Literally every ceasefire with Israel ends up with them attacking the other party either immediately or once sufficient ammunition has refilled.
If this isn't a false flag then Iran is extremely cognizant of that and presuming that they will win the war of attrition, which is obviously predicated on external parties not interfering. (There's no way Iran isn't aware of how worthless agreements with Western nations are given their personal experiences including this year with The Zionald.)
And if it is a false flag, well, that's what Israel does best and we'll see if the U.S. continues to piss away more billions after the continued post-election mess spread across Ukraine, Yemen and Israel/Iran.
Given how chaotic Iran seems to be, not impossible I guess, but also not very likely. Or maybe they had simple Middle Eastern disregard for time. It won't be the first time someone arrived 7 minutes late.
Does anyone even know when the cease fire was supposed to be in effect? Because after Trumps ceasefire tweet Israel started bombing Teheran. A couple hours later Iran supposedly fired another missile volley.
I get the impression Social Media diplomacy isn't the best idea.
The tweet was mentioning different times at which each country's ceasefire was supposed to begin, with Iran stopping hours before Israel had to stop, which was odd.
I don't know exactly when Iran was supposed to stop, though.
The tweet was mentioning different times at which each country's ceasefire was supposed to begin, with Iran stopping hours before Israel had to stop, which was odd.
Guess they wanted another Lebanon 'ceasefire'. Israel bombs Lebanon whenever it wants and Hezbollah is not allowed to react.
In this case, the hypothetical missile did not even land, so there's not even a need for a crater. Fortunately, Trump has regained his senses and he pointed out that an intercepted missile is absolutely no reason for actions that take lives.
It's not a false flag. Those were real missiles from Iran.
However, Iran said they had the right under the ceasefire to continue firing these last remaining missiles. ... However, they also said they hadn't agreed to a ceasefire. ... However, the Iranian legislature said they agreed to a ceasefire. ... However, Iran doesn't have very good reasons to end the war when they could prolong it to their advantage.
At this point, I think the war has begun spiraling out of control, such that no one is clear what is going on, even the belligerents themselves.
I think Israel and Iran are trying to give themselves Casus Belli to continue the war even after something had been negotiated with the Qataris.
Given how much of Iranians command the Israelis effectively assassinated, is there enough let TO allow stable communications there for a ceasefire to be passed down the chain in an orderly fashion?
I think you're off base on this. That's not why we didn't nuke Tokyo (also it was still on a target list).
Remember, the worst firebombing raid in human history happened in Tokyo. We killed 150,000 in a single night. The initial death toll in Hiroshima and Nagasaki are far lower than that. That number comes from Robert McNamara having a conversation with Curtis LeMay, who came up with the raid.
We didn't really care what was left of them, but someone would surrender or we were going to kill literally everyone.
We didn't nuke Tokyo because it was better defended.
Killing each negotiator who isn't amenable to your demands is a viable strategy, but it's a ruthless one.
That's the reason they didn't nuke Kyoto (the capital) because killing off the entire government would make it hard to talk to, you know, their government. 🙄
They didn't nuke Tokyo because it had been effectively destroyed already. That one firebomb raid (for 3 days & nights, iirc) killed 150K and literally turned much of the city to ashes.
But Iran is FAR from that situation. IDF did wipe out 12 of the top air defense commanders, causing chaos while they destroyed their air defense network, but there's still hundreds of generals (or the equivalent, like commanding Colonels) out there to give & receive orders.
It's interesting that they don't say the missile was intercepted over or near Israel. Or that it impacted in Israel.
The said they saw a launch towards Israel. Which, in the strictest meaning, could even be true for a launch originating and terminating in Iran. That'd be unlikely to be visible from Israel but...
"a missile... seen from... the West Bank, June 24, 2025" doesn't specifically say it's the missile the narrative is referring to. That's the intended assumption but that photo could have been before the ceasefire went into effect and still June 24 local time.
It's sad that every word in a Reuters article has to be examined for the most unintuitive, but technically correct, interpretation but that's where we are with journalism now.
Edit:
At 06:08 BST, Donald Trump posted on social media that a ceasefire between Iran and Israel had come into effect
Just over an hour later, Israel said it had agreed to the US ceasefire proposal, while Iran said earlier it would stop attacking if Israel did the same
Then at 08:30, the Israeli military said it had identified missiles launched from Iran and intercepted them over northern Israel
Iran has denied firing any missiles, but the IDF insists Israel will "respond with force"
Emphasis last line. Hopefully the US has enough surveillance of its own that it can tell where they originated without relying on foreign intel.
Iran absolutely launched missiles. But I'm not at all clear that it violated any ceasefire agreement.
Iran is absolutely lying about the missiles, but I have no idea what the agreements actually were with the ceasefire. I'm not even sure the people who launched the missiles knew there was one.
Well, they're all talking to each other, so I assume the truth will be readily apparent in the private back and forth even if we have no idea what's going on.
I actually think the situation is so confused right now that even the belligerents don't know what's happening.
Think about it at an organizational level. When we're talking about time-sensitive communication, the organization may still lurch in one direction or another even after the C-Suite has made a decision. Not only is there a lag time in communication, but also in re-directing pre-scheduled efforts, and this assumes zero subversion.
I think Iran and Israel agreed to something with the Qataris, but we don't know what it is, and I think it's clear that the chain of command in Iran is going to be very confused given the damage it's received, and any pro-war sentiment on the Israeli or American side is going to be very subversive.
Literally every ceasefire with Israel ends up with them attacking the other party either immediately or once sufficient ammunition has refilled.
If this isn't a false flag then Iran is extremely cognizant of that and presuming that they will win the war of attrition, which is obviously predicated on external parties not interfering. (There's no way Iran isn't aware of how worthless agreements with Western nations are given their personal experiences including this year with The Zionald.)
