Russia has a long history of forcing people to fight under threat of execution or deportation of their family members. When there's no way out of them, they will fight.
It worked for Stalin because he was a stone cold killer who would Gulag you in a heart beat and genocided his own people without a second thought. Stalin had to tell people to stop clapping for him because if he didn't they'd go on forever out of FEAR to not be the guy who stopped clapping first.
It was this abject terror for Stalin and his power apparatus that allowed the Soviets to mobile on a whole different level from anything the world had ever seen before or since, in response to Barbarossa.
I do not believe Putin inspires anywhere near that level of terror or control. I don't think anyone in Russia honestly believes that Putin would bring back gulags or kill people en masse for not wanting to go to Ukraine. If anything, if that DID happen, people would just rise up against Putin. His grip on power is nothing like what you saw in the USSR, let alone Stalin. He basically runs a Kleptocracy of Oligarchs.
This is why when I pose "How Germany could have won" scenarios for WW2, I point out that any Soviet attack on Germany in 1941/42, which would not have happened anyway, would have been doomed to be a repeat of the Winter War with incompetence and gotten utterly annihilated, as opposed to being some Barbarossa in reverse. While the USSR technically won the Winter War, it only won at the cost of horrific casualties and only after it ran the Finns out of ammunition by throwing endless waves of bodies at them.
In the actual history, Germany scythed through many hundreds of thousands of front line Soviet troops with ease, mostly because these troops were not primarily Russians and not fighting for Russia. So they were quick to retreat and quick to surrender.
Later on closer to Moscow, the Germans started to fight actual Russians motivated to defend their homeland, and unlike before, when the Germans pocketed these troops, they didn't just give up right away, they kept fighting, which made them a lot more difficult to deal with.
It worked for Stalin because he was a stone cold killer who would Gulag you in a heart beat and genocided his own people without a second thought.
You think there's anyone who is different - Biden, Leyen, Putin? The difference is that they think alternative ways would advance their interests better, and that there are (institutional) restraints that would prevent them from doing something like that.
I do not believe Putin inspires anywhere near that level of terror or control. I don't think anyone in Russia honestly believes that Putin would bring back gulags or kill people en masse for not wanting to go to Ukraine
They'll face severe punishment regardless. It doesn't need to be mass terror. So yeah, they'll fight.
You think there's anyone who is different - Biden, Leyen, Putin?
Yes. None of those people remotely compare to Stalin in ruthlessness. Not even Mussolini or Hitler compared to Stalin. Stalin, and perhaps Mao, were on a level of ruthlessness unseen among humanity since Qin Shi Huang.
The difference is that they think alternative ways would advance their interests better, and that there are (institutional) restraints that would prevent them from doing something like that.
Stalin targeted those institutional restraints and mass murdered them to take over the Communist Party, and then once he took over, he used mass murder and fear to do the same to the Soviet military and population writ large.
I don't think Putin is a "nice guy", but it takes a special kind of ruthless evil to literally bathe in the blood of your "enemies" on a daily basis, without end, for decades. Stalin's wife straight up shot herself in the chest because she couldn't handle him.
They'll face severe punishment regardless.
I do not share your institutional faith in the Russian bureaucracy. I don't think they have the capability or the will to lock up even tens of thousands of objectors and deserters. What usually happens in this situation is that when the government drops the jackboot, there are reactions and escalations until the bureaucrats refuse to fight on. That is how the USSR fell. The will to continue to sustain it simply wasn't there except among the hard line leaders, who didn't have enough support among the rank-and-file.
Yes. None of those people remotely compare to Stalin in ruthlessness. Not even Mussolini or Hitler compared to Stalin. Stalin, and perhaps Mao,
It was not for lack of 'ruth'. It was because they saw their interests differently. Biden and Putin may or may not commit similar mass murders if they were in Stalin's position, but that is obviously not out of any humanitarian motivation, but because they believe not committing those mass murders is not in their interests.
were on a level of ruthlessness unseen among humanity since Qin Shi Huang.
Nice reference. Blame legalism for that.
I don't think Putin is a "nice guy", but it takes a special kind of ruthless evil to literally bathe in the blood of your "enemies" on a daily basis, without end, for decades. Stalin's wife straight up shot herself in the chest because she couldn't handle him.
It is not established why she did so. Allegedly she had the Ryutin Manifesto with her. But it was only after her death when Stalin went truly on a murder spree. Earlier, he had even failed to get the Politburo to agree to the execution of Ryutin, who was clearly guilty of showing some concern for the people. Later on, people were just randomly killed.
Putin and Biden would not do that, probably. They'd have Ryutin killed, but not the random folks. Not out of humanitarianism, but because they would not see the point. They have other ways of ruling than through mass terror.
I do not share your institutional faith in the Russian bureaucracy. I don't think they have the capability or the will to lock up even tens of thousands of objectors and deserters.
Russia has always been corrupt and dysfunctional. But that's why, as the old Chinese proverb goes, you punish one to scare a hundred others. As long as the risk of deserting is greater than the risk of being killed in Ukraine, they will not desert. Which is actually good, because it motivates the regime to try to minimize casualties as opposed to going full Stalin.
