China on Wednesday published its first white paper on Taiwan since Xi Jinping came to power, refusing to rule out force in its bid for unification and blaming the island’s “independence seeking” ruling party for deepening the dispute with Beijing. The paper, which stated China “will tolerate no foreign interference in Taiwan,” comes days after China held unprecedented military drills around the island in the wake of a visit to Taipei by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Buckle up boys, it's tankie time. https://archive.ph/rRDyb
Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China's complete reunification is a shared aspiration of all the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation. It is indispensable for the realization of China's rejuvenation. It is also a historic mission of the Communist Party of China (CPC). The CPC, the Chinese government, and the Chinese people have striven for decades to achieve this goal.
Nobody cares except communist hard liners and their simps. Also as a fyi, the CCP recently decided that everyone should call it the "CPC" now instead of the traditional CCP, so if you see anyone online using the "CPC" label, they are outing themselves as a tankie. The CCP's name in chinese is 中國共產黨 which breaks down to 中國 = Zhōngguó = China & 共產 = gòng chǎn = communist & 黨 = dǎng = party. So literally "China Communist Party".
The Chinese government has published two previous white papers on Taiwan. One was The Taiwan Question and Reunification of China in August 1993, and the other was The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue in February 2000. These two white papers provided a comprehensive and systematic elaboration of the basic principles and policies regarding the resolution of the Taiwan question. This new white paper is being released to reiterate the fact that Taiwan is part of China, to demonstrate the resolve of the CPC and the Chinese people and their commitment to national reunification, and to emphasize the position and policies of the CPC and the Chinese government in the new era.
In other words, to threaten and posture.
I. Taiwan Is Part of China - This Is an Indisputable Fact. Taiwan has belonged to China since ancient times. This statement has a sound basis in history and jurisprudence.
In reality, Imperial China basically ignored Taiwan most of the time, and Taiwan ended up as a pirate haven. [The Japanese eventually invaded Taiwan to retaliate over some Taiwanese headhunters.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_invasion_of_Taiwan_(1874)) Later, Japan made Taiwan a colony, which it remained until the end of WW2 when the Nationalists took over.
We are one China, and Taiwan is part of China. This is an indisputable fact supported by history and the law. Taiwan has never been a state; its status as part of China is unalterable. Any attempt to distort these facts and dispute or deny the one-China principle will end in failure.
So this is pure delusion, just like Putin's little rant right before he invaded Ukraine, and is stated for the same purpose (to rationalize military aggression against a sovereign state).
First, the one-China principle must be upheld, and no individual or force should be allowed to separate Taiwan from China.
They're already separate, and the "One China" policy is a fraud meant to placate the CCP.
Second, it is imperative to strive for the wellbeing of all Chinese people, including those in Taiwan, and to realize the aspirations of all Chinese people for a better life.
By bombing them and starving them into submission with a blockade? lol.
Fourth, it is necessary to have the courage and skill to fight against any force that attempts to undermine China's sovereignty and territorial integrity or stands in the way of its reunification. Fifth, extensive unity and solidarity must be upheld to mobilize all factors to fight against any force that would divide the country, and pool strengths to advance national reunification.
Just threats and the CCP hard liners wanting to full mobilize for any war. Good luck with that.
We maintain that after peaceful reunification, Taiwan may continue its current social system and enjoy a high degree of autonomy in accordance with the law. The two social systems will develop side by side for a long time to come.
Everyone saw how that worked out for Hong Kong. We all know it's a fraud now.
Separatism will plunge Taiwan into the abyss and bring nothing but disaster to the island.
Annnnnnd there's the threats.
Use of force would be the last resort taken under compelling circumstances. We will only be forced to take drastic measures to respond to the provocation of separatist elements or external forces should they ever cross our red lines.
Like Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan.
The US should abide by the one-China principle, deal with Taiwan-related issues in a prudent and proper manner, stand by its previous commitments, and stop supporting Taiwan separatists.
"separatists".
"In a biannual update to its surveys on core political attitudes in Taiwan, National Chengchi University's Election Study Center (ESC) found only 1.3 percent of respondents wanted unification with mainland China "as soon as possible,""
Anyway basically the white paper was almost entirely empty platitudes and the same old bullshit.
