In the wake of Trump’s motorcade driving through the Atlanta ghetto - in order to film a few black people cheering for a conservative - we’re once again seeing a bunch of conservative talking heads rehash the same tired bullshit about blacks waking up to the corruption and degeneracy of the left. These pundits are claiming that black support for Trump is now at 20% and climbing!
Nonsense. The reality is that we have a cottage industry of black content creators, influencers, and reactors who promote conservatism not for a black audience but rather for a white conservative audience. Because white conservatives are absolutely terrified of being labeled racist, so black creators are ready to cash in with content that serves that demographic.
Blacks are never going to support republicans.
Black men, specifically men, who manage to climb into the middle class might be slightly more inclined to support Trump-like populists. Not conservatives, and even then, it will be a minority of them. I could see a future where 20% of black men vote for someone like Trump. But their support for rightist populism won't last longer than that particularly charismatic candidate does.
Black men on average have polled as high as 40% for Donald Trump.
The thing that's utterly killing him is black women: 2% support.
You're never going to get a demographic of people dependent on government gibs to vote for Republicans.
Not to mention the abortion rate. Black women make black men look like Jainists.
Yeah, honestly, you're better off having them marry conservative black men than trying to recruit them.
That being said... that's a tall order too.
If I were in a position to shape policy, I'd end welfare and strongly incentivize women to marry and have children. Basically with regard to black society, a return to life as it was before Johnson's Great Society.
What percentage of blacks are 'dependent on government gibs'? If what you say is true, then the votes of the rest of them are up for grabs - which is not the case.
It depends on the program, for example 36% were on Medicaid/CHIP in 2021.
But to your point, yes, it is not just welfare as a motivation. There are also cultural reasons for why 90% of blacks vote for Democrats.
Well there was the whole affirmative action thing for quite a while.
Also, while less to do with governments, there's been a sea of diversity-based favoritism in various job markets for the last 15 or so years.
Polls drive a narrative, which is exactly what OP is talking about. Don’t buy it.
Many polls drive narratives, but this is something that we are seeing reflected in reality. A slow but steady increase in black-republican votes.
Black men have a decent rate of Trump support and a low rate of voting.
The fact is black women have been driving Dem policy for ages due to vastly different voting patterns by sex.
I think the same is true of Republicans, for the same reason, and only to a lesser degree. Whether men kind of "dropping out" ends up being a good thing remains to be seen.
Certainly, we do not put all of our faith in "voting."