Not just vaguely. Although the 'routed' bit is a bit retarded.
This is turning into one hell of a disaster if it keeps going because there is absolutely no way for the US to win this. Honestly it already is a disaster. There won't be any regime change and a ground invasion is pretty much impossible now and even if it would be possible it would turn into an absolute bloodbath. The topography of Iran is as bad as Afghanistans for any invader and unlike Afghanistan the US will be up against an experienced and well equipped professional military. Not a bunch of sheep farmers.
Also Iran has the ability to go scorched earth on the Middle Eastern oilfields. This has the potential to escalate into something much much bigger which is probably Israels goal anyway. Unless they're actually so retarded that they didn't see this coming.
The ultimate objective of the US/Israel is regime change, but is that truly viewed as a necessary objective? If the regime doesn't fall, then airpower will probably kill another 30 generals and a few more bunkers and raise the Mission Accomplished banner. Basically, that would be a replay of the Yemeni air operation, except on a much wider scale.
The Iranian victory condition seems basically the same as Yemen's. Air defense is completely ineffective, but absorb casualties from regular bombings and remain standing until the opponent goes home.
The Iranian victory condition seems basically the same as Yemen's. Air defense is completely ineffective, but absorb casualties from regular bombings and remain standing until the opponent goes home.
Only that Iran is shooting back. Hard. And it's hurting. Bad. The Houthis already managed to bankrupt ports in Israel and caused significant financial damage. Iran is on an entirely different level. You don't see much footage of it because the censorship is quite drastic in Israel and it'll probably increase significantly in the Gulf states too.
The US is utterly destroying their relationships with the Gulf states by leaving them hanging while draining their munitions stockpiles (especially AD) in record time which they can't replenish in any timely manner.
Gas and oil prices are spiking. The longer this continues the higher they get and if Iran at any point decides to actually attack the oil and gas infrastructure of the Gulf states the world economy is in for a VERY VERY bad time for quite a while.
Also Iranian AD isn't completely ineffective. They're shooting down drones quite regularly and the narrative that the US planes were shot down by friendly fire is questionable to say the least.
And nobody knows how many US soldiers have actually been killed. I expect it to be far more than just the six they admitted to.
So to summarize the US drains their stockpiles, destroys important relationships, sacrifices their own soldiers and military infrastructure, crashes the world economy for a few dead generals and officials that get replaced by the radicalized younger generations. And the global Shia population is extremely pissed off because they killed their equivalent to the Pope.
Trump is fucked. There is no way to get out of this mess even semi-cleanly like the last time. So where is this going to lead?
Also Iranian AD isn't completely ineffective. They're shooting down drones quite regularly and the narrative that the US planes were shot down by friendly fire is questionable to say the least.
Questionable? They were shot down over Kuwait. If Iran is such a wizard they can shoot down F-15s in safe airspace, they should be slaughtering them when they actually fly over Iran. It was Kuwaiti air defense.
Wake me up when Israeli crews get shot down in Iran and we have to stage a ground op to rescue them. The Israelis have bombed Iran with American jets for decades.
Only that Iran is shooting back. Hard. And it's hurting. Bad. The Houthis already managed to bankrupt ports in Israel and caused significant financial damage. Iran is on an entirely different level. You don't see much footage of it because the censorship is quite drastic in Israel and it'll probably increase significantly in the Gulf states too.
The US is utterly destroying their relationships with the Gulf states by leaving them hanging while draining their munitions stockpiles (especially AD) in record time which they can't replenish in any timely manner.
I agree that this is likely, at least, but it's difficult to assess now. We'll see what blocking the Strait of Hormuz does to the global economy. AFAIK the Houthis only blocked Israel/US-connected ships, not oil tankers. However, with respect to the diplomatic effects, countries tend to harden their stance against their attacker regardless of the cause of the conflict. This is a problem for both Iran and the US.
Iran also has the potential to go gloves off and attack oil infrastructure. Not sure why they haven't done that yet, with Khomeini and Ahmedinejad getting killed.
Kuwait isn't safe airspace. It doesn't border on Iran but it might as well. There is no way to know for sure who actually shot them down. But it is pretty likely that IF Iran is responsible that the US would deny it if they can plausibly do so.
Iran also has the potential to go gloves off and attack oil infrastructure. Not sure why they haven't done that yet, with Khomeini and Ahmedinejad getting killed.
No reason to go scorched earth if you don't have to yet.
By the way Ahmadinejad hasn't been a relevant political figure for quite some time. He wasn't allowed to run for president in the last three elections. Also it's Khamenei. Khomenei has been dead since 89'.
At current claimed rate of expenditures, the US forces in the region will be dry of defensive missiles inside of a week. Meanwhile, the Iranians set up their offensive systems to revert to local control if leadership dropped out of the loop.
That's why we threw in the towel with the Houthis. It seems like we might do the same with Iran, but a logistical pothole is hardly a devastating loss for the US.
It very much is a devastating loss of say, the Lincoln were sunk.
Nevermind that we've been having huge problems with sustainment of munitions thanks to throwing away two decades worth of stockpiles in the goddamn Ukraine.
I'd say the other risk is the fact Iran went out of their way to hit their neighbours beyond just US bases.
Having your command structure gutted with targeted strikes, diminished missile launching capabilities and no navy only coral reefs isn't good when every nation around you wants to jump you for attacking them.
Yeah, but who cares? Those other nations are bigger shitholes than Iran and, since Bidens's endowment, probably have less contemporary equipment than Afghanistan.
I just re-read it and I see nothing implying anything about Iran's moral status.
He's obviously not a Muslim... in the past, I've had arguments with him because he argued that the Germans in WW2 held soldiers accountable for war crimes, while the allies did not.
Not just vaguely. Although the 'routed' bit is a bit retarded.
