachev viewed the bureaucracy and the party as an obstacle to his power, and systematically dismantled them. And when the day came that his power was challenged by the so called reformists, there was no one left who would obey him.
I mean, the August coup leaders were clearly right that Gorbachev was leading the state towards perdition.
Point is, they didn't have enough people like you willing to execute their orders and plans. Top generals are powerless unless they have an army who is willing to follow their orders and impose their will.
Will Russian government officials really support cracking down on the Russian people when babushkas are screaming and crying at them to not send her sons to die when they show up to arrest them? Enforcing orders like that is walking a tightrope. Too gentle and too harsh and both fail states. All it takes is one rifle butt to the babushka to go viral on telegram and start a revolution.
Nuke Lithuania then do it again to make sure there's nothing left. For the good of humanity.
#1 pusher of Ukraine in NATO. Signatory of the Lublin Triangle pact. Tried to escalate the war with a blockade of Kaliningrad.
This is what happens when all your political parties are led by women's interests. Their goal is solely to get more men killed while their feminist friends at GD and NOC rake it in.
Boycott all Estonian and Lithuanian products.
I don't think you understand the motivation of the Baltics.
Their entire foreign policy can basically be summed up as "Fuck the Russians". Not "Fuck Russia", "the Russians". They hate the country, but because they hate the people in it. If there was a Team Yankee war, the Estonians and Finns would encircle St Petersberg and put on a reenactment of Nanking.
The Soviets have replaced a large part of their population (physically removed, so to speak) with Russian colonists after taking over in the guise of "just some bases" for "mutual assisstance".
https://communistcrimes.org/en/timeline-soviet-occupation-baltic-states
They became extremely suspicious of anything said in Russian ever since.
They were part of the Russian Empire though. And this all is no excuse to try to drag the rest of Europe into a war. The only reason they are this belligerent is because they think NATO will back them up.
NATO is supposed to be defensive (lol @ Serbia & Libya), not to enable chihuahuas to try to provoke conflict.
So was Poland. Very impressive argument tailored to me.
But if there was ever an independent Estonian state, I am certainly not aware of it.
Look, I know you hate Russia, but I try to look at it objectively. I think you know that of all the pro-Russia people here, I'm the most moderate, so I don't exactly get why you have made me your bete noir and not the jingoists.
You can be anti propping up Ukraine and not pro Russian.
Not according to SupremeReader.
I am perfectly happy watching them take each other out
And NATO will.
A defensive alliance means that a member of that alliance can insult and talk shit about the bully, knowing that the bully would normally attack them but for the alliance. This weakens the bully and exposes the bully as cowardly and weak, which benefits the alliance.
It's perfectly ok to disrespect Russia. If you want to characterize that as "provoking conflict", just understand that 100% of the responsibility for said conflict is on the aggressor - Russia - not on any country or person who offended the Russians.
People talk shit about the United States ALL THE TIME. If we have to sit here and take it, so does Russia.
Not a Russian shill, but what do you think the US's response would have been if Russia had spent the last 20 years getting all of it's neighbors to join an anti-US alliance, culminating in bragging that Canada was about to join too?
We almost started WWII when we placed tactical nukes in Turkey and Russia reciprocated by putting some in Cuba. If you think we wouldn't invade and murder the shit out of Canada in that situation you're not a student of history.
Courting Ukraine and intimating that they would be granted NATO membership caused this war. The US and Zelensky fucked around and found out.
Nah dude repeatedly slapping Russia in the face in no way escalated this conflict
Repeatedly slapping a country in the face works if you can keep it down. It was impractical for the Germans after 1919 (at least, the allies did not have the will to do it), and it was a highly dubious proposition after 1991 for Russia.
Found out what exactly? That Russia isn't even a regional power at this point? That Putin had no idea about the state of the Russian armed forces or the will of the Ukrainian people such that he initiated a war that he can't win?
Blockading Kaliningrad is quite another thing. Putin is extremely risk-averse. I'd have sent in armed men to force their way through, and daring the Lithuanians to shoot and start World War III. You keep calling Putin crazy, but you rely on him to be rational. It's time for a Russian leader to put the fear of God into the empire of lies, or the collective West will just continue escalating until the mushroom clouds hit.
