Russia in 1994 was "strategic partner", not any sort of enemy, opponent, adversary. The regime had just slaughtered all the uppity commie residents (and bystanders) in the streets of Moscow and shelled the White House, so it seemed that "the end of history" is there for good and it's the best place for all the Soviet nuclear weapons from anywhere.
What is actually new is the Belarusian national identity. For centuries they used to be "Lithuanians", now they accuse Lithuania of stealing it and say they were the real Lithuanians, a bit like the situation of Greece and (Northern) Macedonia. Or generally Ruthenians, if not just "Locals" (yes, you read it right - there were very many of such nationless marshdweller Miejscowi selfidentified in the Polish interwar census in today's Western Belarus).
Meanwhile the Cossack love of freedom, and unruliness, was legendary. (Of course not all Ukrainians are of Cossack ancestry, but the nationalists will all claim they have such. https://youtube.com/watch?v=-a4GXV1Y0MQ is a catchy warsong about just that.)
Yanukovych killed a few thousand
A hundred. (The "heavenly hundred", where hundred, the sotnia, is a traditional Cossack warband force.)
Ukraine is Russian Texas. There is a unique identity centered around general unruliness, but it's also an imperial territory and it would be extremely threatening for a rival empire from the other side of the world to claim it.
Because if it doesn't, Russia's current border is already indefensible and Russian demographics are already so bad that if Russia were to do nothing at all, it would doom itself as a nation.
Russia is a nuclear armed nation. It doesn't need to defend itself against horde attacks as though this was the 1300s. And attacking Ukraine does nothing to allay it's impending demographic collapse - indeed it exacerbates it. So if Russia does invade Ukraine, it won't be due to any of the reasons you explained.
Russians have dreamed of a Carpathian shield...Carpathians would act as a natural border protecting Russia and forcing any army coming from the west to march through Poland or up through the Bessarabian gap in Romania.
I'm sorry, but this sounds like nonsense. So you're saying they are concerned because they were invaded by Napoleon and Hitler and thus want a shield that would force any invaders to take the same path that Napoleon and Hitler took? If they were currently after Poland this would make more sense.
A Russian excuse for the Ribbentrop-Molotov was that the Soviets worked with the Germans to estabilish a long direct border with Germany (which didn't even exist at all before the pact, with Poland and other buffor countries) because they feared a German invasion. It's absurdly nonsensical but maybe they actually believe it somehow.
Hitler and Napoleon did go through Poland, there was just no Poland on the map in both these cases. (Napoleon did create a "Duchy of Warsaw", from the lands he won from the Prussians and the Austrians but it was a French puppet state ruled by a Saxon king.)
From our perspective there's no rattling of anything and America looks ridicalously weak and impotent. But that's not new now, it's been like that all of Kamala's presidency.
And it's not only European perspective, this is also why the new Asian/Pacific anti-Chinese pact is not going to include the US of A. America is just so worthless.
It's quite an entertaining read, which should be a red flag. Good analysts who are also funny are like impossible unicorns, but good storytellers who are funny are a dime a dozen.
It has a pretty wide pro Russian streak (barely) under the surface. From choosing an upscaled number of people shot who were used as the excuse to annex Crimea, to excusing that Russia has to invade Ukraine "because demographics", like there's any country to Russia's west that has the political will to invade Russia for the hell of it in the next 50 years, or doesn't even have their own looming demographic problems. Then it ends on praise Putin, he's just a smart guy doing a hard job as best he can.
A rule I have is if the first paragraph or two are just jokes trying to make you laugh, there's a chance they want you to let your guard down before absorbing their information, so I go in with my guard extra tight.
Ukraine is not the issue here, NATO missiles close to the Russian border are.
The smart thing to do is destroy NATO bases in the Baltics & Poland with surgical strikes, the west can do shit to defend them and they won't go to war for that. The only thing that can delay such actions is the fact that China is not yet ready to annex Taiwan.
