An attack by the PRC against the RoC would be the first time in history where a land army defeats a navy with just artillery. And it'd be as one-sided as the Battle of Surigao Strait.
You gotta understand TI, we have not seen a forced amphibious assault against hardened, dug in defenses in 70 years. If the PRC is dumb enough to try it they'll learn why Schwarzkopf made a FEINT amphibious assault against Iraq instead of a real one. 'Cuz with the artillery the world has now it would be a meat grinder for anyone trying it.
You just can't envision it because you've never seen a fight where a SINGLE land fired artillery shell from a traditional howitzer has a better than 50/50 chance of hitting a landing ship and killing everyone aboard, five miles offshore. That's the world of war we live in today. We just haven't seen a fight where that sort of capacity has been demonstrated, because we've been shooting goat herding terrorists for twenty years.
This implies a level of competence in Taiwan that might not exist. Guided weapons aren't magic, they still need to lock on. They'll still be fired at by naval vessels. They're still vulnerable from the air. A naval invasion in the modern era hasn't been tried before, but that doesn't mean it's not possible.
But anyone who believes that China could invade Taiwan as easily as Germany invaded Czechoslovakia is mistaken. They have to cross a hundred miles of ocean, being in range of the Hsiung Feng III the whole way, MLRS rockets half the way, and guided Paladin fire the last third.
The sheer volume of guided anti-ship fire they'll soak up trying to cross that water will be like nothing that has been seen in the history of war ever.
They have the capacity, but that would be an unconditional failure. If the CCP nukes Taiwan during an expansionist war they started, not only do they not achieve their strategic goal of capturing Taiwan and reuniting China under their boot, it means that everyone in the world has a free pass and a duty to nuke the CCP back.
It's kinda sad we have to actually explain this sort of stuff to youngsters now, ain't it?
Like, they've never actually sat down and thought about the implications of being able to casually obliterate an opponent and how that capacity isn't really all it's cracked up to be.
I take your reducto ad nukem as an admission that, on reflection, yes, an amphibious assault against a modern enemy with enormous quantities of guided weaponry would be a slaughter. I just wish you were TI1.
No, I'm not.
This is capacity they already have.
An attack by the PRC against the RoC would be the first time in history where a land army defeats a navy with just artillery. And it'd be as one-sided as the Battle of Surigao Strait.
You gotta understand TI, we have not seen a forced amphibious assault against hardened, dug in defenses in 70 years. If the PRC is dumb enough to try it they'll learn why Schwarzkopf made a FEINT amphibious assault against Iraq instead of a real one. 'Cuz with the artillery the world has now it would be a meat grinder for anyone trying it.
You just can't envision it because you've never seen a fight where a SINGLE land fired artillery shell from a traditional howitzer has a better than 50/50 chance of hitting a landing ship and killing everyone aboard, five miles offshore. That's the world of war we live in today. We just haven't seen a fight where that sort of capacity has been demonstrated, because we've been shooting goat herding terrorists for twenty years.
This implies a level of competence in Taiwan that might not exist. Guided weapons aren't magic, they still need to lock on. They'll still be fired at by naval vessels. They're still vulnerable from the air. A naval invasion in the modern era hasn't been tried before, but that doesn't mean it's not possible.
This is all true.
But anyone who believes that China could invade Taiwan as easily as Germany invaded Czechoslovakia is mistaken. They have to cross a hundred miles of ocean, being in range of the Hsiung Feng III the whole way, MLRS rockets half the way, and guided Paladin fire the last third.
The sheer volume of guided anti-ship fire they'll soak up trying to cross that water will be like nothing that has been seen in the history of war ever.
Does the PRC have nukes? Would the PRC nuke the RoC?
They have the capacity, but that would be an unconditional failure. If the CCP nukes Taiwan during an expansionist war they started, not only do they not achieve their strategic goal of capturing Taiwan and reuniting China under their boot, it means that everyone in the world has a free pass and a duty to nuke the CCP back.
It's kinda sad we have to actually explain this sort of stuff to youngsters now, ain't it?
Like, they've never actually sat down and thought about the implications of being able to casually obliterate an opponent and how that capacity isn't really all it's cracked up to be.
You can, but what warrants it?
I doubt it. They might threaten to, but it would kind of defeat the purpose of conquering them.
I take your reducto ad nukem as an admission that, on reflection, yes, an amphibious assault against a modern enemy with enormous quantities of guided weaponry would be a slaughter. I just wish you were TI1.
I see it as a slaughter yes. Without heavy ordinance (nukes), land invasions from the sea are doomed to fail.