Trump was absolutely correct that Zelensky doesn't have any cards, but as of the fall of Kursk, neither has Trump. It's not his fault, but it is what it is.
- Weapons? Useless.
- Sanctions? Not very effective.
- Direct military reinforcement? Out of the question.
- Kursk? Fallen.
The only thing Putin has to lose is more of his men in the course of the war, but I'd guess the majority of Russian soldiers and civilians believe the fight is worth it at this point. Russia will whoop on Ukraine some more and eventually there won't be anything to negotiate with.
Trump should ally with Russia and declare war on Ukraine.
Please?
It would be hilarious.
"Fine, you convinced us Zelenskyy™, we're sending 100,000 ground forces to Kyiv." - Trump.
In a different timeline, imagine if we opened up our arms to embrace Russia in 1991. They had a huge manufacturing base, access to three oceans, and were desperate for investment. They had lots of energy, but no innovation. We craved energy, and had lots of innovation to share.
Instead we decided to make our future worst enemy ultra-trillionaires and let them have a nuclear program even though they literally sent their own actual soldiers to kill ours in at least two wars on the Pacific Rim.
Early in his presidency, Putin actually floated the idea of Russia joining NATO to Clinton, who was initially supportive of the idea. Unfortunately, Clinton later told Putin that it wouldn't work out, which led Putin to think POTUS wasn't in charge of the West after all.
I don't want to invade but, if Trump has the absolute balls for it, peaceful relations with Russia, in the face of recent global(ist) convention, would be huge.
We don't have to - and shouldn't - invade Ukraine, but we could and should pull support, and get the minerals from Russia. Would be hilarious indeed.
We should not* ally with Russia but we should still invade Ukraine
Leftists are outraged by Trump’s attitude towards Ukraine for the same reason they are outraged towards Trump himself: western propaganda has created a false consensus of the reality on the ground. Leftists think Trump is being needlessly deferential to the point of “muh treason” when the truth is that Russia actually holds almost all the cards.
Trump has the ultimate card. The "do nothing and let them kill each other because we don't give a fuck what happens over seas," card
Somehow he doesn't play that card with Bibi, curious.
It's always hard to tell what's real, since both sides put out massive amounts of propaganda, but it would be interesting if Russia had allowed Kursk to be occupied, to set a trap. There's worries about the Ukrainian forces being cut off, which would completely reverse the bargaining power of occupying Russian territory.
Imagine if Russia comes to the table with freshly captured or trapped Ukrainian forces in the tens of thousands, where Ukraine thought they had Russian land instead.
Sounds like special forces were walking around in the gas pipelines and used them to launch rear attacks on the Ukrainians, too. Pretty amazing.
Those aren't worries anymore. Russia has had full artillery and drone coverage of the only supply route to Kursk for a week or more now.
Not that hard to imagine. We're talking about the people who sacrificed Moscow to rope-a-dope Napoleon, after all. Most people just can't understand that Russians do war differently than we do and don't really care that much about casualties.
Trump knows Putin wants an out that keeps his ego and reputation intact. The way he's approached it so far sidelining the Europeans who are too focused on humiliating their enemy, has already put him in good standing with the Russians.
That avoids another war happening in the next decade and might, with a reduced deep state apparatus in the US, lead to business ties between Russia and the US that sidelines China AND globalist organisations like UN, WEF, WHO etc.
My Fantasy Future: US/Russia trade skyrockets, builds up relations. BC & Alberta annexed into the US, and Alaska, BC, and AB become massive trading centers that sideline shitlib areas and leave them to rot. China falls apart from neglect and mismanagement. Boomer-era Anti-Russia Cold War ideology collapses and dies with them. New era revives the "space race" and John Smith & Ivan Ivanovich leap out into the stars in friendly rivalry and competition.
I'd say the most dangerous tool, if it exists, would be intel on the location and activities of high ranking russian officials and putin himself. We've seen people travel from ukraine into russia for sabotage (and vice versa). No reason these teams couldn't be equipped with guided missiles. VIP gets in a plane or a car and you blast him.
Weapon systems could be effective if they were mass produced in cost reduced versions. Europe should have been working on this since day one but they haven't been. With the supplies that are available, a significant impact to the russian economy or war machine could probably still be made by bombarding oil refineries and air fields with cruise missiles. This has been restricted by policy, not technology.
It doesn't look like it's gonna go that way though. They'll carve up ukraine, americans will shrug and move onto the next thing, euros will seethe. If euros care so much they should try working at least 40 hours per week.
Assassination is absolutely out of the question. Because WW3.
You make a compelling point, but that backs Russia to the wall of mutual nuclear annihilation. And push comes to shove, they will always care more about Ukraine than we will.
I doubt Ukraine can be supplied with, as well as maintain, any deep strike capabilities before the Russians eradicate it down to ineffective levels. No Western wunderwaffen has operated unscathed.
I also don't see weapons being the deciding factor, with the exception of artillery. Russia has something like a 5:1 artillery advantage. But it is logistically impossible to close the artillery gap without WWII Defense Act levels of production.
Who cares
Why wouldn't whatever peace the West eventually signs be treated like the Minsk Accords-- as time to prepare arms against Russia? Putin has every reason to believe that a ceasefire (like the Trump is demanding as a precondition to negotiations) would be used to solidify the crumbling UA military position. He loses even more lives if he lets up and resistance stiffens, so why would he ever let up?
I mentioned Trump, but Zelenskyy (the other party who can negotiate) is widely hated within UA for both his conscription and his confiscation of Ukrainian Orthodox churches. Remember that the UA secret police are out in force and elections are off the table. "Defender of the Free World" he ain't.
What can the NATO proxy UA offer at the table, beyond unconditional surrender? Even the USA has nothing constructive to add because our government cannot be trusted to stand by its word. Look at the 1990 ideas of NATO expansion the (then) USSR was fed: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early and tell me why Russia should trust ANYTHING the west has to say?
Trump being a possible exception, the West has been agreement-incapable for decades and Russia turning East to join hands with China is a sign of things to come.
Yeah, but china's fucked russia as often as we have... If we can show the ruskies we're willing to deal with the fairly and consistently, we have a chance, which is more than I can say about constantly trying to strong-arm them...
If Kursk has fallen, then that leaves the corridor open for Russian troops to march onto Kyiv while Ukrainian troops are occupied elsewhere. Russia's ultimate goal is to have Ukraine become Russian territory up to the Polish, Romanian and Moldovian border before "liberating" Transnistria. If Kyiv falls, the rest will fall. Trump gets a deal with Putin for minerals and Europe faces the prospect of what's next (probably the Suwalki Gap to allow Russia to have a land crossing with Kaliningrad with Belarus and ultimately Russia).
Biden's entire crack stash. Just give it to Zelensky, then lock the door, preventing him from leaving.
Then Ukraine can call off this stupid war, then hold much-needed elections.
Sounds like Russia kicked the Ukrainians out, and took back most of the region.
Oh, I see.
I mean the strongest negotiating point is formal recognition of Russia's annexation of at the very least Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea.
Letting Russia have what they already have isn’t a legitimate starting point for negotiations lol
formal recognition goes a long way, though.