Trump was absolutely correct that Zelensky doesn't have any cards, but as of the fall of Kursk, neither has Trump. It's not his fault, but it is what it is.
- Weapons? Useless.
- Sanctions? Not very effective.
- Direct military reinforcement? Out of the question.
- Kursk? Fallen.
The only thing Putin has to lose is more of his men in the course of the war, but I'd guess the majority of Russian soldiers and civilians believe the fight is worth it at this point. Russia will whoop on Ukraine some more and eventually there won't be anything to negotiate with.
Why wouldn't whatever peace the West eventually signs be treated like the Minsk Accords-- as time to prepare arms against Russia? Putin has every reason to believe that a ceasefire (like the Trump is demanding as a precondition to negotiations) would be used to solidify the crumbling UA military position. He loses even more lives if he lets up and resistance stiffens, so why would he ever let up?
I mentioned Trump, but Zelenskyy (the other party who can negotiate) is widely hated within UA for both his conscription and his confiscation of Ukrainian Orthodox churches. Remember that the UA secret police are out in force and elections are off the table. "Defender of the Free World" he ain't.
What can the NATO proxy UA offer at the table, beyond unconditional surrender? Even the USA has nothing constructive to add because our government cannot be trusted to stand by its word. Look at the 1990 ideas of NATO expansion the (then) USSR was fed: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early and tell me why Russia should trust ANYTHING the west has to say?
Trump being a possible exception, the West has been agreement-incapable for decades and Russia turning East to join hands with China is a sign of things to come.
Yeah, but china's fucked russia as often as we have... If we can show the ruskies we're willing to deal with the fairly and consistently, we have a chance, which is more than I can say about constantly trying to strong-arm them...