China isn't in a position they can even attempt an invasion, people keep saying "look at Ukraine, look at Ukraine " I get that but there's two major differences:
Taiwan has manufacturing that is HEAVILY sort after
Taiwan is an island, surrounded by an ocean
So if China bombs Taiwan it risks losing all that manufacturing they could use as leverage against other countries
A amphibious assault would fail as they don't have the landing craft, Naval support required to achieve that, not to mention they start, Taiwan immediately uses those giant howitzers they have on an island nearby to bombard their bases, cities, anything that moves etc.
So this isn't a Hong Kong as they have firepower, distance, natural barriers and leverage in not bombing them, but it just provides time. So what they need is more military supplies, even more firepower and defenses and allied forces (a fully armed, rebuilt Japanese military).
Just as a FYI, while this is still somewhat true at the moment, the CCP has invested massively into amphibious assault craft in recent years, and can now successfully land about 30-50k troops in an invasion, along with hundreds of tanks.
Example of new capability is a new class of 40,000 ton amphib carriers, with 3 of them coming online in 2021 and 2022 alone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_075_landing_helicopter_dock
They are also continuing to build a 25,000 ton class amphib ship, with 8 online now: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_071_amphibious_transport_dock
They also have about 30 heavy Type 72 tank landing ships.
Finally, they have hundreds of smaller landing craft, still larger than the landing craft used on D-day.
Mass production of D-Day style smaller landing craft would be child's play for China. They could make thousands in a year. Right now they are focusing on building out the high end amphib support ships that take years to build, so that they can "sprint" and pump out the smaller ships very quickly when they are close to invading. They also have an enormous fleet of large civilian ferries they could press into service.
All that said, obviously they wouldn't win if they tried to attack now. The bigger threat is that they seize Taiwan's outlying islands like Kinmen, Matsu, and Pratas, and try to blockade Taiwan.
All this will be a war almost entirely of naval and air power. One of the big impacts of Ukraine is that it showed the world that SAMs were actually highly effective. A lot of people thought SAMs were trash because they never stopped the US, but the US is a special case.
I'm just a dude but amphibious landings are very difficult, and haven't really been done since the 2nd world war, and off the top of my head the last "successful" landing was the Korean war. Every other amphibious invasion has been a failure or a victory in shambles since.
Logistically landing an army and getting them ready to fight is a challenge that it's not guaranteed that the Chinese army and Navy could pull off at all. Even if they were landing in friendly territory.
First of all:
The Taiwan straight is 180 kilometres. That's a long way of open ocean that cannot, in any way, be hidden. There will be absolutely no element of surprise what so ever.
Secondly, the ships that carry men and material across the 180 km straight, aren't the ones that will be pulling up to the beach. They will have to transfer the entire army from a large boat to many smaller boats. Refer back to point 1 on the ludicrousness of this situation when you consider the prepared defenses.
I don't really have to go any further because those elements alone will take a truly massive discrepancy in force between the two, as well as impreccable levels of competencies amongst the Chinese forces from top to bottom.
Take D-Day, the air landings were strewn basically randomly, no command and control whatsoever but they were able to be effective because units took the initiative largely of their own accord. Do you think chinese corporals and sergeants are going to do the same?
There's also another side to this, China's military has size on it's side but completely unproven. They've been used mostly against their own citizens that don't fight back. Will they be able to hold their nerve when they see all their buddies being blown up
The west's military, although being subverted, still has veterans who have served under fire whether in the middle east or even wars like the Falklands. These veterans are critical for militaries as they keep the younger less experienced soldiers in line when under fire. China don't have any of them.
In fact it's worse than that. China's been fighting Indian regulars along the Tibetan border in a slow-boil border dispute, and the PLA is coming off badly in these engagements.
Granted, India's not a slouch - they'd have been ploughed under by Pakistan long since if they were - but not opposition that someone as good as China thinks they are should struggle with.
Right, it doesn't stop us because we still have technological and manufacturing superiority. China's trying to catch up but a lot but it's still Chinese made shit. Reliability is going to be a huge issue for them.
South Korea has a conservative government and Japan has a nationalist prime minister. I know they're not exactly allies with Taiwan but they also see China as an existential threat.
