The consensus here (which I largely agree with) is that polls are about manipulating public opinion instead of reflecting it. In 2016 they used polls to try to convince us of the inevitability of Killary's victory, which backfired big time. In 2020 they cranked that strategy up to 11, and combined with industrial scale voter fraud they managed to install the dementia ridden pedophile that's sitting in the White House right now. In both cases the game was to show the Dem consistently ahead of Trump so the intended steal had plausible deniability. This time around is different. Trump's polls are consistently better than they were in 2016 or 2020. Yes they're conveniently behind Kumswala's, but if they were employing the same strategy they did the last 2 times they would be showing him at least as far behind as they did in 2020. Clearly they're playing a different game this time around. I think they're scared shitless of a red wave overwhelming their fraud machine, so they're trying to create complacency in Trump voters and scare their own base into turning out so their dirty tricks can put them over the top again. But that's just my guess. I'm curious what everyone here thinks.
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The actual polls are worse for Kamala but they keep it close so they can cheat.
Trump isn't acting like someone whose campaign thinks the polls are close.
He just held a massive rally in New York City, a place where he has almost zero chance of winning. If he weren't confident that he was going to win the battleground states, his surrogates would be swarming them with rallies, not hanging out at what amounts to a massive party.
Not to say that he's guaranteed to win or that the steal isn't on, but simply going by optics it's looking like even the fake polls can't cover up his massive support.
I think he'll get 80+ million votes this time around.
He had better get 100 million.
I have no illusions that the left will just shrug their shoulders and go "oh well, better luck next time". They are going to cheat as hard as they can, and Trump is going to need as many votes as he can in order to make it impossible to hide.
I doubt that'll work for this as historically Republican voters are lax on mid terms but cpme out heavy for the presidential elections.
I'm not doubting they're not trying it as they're copying 2016 tactics for fucks sake right now but I doubt it'll be effective since even the more centrist sit on the fence voters are pissed off with how insane and annoying the Dems are being right now.
They are genuinely scared shitless of a red wave, and even push polls are showing republican popular support. They are hedging their bet to call things toss-ups that Trump is going to win by 5 points or more. Watch "The People's Pundit" on Rumble to see what's basically been going on.
It's the Kasich Effect. Kamala was more popular as an unknown than as a known, and now that she's making herself known, she's becoming more and more unpopular. The media is doing literally everything they can think of to prop her up, and it's not working. The fortification efforts genuinely don't seem to be of the same size and scope that we've seen in previous elections because they literally weren't readied or manned in time by the Biden administration, and real progress has been made in anti-fraud efforts across many states. The lack of mail in ballots is absolutely killing them.
Unless the Dems properly do something crazy, like Governor Shapiro declares that he refuses to send electors; we're basically gonna know Trump will have won on election night.
Don't be stupid though. Still vote.
The biggest thing regarding fortification is the ballots don't exist this time around. Last time, most battleground states mass mailed ballots to everyone under the guise of "muh Covid," So when someone shows up in the middle of the night with a van full of 95% Biden ballots, those are actually real ballots that were simply fraudulently obtained and filled out.
This time around ballots weren't sent out in anywhere near as large of numbers. Mail voting is down anywhere from 30 to 90% depending on the jurisdiction, and what has been returned has shifted far to the right.
They barely managed to pull it off last time with all that working in their favor. And the general environment this time is much more R friendly. Trump is more popular than ever. Kamala is less popular than Biden.
There will be cheating. Lots of it, probably. I just don't see how it could be enough this time. Of course people can't and shouldn't get complacent. Every vote counts even if just to send a message.
They were also fraudulently printed out. There's a lot of absentee ballots that never got folded.
Other thing I wonder about is whether these people actually want to fortify for Kamala.
These people have their own political ambitions and may not want to wait 8 years when they can wait 4 instead.
People should still vote as though they'll fortify, though. If nothing else, take some satisfaction in canceling out the vote of that one annoying shitlib you know.
Too many people want vengeance. Every vote for Trump is a "fuck you" to the blob. Who would want to miss out on that opportunity?
The media is lying to you.
I’d trust the betting markets more, since they presumably price in the potential for fraud / general fuckery. I also don’t trust the pollsters to be above board, nor do I trust them to be not totally mathematically retarded.
When the polls are plus or minus 20% they are useless. Far worse, they are using the minus 20 as the results.
I don't know, but at this point I'm volunteering and going out and voting.
Polls are made to influence people. The historic formula in MSM polls is to have the democrat take a strong lead for much of the election so that people will question how popular their own beliefs are and hitch their star to a winner. Then as the election cometh, the polls slowly converge to a neck-and-neck race for two reasons: First is to provide cover in case the final tally is far different from the fake polls, and second is to get viewers staring at their television sets until they see which candidate will win in a photo finish.