And if it is a false flag, well, that's what Israel does best and we'll see if the U.S. continues to piss away more billions after the continued post-election mess spread across Ukraine, Yemen and Israel/Iran.
I'm calling false flag, I have no love or trust for the Iranian establishment but I DEEPLY distrust the Israeli establishment.
I'm just waiting for USS Liberty 2.0.
The Nimitz.
RIP to the many sailors that will die on that vessel.
It's altogether very strange. It's very difficult to false flag a missile coming from Iran, assuming it was real (and I can't imagine it not being).
Given that we know Israel heavily infiltrated Iran, possible insider prolonging this now that a lot of command died?
Given how chaotic Iran seems to be, not impossible I guess, but also not very likely. Or maybe they had simple Middle Eastern disregard for time. It won't be the first time someone arrived 7 minutes late.
Does anyone even know when the cease fire was supposed to be in effect? Because after Trumps ceasefire tweet Israel started bombing Teheran. A couple hours later Iran supposedly fired another missile volley.
I get the impression Social Media diplomacy isn't the best idea.
The tweet was mentioning different times at which each country's ceasefire was supposed to begin, with Iran stopping hours before Israel had to stop, which was odd.
I don't know exactly when Iran was supposed to stop, though.
Guess they wanted another Lebanon 'ceasefire'. Israel bombs Lebanon whenever it wants and Hezbollah is not allowed to react.
That would normally be true, but in this case all they have to do is lie and point to a crater from yesterday.
In this case, the hypothetical missile did not even land, so there's not even a need for a crater. Fortunately, Trump has regained his senses and he pointed out that an intercepted missile is absolutely no reason for actions that take lives.
It's not a false flag. Those were real missiles from Iran.
However, Iran said they had the right under the ceasefire to continue firing these last remaining missiles. ... However, they also said they hadn't agreed to a ceasefire. ... However, the Iranian legislature said they agreed to a ceasefire. ... However, Iran doesn't have very good reasons to end the war when they could prolong it to their advantage.
At this point, I think the war has begun spiraling out of control, such that no one is clear what is going on, even the belligerents themselves.
I think Israel and Iran are trying to give themselves Casus Belli to continue the war even after something had been negotiated with the Qataris.
Given how much of Iranians command the Israelis effectively assassinated, is there enough let TO allow stable communications there for a ceasefire to be passed down the chain in an orderly fashion?
That's my point, I have no idea if there is, and I can't say "Yes".
I can't even say "Yes" for Israel because Bibi is a liar and the War Hawks will subvert peace.
Welcome to the reason why over 70 years ago, the US DIDN'T nuke Tokyo.
Because it's hard to negotiate especially a surrender when you turn a lot of their command to ash..
I think you're off base on this. That's not why we didn't nuke Tokyo (also it was still on a target list).
Remember, the worst firebombing raid in human history happened in Tokyo. We killed 150,000 in a single night. The initial death toll in Hiroshima and Nagasaki are far lower than that. That number comes from Robert McNamara having a conversation with Curtis LeMay, who came up with the raid.
We didn't really care what was left of them, but someone would surrender or we were going to kill literally everyone.
We didn't nuke Tokyo because it was better defended.
Killing each negotiator who isn't amenable to your demands is a viable strategy, but it's a ruthless one.
That's the reason they didn't nuke Kyoto (the capital) because killing off the entire government would make it hard to talk to, you know, their government. 🙄
They didn't nuke Tokyo because it had been effectively destroyed already. That one firebomb raid (for 3 days & nights, iirc) killed 150K and literally turned much of the city to ashes.
But Iran is FAR from that situation. IDF did wipe out 12 of the top air defense commanders, causing chaos while they destroyed their air defense network, but there's still hundreds of generals (or the equivalent, like commanding Colonels) out there to give & receive orders.
It's interesting that they don't say the missile was intercepted over or near Israel. Or that it impacted in Israel.
The said they saw a launch towards Israel. Which, in the strictest meaning, could even be true for a launch originating and terminating in Iran. That'd be unlikely to be visible from Israel but...
"a missile... seen from... the West Bank, June 24, 2025" doesn't specifically say it's the missile the narrative is referring to. That's the intended assumption but that photo could have been before the ceasefire went into effect and still June 24 local time.
It's sad that every word in a Reuters article has to be examined for the most unintuitive, but technically correct, interpretation but that's where we are with journalism now.
Edit:
Emphasis last line. Hopefully the US has enough surveillance of its own that it can tell where they originated without relying on foreign intel.
One was absolutely intercepted over Haifa
Iran absolutely launched missiles. But I'm not at all clear that it violated any ceasefire agreement.
Iran is absolutely lying about the missiles, but I have no idea what the agreements actually were with the ceasefire. I'm not even sure the people who launched the missiles knew there was one.
Are you implying, on a KiA board, that journo
scummight not telling the truth?And that is a big reason we should get out and stay out of the middle east
Its almost as if dropping bombs on people is an act of war.
Nu-uh. It was only a military strike. Just as what happens in Ukraine is a special military operation and not a full blown war.
Well, they're all talking to each other, so I assume the truth will be readily apparent in the private back and forth even if we have no idea what's going on.
I actually think the situation is so confused right now that even the belligerents don't know what's happening.
Think about it at an organizational level. When we're talking about time-sensitive communication, the organization may still lurch in one direction or another even after the C-Suite has made a decision. Not only is there a lag time in communication, but also in re-directing pre-scheduled efforts, and this assumes zero subversion.
I think Iran and Israel agreed to something with the Qataris, but we don't know what it is, and I think it's clear that the chain of command in Iran is going to be very confused given the damage it's received, and any pro-war sentiment on the Israeli or American side is going to be very subversive.