All of the headlines suggest The Little Mermaid is a huge hit, but this isn’t remotely true.
The 2019 Lion King remake made $191 million domestic on opening weekend.
The TLM remake made $118 million domestic on opening weekend.
The Lion King finished at $1.6 billion with two thirds of that being international.
The Little Mermaid only took in $68 million international on opening weekend.
Napkin math says Mermaid will make $350ish million total domestic. If international percentage holds, that’s only another $200ish million.
Projected total? $550 million. On a $250 million budget, that’s a gigantic flop.
Good. Hate to be so negative but I’m sick of these idiots thinking this is creative
Genuine question: How much would it have to make to not be a flop? I'm not familiar with industry expectations, but my uneducated instinct is that a profit a little over the size of the budget isn't terrible. What total/budget ratio is considered a success?
2x cost is the basic 'ok break even' accepted number, cause whatever the budget of the film is, they spent on advertising too, as a general rule
Exceptions:
But the theatres take a cut of ticket sales too. So it's actually a bit more than that. But this changes based on dates, and it can be 0 in the first weeks if the movie is a guarenteed hit, and they just want people in the door to sell popcorn to. Star wars I for example, if you own a theatre you needed that film to be showing, even if you were to earn nothing from sales. Easier to just ignore the varying theatre's cut as a result, just round down to 2x.
Speaking of star wars, you also then have knock-on effects when it comes to specific franchises and series and merchendise. Look at how VIII affected future projects, even if it technically met the 2x threshold, how did it then affect future projects and merchandising? So you sometimes need to look at the next film to consider it a success.
Other exceptions are expected flops and unexpected hits. When your 60k blairewitch project starts going viral, you pump a few million into marketing, or if you've got an absolute stinker finished, just dump it to recoup something, market budget gets cut in these cases sometimes.
So there are a few ways to look at it. But the rule of thumb is '2x budget', because you need to consider the marketing budget also, that's the basic number, if you ignore franchises and merchandise and films that defy expectations.
I wonder how much they save on marketing by race-baiting fans and critics to stir up press?
I'm skeptical that there would be much return on that strategy. Leftists tend not to patronize the stuff they destroy. Maybe the buzz it creates would help but I don't imagine it helps much.
While they probably could save on marketing through that method, the sheer amount of promotions and ads everywhere says they don't hold back regardless of controversy stirring.
As u/Vicious_snek7 said, 2x published budget is usually the break even point. Paul Feig is on record saying his $150 million ghostbusters reboot needed to clear $500 million to secure a sequel, so make of that what you will.
It’s important to realize, however, that investors are not happy with a $500 million gamble that returns $50 million in profit. When a studio puts up half a billion dollars, they want $750 million back, minimum. Not every big bet is going to turn out, so you need your “sure things” to cover your losses and then some.
In the case of Disney’s live action remakes, the bar is even higher. Lion King made $1.66 billion and Beauty and the Beast made $1.25 billion, both on similar budgets. If The Little Mermaid lands at that $550-600 million mark, it’s a huge disappointment. Even at $750-850 million, executives will be asking some pointed questions.
Yep. I read an article a while back about silicon valley guys who had started a company and been funded by VCs. They had opportunities to sell the companies at large multiples but were shut down by the VCs who owned majority stakes in their company. They eventually ran out of money, couldn't sell at all and were stuck with the debt they'd never pay back. Groups and people with that kind of money aren't content with just making all of it back.
They will learn nothing from The Black Little Mermaid, even if it does end up underperforming.
I like "Lil' Mermaid"
Still way more than it deserves.
But how much of that was legitimate sales and how much theatres being bought out to boost sales numbers?
i dont think it will make as much internationally since a large part of that is china and china hates black people.
How do these movies cost so much to make? For just a few million I could get some real talent together. And hire writers that aren't shit.
I'm going to assume various unions really drive the price up. And pretty much every movie is very special effects heavy now which probably drives the cost up.
All they had to do was to put a decent looking ginger in her role, and it would be making hundreds of millions in China.
Yup. Imagine a single woke casting decision costing you a quarter billion dollars.
They only made $4 million dollars in China. But globally I would not call it a flop, as you said, the Little Mermaid made $300 millions profit, that is not a flop.
"'The Little Mermaid' could top out in China with as little as $4 million."