I think this is the major problem with your assessment. You're looking at the possibility of China using the economy as a weapon. You're not looking at Taiwan as a competitor to China. If Taiwan goes under, China has all the economic leverage within it's own borders.
Shelling the microprocessor factories might be the best possible opening gambit for China. By destroying the economic premise for getting involved, China's use of bribery and influence might be very effective at keeping countries out.
Actually that's a double edged sword, as that relies on a very pragmatic view that if the economic reasons for defending Taiwan is gone, China can bribe or scare other countries from getting involved.
A lot of Asian countries could see that as a 'crossing the rubicon' moment that they effectively attack an independent country and decide while they have their hands full with attacking Taiwan, to hit them as hard as possible or they're next. And China haven't really helped any case to suggest they wouldn't try to seize more territory if they manage to take Taiwan.
I think the issue is that although it is a Crossing-The-Rubicon moment, that's a hell of a crossing if the US refuses to involve itself. I feel like the other Asian countries, as I said elsewhere, would want to test and see if Taiwan could actually hold their own long enough, so that they could exploit China's vulnerability.
They would blockade instead of invade.
I mean, it's the CCP. You don't think they'd be psychotic enough to nuke someone to "justify" the invasion?
Surprised they havnt subverted taiwan and made taiwan super faggy and tranny.
roc is the only legitimate china
west taiwan is not best taiwan
East China Best China
I don't understand why so many right-wing people are so motivated to defend the interests of the country that wants them broke, dead, their children raped and brainwashed and thinks it's funny.
...And to clarify, the country I'm talking about is the US.
Leftist NPCs get daily updates to keep them on track with current_thing in current_year.
Rightist NPCs are still running the same major version released in the 1890s, with a patch to think the 50s were good and to add 'Reagan' and '9/11' to their vocabulary.
There are no Right NPCs. We are free thinkers. We don't have a hive mind.
You must be the only Conservative™ in your social circle.
Everyone can be an NPC from time to time. It takes self-awareness to recognize when you're doing it and break the loop. The Right being dissidents and anti-collectivist are simply far less likely to succumb to that mentality.
anti-collectivist, individualist, belief in freedom and free speech, anti-conformist, rejection of "political correctness", distrust of authority, etc
there is a lot about the Right that completely contradicts everything about the Left that causes leftist NPCs to exist.
getting riled up by right wing media doesn't make you an NPC because Tucker still has to CONVINCE you, and people on the Right don't just blindly accept what they're told.
Would you not count Qtards as NPCs?
Still more self-aware than a leftist.
Arch is a leftist.
Defending Taiwan isn't "defending US interests", it is defending freedom and democracy while crushing communism.
Oh boy, do I have bad news for you.
Where can I get some of that democracy? My presidential election just got stolen and those who protested it have been locked up without due process. I hope whoever is defending taiwan will come defend me next.
It didn't, though, and the libtards were saying this about Hillary 2016-2020
Ah, yes, most secure election in history. Got any more room temperature takes?
honestly people like you are an embarrassment to the Right
That embarrassment you feel when questioning a regime narrative, that was put there on purpose by the regime. Those who are unwilling to be cringe will never be based.
Democracy is gay. I can meet halfway on the freedom part.
So do you want China to win or not? Are we doing this /pol/tier contrarian bullshit again?
It doesn't matter.
Taiwan doesn't want those things. Besides, defending Taiwan keeps China from having economic hegemony over technology manufacturing.
You don't let communists control information technology for the same reason you don't let them control food.
TSMC is more than welcome to move their fabs to the United States if they want the United State's military protection.
It's their best hope. Binkov's assessment, frankly makes a lot of sense. The full power of the Chinese government being brought to bear against Taiwan really means that Taiwan is in real fucking danger. Unlike with Ukraine, I'm not so sure that Taiwan can rely on western financial investment or embezzlement to bail them out. WEF goblins are not invested in Russia the way that they are invested in the success of China.
A year warfare without US intervention could absolutely bring Taiwan to it's knees, and they really still do not have the level of mobilization and armamentation that they need.
Make no mistake, the US will stay out of that war if the Chinese pay off the right people. That means Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are the only real allies that Taiwan can depend on. And either none of them join, or all of them join. South Korea and Japan might want to save Taiwan, but if Taiwan can't prove that she can stand alone, they aren't going to risk provoking a larger war with China.