If Russia sponsoring an attack on an American ship or carrying out an assassination on an American general is an act of war, so is the attack on the Moskva - and all the cat-lived generals who keep repeatedly being killed by the Ukrainians. (General Pavel still lives though.)
Blockading Kaliningrad would mean using military ships to fire upon any ships coming to and from Kaliningrad, and shooting down any aircraft. That is not, of course, what you are talking about. You are talking about Lithuania saying they will not allow land transit through their country to Kaliningrad anymore, which is 100% within their rights. You calling this a "blockade" is a dishonest lie. Lithuania isn't blocking ship or air traffic, which is what a "blockade" is, just traffic through their sovereign territory.
Russians can still travel to and from Kaliningrad, it just won't be as convenient.
He is not. His invasions of Ukraine in 2014 was high risk. His invasion in 2022 was suicidal and will lead to the power of Russia being broken for a generation, and likely to his power faction being deposed and Russia becoming Westernized. Either that or Russians will languish in poverty and irrelevance.
That's called a war, and the Lithuanians would have defeated your forces and humiliated you just like Ukraine did, AND you'd be at war with NATO getting your shit pushed in and cut off from all trade. Belarus would be promptly invaded and its government toppled and replaced with a pro-EU one.
By "WW3" I assume you mean "if you defend yourselves, I will nuke you". Your subordinates would disobey your orders to launch nukes, and you would be killed like the Mad King in Game of Thrones. If someone was stupid enough to follow your orders and launch a nuke, NATO would have launched a general nuclear exchange on Russia with the primary aim of destroying Russia's further nuclear launch capacity. Your notions that ONLY the Russians and Chinese have the balls to launch nukes is childish.
That said, you are correct that WW3 is the only way that Russia can ever be relevant to world history again. "If I can't have it, no one will!" might appeal to you, but it does not appeal to the Russian elites. Unlike you, they have a LOT to lose. They don't want to die. They don't want their families to die. They don't want their Dachas to burn. This is why MAD has always worked, even up to and including the fall of the USSR.
I never called him crazy, just stupid and delusional by surrounding himself with "yes" men. I can prove this by pointing to how he treated Sergey Naryshkin on public television on the eve of Russia's doomed invasion of Ukraine. Naryshkin was telling Putin truthfully that the invasion would be a lot more difficult than envisioned, and Putin responded by humiliating him.
Not him exclusively, as I do not believe that if he gave the order to launch nukes, that his orders would be followed. The same is true of Joe Biden, if he just gave the order out of nowhere without NATO getting nuked first.
Absolute cope. I'm not afraid and never will be. And if I do feel threatened, my natural response is aggression and escalation, not to back down out of fear. Americans know we are the 500 lb gorilla.
Russia is welcome to declare war on the US at any time if it wants to be destroyed.
The US has every right to give Ukraine any and all assistance we deem fit. I think it's obvious that the US masterminded the Ukrainian offensive, and that HIMARS strikes on both ammo dumps and leadership has been so effective because US intelligence and satellite analysis has been giving Ukranians the targets to hit.
If the US were fighting this war directly, it is beyond obvious that we would have completely annihilated the Russian forces within a matter of weeks in an air war, exactly like we did to Saddam in Gulf War 1. Russia's military is hardly more advanced now, and the fact that it struggled so badly against Ukraine is all the proof that I need to know that the US would have simply walked over the Russians. We would have systematically destroyed the Russian air defense with our SEAD strikes, and have free reign to drop JDAM bombs on every single Russian vehicle and troop concentration. It would have just been a matter of identifying targets and generating sorties until they were all dead.
It's the absolute truth, and it's a violation of Lithuania's treaty obligations. So yeah, the Russians had every right to force their way through Lithuania, and if the Lithuanians had then fired on them, they would have been responsible for starting World War III.
The invasion (singular) of Ukraine was ultra low risk. The alternative was losing Sevastopol. The more daring move would have been to swallow up all of Ukraine in 2014, as the whole state was in collapse. Instead, he let it fester as an ulcer until he finally had no choice but to act.
You sure are enthusiastic about forcing BLM and child drag shows on Russia.
The first troop to set foot in Belarus would be welcomed with a tactical nuclear bomb. NATO would get its shit kicked in. And then the onus would be on them to use strategic nuclear weapons or not.