What usually happens in this situation is that when the government drops the jackboot, there are reactions and escalations until the bureaucrats refuse to fight on. That is how the USSR fell.
The USSR fell because Gorbachev viewed the bureaucracy and the party as an obstacle to his power, and systematically dismantled them. And when the day came that his power was challenged by the so called reformists, there was no one left who would obey him.
The will to continue to sustain it simply wasn't there except among the hard line leaders, who didn't have enough support among the rank-and-file.
I mean, the August coup leaders were clearly right that Gorbachev was leading the state towards perdition.
Russia has a long history of forcing people to fight under threat of execution or deportation of their family members. When there's no way out of them, they will fight.
(Obviously, I don't approve of such measures.)
It worked for Stalin because he was a stone cold killer who would Gulag you in a heart beat and genocided his own people without a second thought. Stalin had to tell people to stop clapping for him because if he didn't they'd go on forever out of FEAR to not be the guy who stopped clapping first.
It was this abject terror for Stalin and his power apparatus that allowed the Soviets to mobile on a whole different level from anything the world had ever seen before or since, in response to Barbarossa.
I do not believe Putin inspires anywhere near that level of terror or control. I don't think anyone in Russia honestly believes that Putin would bring back gulags or kill people en masse for not wanting to go to Ukraine. If anything, if that DID happen, people would just rise up against Putin. His grip on power is nothing like what you saw in the USSR, let alone Stalin. He basically runs a Kleptocracy of Oligarchs.
That is absolutely true.
This is why when I pose "How Germany could have won" scenarios for WW2, I point out that any Soviet attack on Germany in 1941/42, which would not have happened anyway, would have been doomed to be a repeat of the Winter War with incompetence and gotten utterly annihilated, as opposed to being some Barbarossa in reverse. While the USSR technically won the Winter War, it only won at the cost of horrific casualties and only after it ran the Finns out of ammunition by throwing endless waves of bodies at them.
In the actual history, Germany scythed through many hundreds of thousands of front line Soviet troops with ease, mostly because these troops were not primarily Russians and not fighting for Russia. So they were quick to retreat and quick to surrender.
Later on closer to Moscow, the Germans started to fight actual Russians motivated to defend their homeland, and unlike before, when the Germans pocketed these troops, they didn't just give up right away, they kept fighting, which made them a lot more difficult to deal with.
You think there's anyone who is different - Biden, Leyen, Putin? The difference is that they think alternative ways would advance their interests better, and that there are (institutional) restraints that would prevent them from doing something like that.
They'll face severe punishment regardless. It doesn't need to be mass terror. So yeah, they'll fight.
Yes. None of those people remotely compare to Stalin in ruthlessness. Not even Mussolini or Hitler compared to Stalin. Stalin, and perhaps Mao, were on a level of ruthlessness unseen among humanity since Qin Shi Huang.
Stalin targeted those institutional restraints and mass murdered them to take over the Communist Party, and then once he took over, he used mass murder and fear to do the same to the Soviet military and population writ large.
I don't think Putin is a "nice guy", but it takes a special kind of ruthless evil to literally bathe in the blood of your "enemies" on a daily basis, without end, for decades. Stalin's wife straight up shot herself in the chest because she couldn't handle him.
I do not share your institutional faith in the Russian bureaucracy. I don't think they have the capability or the will to lock up even tens of thousands of objectors and deserters. What usually happens in this situation is that when the government drops the jackboot, there are reactions and escalations until the bureaucrats refuse to fight on. That is how the USSR fell. The will to continue to sustain it simply wasn't there except among the hard line leaders, who didn't have enough support among the rank-and-file.
It was not for lack of 'ruth'. It was because they saw their interests differently. Biden and Putin may or may not commit similar mass murders if they were in Stalin's position, but that is obviously not out of any humanitarian motivation, but because they believe not committing those mass murders is not in their interests.
Nice reference. Blame legalism for that.
It is not established why she did so. Allegedly she had the Ryutin Manifesto with her. But it was only after her death when Stalin went truly on a murder spree. Earlier, he had even failed to get the Politburo to agree to the execution of Ryutin, who was clearly guilty of showing some concern for the people. Later on, people were just randomly killed.
Putin and Biden would not do that, probably. They'd have Ryutin killed, but not the random folks. Not out of humanitarianism, but because they would not see the point. They have other ways of ruling than through mass terror.
Russia has always been corrupt and dysfunctional. But that's why, as the old Chinese proverb goes, you punish one to scare a hundred others. As long as the risk of deserting is greater than the risk of being killed in Ukraine, they will not desert. Which is actually good, because it motivates the regime to try to minimize casualties as opposed to going full Stalin.
The USSR fell because Gorbachev viewed the bureaucracy and the party as an obstacle to his power, and systematically dismantled them. And when the day came that his power was challenged by the so called reformists, there was no one left who would obey him.
I mean, the August coup leaders were clearly right that Gorbachev was leading the state towards perdition.