In fact, that is what the US is going to be doing: pretending to play "peace maker" and trying to "prevent the war from escalating into a regional conflict". Likely by removing the 7th fleet from the area of operations to "reduce tensions".
Taiwan has a chance if she can last for a good while until either a new regime takes power in the US, or until she can convince some of the other states to join. Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan are all classic Chinese enemies and would love to give her a bloody nose, and (frankly) Vietnam's the most brazen of all of them. India won't want to start a full-scale conflict with China, but economic pressure would certainly help. I think Indonesia is the most over-looked option here. Indonesia's issues with China's expansion, and the prevalence of Islam in Indonesia, could lead some of the population to see it as a Jihad against both Communism, and as a reprisal to the Uyghur genocide.
This means that if Taiwan can be blockaded, which is actually likely if the US won't get involved, she might actually be lost. If she can keep the seas open long enough, and fight hard enough, she might get enough tactical support from other countries to keep the war going long enough to regain political support from the US.
Let me just say that Binkov is a total idiot in general. All he does is make a list of how much stuff each side has and then he says whoever has more stuff would win. That is not how wars work at all. If it was, Israel would have lost all its wars. Germany would have gotten annihilated in Barbarossa, etc. The whole idea that you can ignore strategy, tactics, doctrine, and other factors, and just fight a war on a spreadsheet, is very commie/Russian.
Binkov over-estimates how effective chinese long range missile strikes would be. We confirmed from Russia firing thousands of missiles at Ukraine that these strikes are not very effective. Large static targets that cannot be repaired can get taken out, but it's easy enough to simply not present such targets in a war. Airfields can be repaired easily and hardened against missile strikes.
Binkov simply ignores the fact that Taiwanese SAMs are superior to the PLAAF. Ukraine, with far inferior Soviet era SAMs, and fewer of them, managed to totally stop the Russian air force (which is technologically superior to the PLAAAF) after a few days of inflicting unsustainable losses. Taiwan has many hundreds of PATRIOT SAM rounds, and other sophisticated long range SAMs like its Sky Bow III. It also has a lot of medium range systems, Sea Sparrows, and thousands of Stingers & Sidewinders, which would make it impossible for the PLAAF to operate over Taiwan without suffering unsustainable losses.
So the PLAAF will be forced to operate at stand-off ranges and will not be able to carry out strikes with things like laser guided bombs. Cruise missiles will for the most part get shot down.
Any PLAN ships trying to enforce a blockade outside their air cover in the Strait, so they'd be highly vulnerable to Taiwanese F-16 Viper sorties launching Harpoons at them. In fact, I submit that the PLAN simply doesn't have the capability of either operating within F-16 range and surviving or fighting off Harpoon missiles. Their only cope would be to try to operate far away from Taiwan, but the PLAN doesn't have the ships to cover that much ocean. Only the USN can pull off something like that. China's carrier group is still a joke at this point, and will be for some time. It would not be able to survive a Taiwanese F16 sortie, let alone multiple waves firing dozens of Harpoons.
This is all academic, though, because no other nation would bow down and submit to any Chinese blockade of Taiwan. The US, Japan, Australia, and others, would simply defy the blockade right away, and the Chinese would back down out of fear of getting ganged up on and getting their shit pushed in.
All that said, I agree with you that Taiwan would be in real danger if it gets complacent, as every year that passes, the military spending gap between China and Taiwan widens. EVENTUALLY the Chinese will fix their weaknesses and become a much more dangerous threat. That is why I want the US to confront China NOW and force their hand rather than waiting until China becomes far more dangerous in 5-10 years.
I don't agree with you at all that the US will "stay out" of anything. That's nonsense. I'm American. No Republican would cuck out Taiwan to China. Almost no Democrat would, either, since Democrats slavishly follow polls, and polls overwhelmingly favor helping Taiwan. US support for Taiwan was at its highest level ever when polled in 2021 and a strong majority favor sending in the US Navy to shut down any attempt at a Chinese blockade. If any US President tried to limp dick Taiwan, people like me would be in the streets, and we would raise hell. The fact that Taiwan is the semiconductor capital of the world means the media is saying 24/7 that Taiwan is indispensable to the US economy. So I couldn't disagree with you more. Most Americans never even heard of Ukraine until this year, and yet they overwhelmingly rallied to support it. Support for Taiwan is MUCH stronger than that.
