Any man who would have otherwise been willing to flee the country is not going to be worth anything in Ukraine. He's going to run away at the 1st sign of trouble.
The only fight he might be willing to stick around for is a riot/revolution.
Russia has a long history of forcing people to fight under threat of execution or deportation of their family members. When there's no way out of them, they will fight.
It worked for Stalin because he was a stone cold killer who would Gulag you in a heart beat and genocided his own people without a second thought. Stalin had to tell people to stop clapping for him because if he didn't they'd go on forever out of FEAR to not be the guy who stopped clapping first.
It was this abject terror for Stalin and his power apparatus that allowed the Soviets to mobile on a whole different level from anything the world had ever seen before or since, in response to Barbarossa.
I do not believe Putin inspires anywhere near that level of terror or control. I don't think anyone in Russia honestly believes that Putin would bring back gulags or kill people en masse for not wanting to go to Ukraine. If anything, if that DID happen, people would just rise up against Putin. His grip on power is nothing like what you saw in the USSR, let alone Stalin. He basically runs a Kleptocracy of Oligarchs.
This is why when I pose "How Germany could have won" scenarios for WW2, I point out that any Soviet attack on Germany in 1941/42, which would not have happened anyway, would have been doomed to be a repeat of the Winter War with incompetence and gotten utterly annihilated, as opposed to being some Barbarossa in reverse. While the USSR technically won the Winter War, it only won at the cost of horrific casualties and only after it ran the Finns out of ammunition by throwing endless waves of bodies at them.
In the actual history, Germany scythed through many hundreds of thousands of front line Soviet troops with ease, mostly because these troops were not primarily Russians and not fighting for Russia. So they were quick to retreat and quick to surrender.
Later on closer to Moscow, the Germans started to fight actual Russians motivated to defend their homeland, and unlike before, when the Germans pocketed these troops, they didn't just give up right away, they kept fighting, which made them a lot more difficult to deal with.
It worked for Stalin because he was a stone cold killer who would Gulag you in a heart beat and genocided his own people without a second thought.
You think there's anyone who is different - Biden, Leyen, Putin? The difference is that they think alternative ways would advance their interests better, and that there are (institutional) restraints that would prevent them from doing something like that.
I do not believe Putin inspires anywhere near that level of terror or control. I don't think anyone in Russia honestly believes that Putin would bring back gulags or kill people en masse for not wanting to go to Ukraine
They'll face severe punishment regardless. It doesn't need to be mass terror. So yeah, they'll fight.
You think there's anyone who is different - Biden, Leyen, Putin?
Yes. None of those people remotely compare to Stalin in ruthlessness. Not even Mussolini or Hitler compared to Stalin. Stalin, and perhaps Mao, were on a level of ruthlessness unseen among humanity since Qin Shi Huang.
The difference is that they think alternative ways would advance their interests better, and that there are (institutional) restraints that would prevent them from doing something like that.
Stalin targeted those institutional restraints and mass murdered them to take over the Communist Party, and then once he took over, he used mass murder and fear to do the same to the Soviet military and population writ large.
I don't think Putin is a "nice guy", but it takes a special kind of ruthless evil to literally bathe in the blood of your "enemies" on a daily basis, without end, for decades. Stalin's wife straight up shot herself in the chest because she couldn't handle him.
They'll face severe punishment regardless.
I do not share your institutional faith in the Russian bureaucracy. I don't think they have the capability or the will to lock up even tens of thousands of objectors and deserters. What usually happens in this situation is that when the government drops the jackboot, there are reactions and escalations until the bureaucrats refuse to fight on. That is how the USSR fell. The will to continue to sustain it simply wasn't there except among the hard line leaders, who didn't have enough support among the rank-and-file.
Any man who would have otherwise been willing to flee the country is not going to be worth anything in Ukraine. He's going to run away at the 1st sign of trouble.
The only fight he might be willing to stick around for is a riot/revolution.
Russia has a long history of forcing people to fight under threat of execution or deportation of their family members. When there's no way out of them, they will fight.
(Obviously, I don't approve of such measures.)
It worked for Stalin because he was a stone cold killer who would Gulag you in a heart beat and genocided his own people without a second thought. Stalin had to tell people to stop clapping for him because if he didn't they'd go on forever out of FEAR to not be the guy who stopped clapping first.
It was this abject terror for Stalin and his power apparatus that allowed the Soviets to mobile on a whole different level from anything the world had ever seen before or since, in response to Barbarossa.
I do not believe Putin inspires anywhere near that level of terror or control. I don't think anyone in Russia honestly believes that Putin would bring back gulags or kill people en masse for not wanting to go to Ukraine. If anything, if that DID happen, people would just rise up against Putin. His grip on power is nothing like what you saw in the USSR, let alone Stalin. He basically runs a Kleptocracy of Oligarchs.
That is absolutely true.
This is why when I pose "How Germany could have won" scenarios for WW2, I point out that any Soviet attack on Germany in 1941/42, which would not have happened anyway, would have been doomed to be a repeat of the Winter War with incompetence and gotten utterly annihilated, as opposed to being some Barbarossa in reverse. While the USSR technically won the Winter War, it only won at the cost of horrific casualties and only after it ran the Finns out of ammunition by throwing endless waves of bodies at them.
In the actual history, Germany scythed through many hundreds of thousands of front line Soviet troops with ease, mostly because these troops were not primarily Russians and not fighting for Russia. So they were quick to retreat and quick to surrender.
Later on closer to Moscow, the Germans started to fight actual Russians motivated to defend their homeland, and unlike before, when the Germans pocketed these troops, they didn't just give up right away, they kept fighting, which made them a lot more difficult to deal with.
You think there's anyone who is different - Biden, Leyen, Putin? The difference is that they think alternative ways would advance their interests better, and that there are (institutional) restraints that would prevent them from doing something like that.
They'll face severe punishment regardless. It doesn't need to be mass terror. So yeah, they'll fight.
Yes. None of those people remotely compare to Stalin in ruthlessness. Not even Mussolini or Hitler compared to Stalin. Stalin, and perhaps Mao, were on a level of ruthlessness unseen among humanity since Qin Shi Huang.
Stalin targeted those institutional restraints and mass murdered them to take over the Communist Party, and then once he took over, he used mass murder and fear to do the same to the Soviet military and population writ large.
I don't think Putin is a "nice guy", but it takes a special kind of ruthless evil to literally bathe in the blood of your "enemies" on a daily basis, without end, for decades. Stalin's wife straight up shot herself in the chest because she couldn't handle him.
I do not share your institutional faith in the Russian bureaucracy. I don't think they have the capability or the will to lock up even tens of thousands of objectors and deserters. What usually happens in this situation is that when the government drops the jackboot, there are reactions and escalations until the bureaucrats refuse to fight on. That is how the USSR fell. The will to continue to sustain it simply wasn't there except among the hard line leaders, who didn't have enough support among the rank-and-file.