This is turning into one hell of a disaster if it keeps going because there is absolutely no way for the US to win this. Honestly it already is a disaster. There won't be any regime change and a ground invasion is pretty much impossible now and even if it would be possible it would turn into an absolute bloodbath. The topography of Iran is as bad as Afghanistans for any invader and unlike Afghanistan the US will be up against an experienced and well equipped professional military. Not a bunch of sheep farmers.
Also Iran has the ability to go scorched earth on the Middle Eastern oilfields. This has the potential to escalate into something much much bigger which is probably Israels goal anyway. Unless they're actually so retarded that they didn't see this coming.
The ultimate objective of the US/Israel is regime change, but is that truly viewed as a necessary objective? If the regime doesn't fall, then airpower will probably kill another 30 generals and a few more bunkers and raise the Mission Accomplished banner. Basically, that would be a replay of the Yemeni air operation, except on a much wider scale.
The Iranian victory condition seems basically the same as Yemen's. Air defense is completely ineffective, but absorb casualties from regular bombings and remain standing until the opponent goes home.
Only that Iran is shooting back. Hard. And it's hurting. Bad. The Houthis already managed to bankrupt ports in Israel and caused significant financial damage. Iran is on an entirely different level. You don't see much footage of it because the censorship is quite drastic in Israel and it'll probably increase significantly in the Gulf states too.
The US is utterly destroying their relationships with the Gulf states by leaving them hanging while draining their munitions stockpiles (especially AD) in record time which they can't replenish in any timely manner.
Gas and oil prices are spiking. The longer this continues the higher they get and if Iran at any point decides to actually attack the oil and gas infrastructure of the Gulf states the world economy is in for a VERY VERY bad time for quite a while.
Also Iranian AD isn't completely ineffective. They're shooting down drones quite regularly and the narrative that the US planes were shot down by friendly fire is questionable to say the least.
And nobody knows how many US soldiers have actually been killed. I expect it to be far more than just the six they admitted to.
So to summarize the US drains their stockpiles, destroys important relationships, sacrifices their own soldiers and military infrastructure, crashes the world economy for a few dead generals and officials that get replaced by the radicalized younger generations. And the global Shia population is extremely pissed off because they killed their equivalent to the Pope.
Trump is fucked. There is no way to get out of this mess even semi-cleanly like the last time. So where is this going to lead?
Left wing victories at the polls, increased Islamic terrorism in the West, back to the Right in a few years.
Same as always.
Questionable? They were shot down over Kuwait. If Iran is such a wizard they can shoot down F-15s in safe airspace, they should be slaughtering them when they actually fly over Iran. It was Kuwaiti air defense.
Wake me up when Israeli crews get shot down in Iran and we have to stage a ground op to rescue them. The Israelis have bombed Iran with American jets for decades.
I agree that this is likely, at least, but it's difficult to assess now. We'll see what blocking the Strait of Hormuz does to the global economy. AFAIK the Houthis only blocked Israel/US-connected ships, not oil tankers. However, with respect to the diplomatic effects, countries tend to harden their stance against their attacker regardless of the cause of the conflict. This is a problem for both Iran and the US.
Iran also has the potential to go gloves off and attack oil infrastructure. Not sure why they haven't done that yet, with Khomeini and Ahmedinejad getting killed.
Kuwait isn't safe airspace. It doesn't border on Iran but it might as well. There is no way to know for sure who actually shot them down. But it is pretty likely that IF Iran is responsible that the US would deny it if they can plausibly do so.
No reason to go scorched earth if you don't have to yet.
By the way Ahmadinejad hasn't been a relevant political figure for quite some time. He wasn't allowed to run for president in the last three elections. Also it's Khamenei. Khomenei has been dead since 89'.
What I don't see most people talking about, on TD but even here, is the supply portion of this.
The Iranians have expended 8% or less of their long range stockpile. We've expended 45% of ours, and even more of our counter air.
Since the decapitation strike succeeded at killing political leadership but wasn't relevant to defeating the fighting capability of the enemy, well.
At current claimed rate of expenditures, the US forces in the region will be dry of defensive missiles inside of a week. Meanwhile, the Iranians set up their offensive systems to revert to local control if leadership dropped out of the loop.
And also most of their command and control are still giving orders.
That's why we threw in the towel with the Houthis. It seems like we might do the same with Iran, but a logistical pothole is hardly a devastating loss for the US.
It very much is a devastating loss of say, the Lincoln were sunk.
Nevermind that we've been having huge problems with sustainment of munitions thanks to throwing away two decades worth of stockpiles in the goddamn Ukraine.
I'd say the other risk is the fact Iran went out of their way to hit their neighbours beyond just US bases.
Having your command structure gutted with targeted strikes, diminished missile launching capabilities and no navy only coral reefs isn't good when every nation around you wants to jump you for attacking them.
Yeah, but who cares? Those other nations are bigger shitholes than Iran and, since Bidens's endowment, probably have less contemporary equipment than Afghanistan.
Man you love riding Iran's dick. You are such a muzzie faggot.
How's the Jew cock tasting?
Wouldn't know. You would though, the muzzies are Semitic as well.
I'll let the Persians know. And the Malaysians. Also the Pakistanis.
Muslims aren't a race, you retard.
Iranians aren't semites....
So pointing out that this neocon war of aggression was stupid and likely to fail, is "riding Iran's dick"?
2003 called, they want their "you support Saddam" talking points back.
No, but that's not what he's doing. He's riding Iran's dick by lying about the status of the country and pretending it's some noble place.
I just re-read it and I see nothing implying anything about Iran's moral status.
He's obviously not a Muslim... in the past, I've had arguments with him because he argued that the Germans in WW2 held soldiers accountable for war crimes, while the allies did not.