So you don't watch his videos.
No you didn't. Ukrainian Air Defense was crippled, allowing for helicopter strikes into the country. What stopped Russian Air Dominance was an infinite supply of infantry based anti-aircraft weapons. None of which will be sent to Taiwan. Not from the US, not from the UK, not from Canada.
Never underestimate the level of losses Communists are prepared to take. Russia lost 20 million against the Germans. Vietnam lost 5 million against the Americans. Russia and China lost 180,000 against each other. China lost over 300,000 against the Americans. And we don't want to even think about the Cultural Revolution.
Communists are prepared to kill every man, woman, and child on Earth to solidify their power.
Worse, there is a practical purpose to killing people. It drives down the costs of the welfare state, and creates political stability for those that don't deploy (being kept loyal). Under such conditions, the losses that China may be prepared to take could be absolutely astronomical.
Taiwan will only be able to support piracy until their treasuries run dry. After that, no one is coming who isn't willing to fight China head on. The only people that would even consider doing it by themselves, are the vietnamese.
You've got it backwards. The chinese economy is already starting to fall apart. If they want a war to secure themselves politically, they can't wait a decade. China needs this war sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, the US is damn near combat ineffective due to it's political situation. It's already basically out of the fight. A couple phone calls to DC, and they aren't coming in until at least 2024. After the midterms, they'll probably be a Republican house, a Democratic senate, and a Democratic president. Starting a war early in 2023 is actually a good option, since it should be long enough to keep the Americans from intervening until the situation is dramatically different.
You could say that about a lot of things, like anything related to survivors of 9/11. But we know that's wrong. The only thing that matters is political utility, and personal finance. The finance and political utility are controlled by China. If the Republicans were in power, there is a risk that the anti-War / Libertarian factions might consider staying out of it; but there is a 100% chance that they would be accused of "starting WW3" by the entirety of the Left. If the Democrats were in power, their bread is buttered by China, sometimes literally. They will not go to war to save Taiwan.
I do watch his videos, actually
UKR air defense was not crippled and is still going strong. Russian aircraft are too scared to fly in UKR airspace at all, they only fly around the border, fire off their missiles, and run away.
UKR MANPADS mean nothing to high altitude aircraft, so you're wrong.
Taiwan has thousands of stinger missiles.
Communists in modern times can't take unlimited casualties like the Soviets could under Stalin. Their people would revolt. Russia can't even mobilize.
I don't think the Chinese economy is going to fall apart without outside pressure. It had bad shocks in 2015 and still recovered fine, which it always will as long as foreign trade supports it.
The MANPADS thing essentially played into Russia's own sub-optimal ordnance mix. With low quantities of stand-off weapons the Russian air force is having to fly into MANPAD range to get it's shots - of unguided weapons - off. Don't know if the same thing applies to China.
Russia can easily fly outside of MANPADs range for all its air missions. Russia has plenty of things like laser guided bombs and other munitions it could drop/launch from high altitude.
The reason Russia does not do this, is that if they flew high, they'd get killed by Ukrainian S-300s, which are still operating and firing. Russia killed a few, but Ukraine has plenty more. And soon Ukraine is going to be getting stuff like SLAMRAAMs so Russia isn't going to be able to hope it can ever get into a position to have free reign over Ukraine flying high.
Russian aircraft did get to bully places like Mariupol with high altitude bombing attacks because it knew there were no SAMs in the area. It could also do some attacks on the edge of the Severodonetsk salient because the Russians knew that UKR would keep SAMs away from that area since moving them up would make them too vulnerable to artillery. So we know Russia fears UKR SAMs and we know Russia will use its air power in situations where it knows UKR can't provide SAM coverage.
Russia has plenty of standoff weapon and has been using them. We don't have video of them doing so on twitter because they don't enter UKR territory to do so.
Doctrine if you can't fly high because of SAM threats, is to fly very low so you can use terrain masking and the curvature of the earth to hide from SAMs. It just so happens that this exposes you to MANPADS. So to mitigate the MANPADs threat, Russian aircraft generally don't fly over the front line, they just fly close enough to fire their weapons inaccurately, and then the turn away and spam flares.