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/china-box-office-fast-x-the-little-mermaid-1235502764/
No. The entire global box office for Mermaid’s opening weekend was only 68m. This is only about half of domestic, which is an unmitigated disaster for Disney. The Lion King, by comparison, had a 191m domestic open and 2x that internationally.
Again, Mermaid is on track to land somewhere between losing money and turning a small profit. That is hundreds of millions of dollars short of what Disney expects for these remakes.
Ok I did not understand it then but the bottom line is that success or failure it is going to be measured by Disney on whether they turn a profit or not.
This is unfortunately cope.
It really isn't. As others have said, rule of thumb is 2x to 2.5x the budget to get to breaking even (including marketing, etc.) But the studio only banks between 50% (domestically) and 25% (in China) of the box office. So a $500m box office would mean a $250m loss for Disney on a $250m film like TLM.
This graphic paints an even bleaker picture, but even going off of the accepted rules of thumb, this is a disaster for Disney.
Edit: to bolster my point, even pReddits boxoffice sub is saying that the film will need between 600-700m to start turning a profit, due to the theater cut.
If it was a money loss, they couldn't afford to keep doing it. With the pull they get + ESG funds they are making a killing.
This is the equivalent of "the walls are closing in" or "tick tock" from Hannity. Still cope.
Is this a serious post?
Disney can afford to keep doing it for years. They are the biggest entertainment company in history.
You yourself are saying they rely on ESG funds. Those would only be necessary if the product isn’t generating enough money by itself. That’s what I said in the first place.
Your arguments are terrible.
Nothing I wrote was complicated, but I’ll dumb it down for you anyways.
Lion and Mermaid both cost 250.
Lion made 191 domestic on first weekend. Mermaid made 118.
Lion finished at 543. Mermaid tracking for 348.
Lion finished globally at 1630. For Lion, international = 2x domestic.
For Mermaid, international opening = 68. Only 0.57x domestic. Mermaid tracking for 546 globally.
546 is a much smaller number than 1630.
And this is 2023 dollars vs 2017.
To add more, 250 budget means anywhere from around 500 to 700 to break even. 546 is a huge flop and probably means they lost money.
If they are losing money on all these how can they afford to crank out so many so quickly?
The answer is simple: they aren't. As always they find a formula that works and they milk it dry.
This isn't meant as an insult, it's just that we need to adjust our mentality in order to combat this shit. Sitting and thinking they will sink any moment is not productive and counter to reality.
They're a multibillion dollar conglomerate that is also, as you pointed out, getting ESG money. They can sustain losses for quite a while. Look how long it took for Buzzfeed News and Vice to finally declare bankruptcy, and they're no Disney.
What do you suggest besides a siege? Layoffs and bankruptcies are now, finally, ravaging our original targets (unethical journalist outlets) after years of hard work on our part. The mainstream has absolutely noticed the Bud Light disaster, causing Target to make an (admittedly bullshit, half-hearted) attempt to walk back, despite ESG mandates. DIS stock is now down 20% in the past year, or 11% in the past 5 years, and that doesn't account for inflation. Genuinely, what do you suggest?
Vice got a Golden Parachute from Soros and co.
The real issue in my mind is that essentially, just like the "too big to fail" banks it's ultimately taxpayer money that goes to feed this propaganda. Real change will only come with monetary and tax reform and those need to be primary targets.
Slicing off a hydra head might feel good for a bit, until 3 more grow back. Not to say targets of opportunity like bud light aren't good efforts, but they aren't the heart of the issue.
Hmm, we should stage a takeover of one of the major parties in an attempt to do that. We could call it MAGA or something.
A widespread preference cascade is at the heart of the issue, though. We'll never be able to pass the political reforms we want without it.
I don't think tax or monetary reform was ever on the Maga agenda, or anyone's besides the Paul's.
Auditing the fed is still the best first step, and with inflation soaring it's the perfect time for a renewed push.
I mean, a MAGA rep might have some small possibility of attaching something like that to a bill. RINOs and democrats definitely won't.
You are responding to math with empty platitudes. What part of “this movie is on track to lose money” do you not understand?
How can they release so many flops so quickly? Because Avatar 2 made two billion dollars. Because Endgame made 2 billion dollars. Because Lion King made 1.66 billion dollars. Because Beauty and the Beast made 1.23 billion dollars. Disney is the biggest entertainment company in history. They can absorb years of flops.