Oh please, do you think anyone but the most reliable people are put in such positions? That is why it was so laughable that your people were constantly claiming that (1) Shoigu was planning a coup against Putin and then (2) that Putin had him killed. Several weeks later, he appeared on video just fine, despite having been killed by Putin.
It's a straightforward and rational calculation that the collective West has more to lose in a nuclear shootout than does Russia. Population-wise, production-wise, territory-wise. Just as an example: Russia has a pop of 143 million. Just the US has 330 million, and its European puppets have a few hundred million more. Russia also has the world's largest nuclear arsenal. It would kill 700 million Americans and allies, compared to only 143 million Russians. That seems like a smart exchange.
Besides, the Empire of Lies is top dog at the moment. You don't start a nuclear shootout when you are at the top. So... my expectaton is that they will be much more reluctant to be dragged into a nuclear confrontation. Like I said, Putin seems extreme risk-averse. It will be an ironic if you manage to depose Putin and get a leader far less to your liking.
Obviously, these hypotheticals do not match what I desire to happen. It's just what would be rational.
I wouldn't be betting the fate of my country on a flimsy assumption. Besides, it would not come out of nowhere, and you yourself have admitted to knowing about the Vasily Arkhipov incident, where a submarine was allegedly close to launching a nuclear weapon at a ship because it thought it was being fired at.
You then better hope that your 'leaders' are more rational.
It'll destroy you with it, which would be a win for Russia, since you are so much more powerful. (The earlier disclaimer applies.)
That is an act of war, and even if Putin does not immediately retaliate (as he should in my opinion), I'm pretty sure that this will have a world of consequences for a long time. If I were Putin, I'd make sure that no Western subject or military base is safe anywhere. I'd send weapons to any and all enemies of the US.
Seems that Putin wants to use economic warfars against your puppets (i.e., us) instead.
Such hubris from people who lost to the Taliban and now have their precious HIMARS Patented Pothole-makers destroyed by Iranian drones. IRANIAN drones. One of the biggest shitholes in the world, sanctioned to death by you and your puppets, and they're still kicking your ass... Apparently, Islamic goatherds are your one weakness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wpU376NnZ0
You mean: 'we'.
And the guise of Russian fighting age men fleeing the draft all showing up trying to get in is probably concerning to them
Russians dominating and bullying them for generations has that effect on people. The USSR was a Russian Empire that dominated all outlying ethnic groups for the benefit of Russians.
For once, we agree.
True. Geopolitics means nothing. It's all just women trying to get more men killed.
We don't need to nuke Lebanon, only let you all kill each other.
We have a billion Stormy types here, and yet the only one who keeps attacking people based on ethnicity is you. That is amazing.
But if you want to get under my skin, at least manage to correctly figure out what country I'm from.
Also, with regard to 'kill each other', I'll love you regardless of how much of a fool you make of yourself, but I will remind you of your ethnicity and your current country of residence. What a history. I'd take Lebanon over that.
You just agreed to exterminate a nation my main man.
Coptic Christian, more like Gopnik Christian.
You actually thought that was serious? Even Impy is not that insane. It's touching that you care that much about the Lithuanians though. You're secretly a nice guy at heart.
I hope this war ends soon and you can go back to being your old sane self again.
You think Lebanese are Copts? Or are you now going off your list to try to trick me into giving away something?
Lithuania and Poland was one (a commonwealth union) country for hundreds of years. When we had the Lithuanian dynasty (the house of Jagiellon) it was the most glorious era in Polish history, because the later elective kings was a very mixed bag ending with the complete end of the country (but then anyway we've still had our common uprisings against Russia).
I am aware, at least of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth. So there's no hostility towards Lithuania even though they stole Vilnus - whatever you call it in Polish?
Gediminid Lithuania was best Lithuania.
I dunno...
Correct, even though I hate that country with every fibre of my being.
I actually like the Baltics. They're stubborn little countries that hold on to their culture. Estonia managed to defeat Russia right after the revolution, which is an even more amazing feat than Poland defeating Russia.
What I really dislike is their belligerence which is being enabled by NATO. They need to be read the riot act: stop provoking people, and if you're attacked, we'll defend you - or we will give Russia the green light to take you.