China & Russia promote an international law based world while the US wants everyone to play by they rules. The sooner Yankees are crashed & EU dissolved the better for everyone.
There are Russian missiles on the NATO borders all the time. Including in Kaliningrad Enclave that is completely surrounded by Poland and Lithuania (and used to be Polish, as Królewiec - now it's renamed after Bolshevik leader Kalinin).
I really see NATO as the aggressor here running up and down their eastern border taunting Putin incessantly and without provocation, NATO is the bully who keeps poking the bear and won't leave it alone. Putin is a very clever man and I doubt he can be tricked into making any drastic mistake that would allow the west to claim the high ground for an invasion, which is what they've been attempting since Boris Yeltsin kicked the bucket and Putin threw the western hordes of carpetbaggers out of his country.
Speculatively I see Belarus as more of a geographic weak spot than Ukraine. Belarus is the wide buffer zone between Russia and Europe and sparsely populated. Lukashenko is a wild card, old, corrupt, and he had to lock up the last guy who beat him in an election in order to stay in power. When Lukashenko goes after 30+ years I would place no bets on what happens after that.
But I think this current brouhaha over Ukraine is a distraction to keep the western masses in fear and not noticing how much they have been ripped off, imprisoned, manipulated, and bankrupted by their own western leadership over the last 25 years, and particularly as a distraction from the consequences of the coof lockdowns and medical tyranny.
The EU is the real evil here and NATO is their army.
Putin is continuously invading and occupying Ukraine for nearly a decade now. Some 15,000 people have died so far, including a thousand in just one week-long offensive by Russian regulars back in 2015 (featuring the "Indians", Asian soldiers from Buryatia actually quite genetically related to the American Indians).
Further to my previous point: if Slovakia and the Czech Republic split over economic policy, and very little else, and now, 30 years later, have essentially the same economic policy, but have not rejoined..?
I don’t think the people of Belarus are exactly going to allow themselves to be annexed, willingly…
And nor will, or should, Ukraine.
Russia is Russia. Ukraine is Ukraine. Belarus is Belarus. The fucking USSR/Russian Empire is dead, and should stay dead…
Slovakia is a funny case, they became so irrelevant since the split that even in Poland we don't think of Slovakia or the Slovaks. They were really always only an addition to Czechia.
Really?? That’s interesting, because politically, and religiously, you guys have way more in common than you do with the Czechs…
Yes, yes, I’m simplifying. I know there’s a Polish community in “Czechia”, and I know about Silesia…
But in the 21st century, you guys and the Slovaks are more alike, in many ways, than you might think… 🤷🏻♂️
It’s interesting you say that, though, because I probably think of Bratislava more than I think of say… Wrocław. But it’s me, and I’m obviously not Polish, so…
I’ve also been very close to Bratislava (Vienna), so that has probably made me think about it more, since then. Maybe. 🤷🏻♂️
But also my favourite James Bond movie (and probably Bond girl, even if the actress was not Slovak), lol. As lame as that is!!
No one ever talks about Slovakia or anything Slovak. They have the Tatra Mountains and so do we. I have zero idea what else they have, and I don't even remember the name of their capital city (is it Bratislava? I'm not even sure now). There are no Slovak video games too while the Czechs deliver some quality content. I don't know how the Slovak language sounds, probably indistinguishable from the Czech but I just don't know. In 1992 they split and like disappeared instantly.
I guess people in the Balkans may think so about Slovenia too. But in this case it may be good for the Slovenians to be a little quiet country of the region (I think a lot like a mini Austria now, in several ways). Or perhaps even more so, Serbia and Montenegro (also mountainous, I think, it's in the name).
Belarus is marshlands and forests, rather than plains. This is why it was a "Bandit Country" for the Germans during WWII, with all the Partisan Republics in the swamps and the woods. This is also why they killed or deported all these villagers in the huge Anti-Bandit operations (Hitler's Bandit Hunters is a pretty good book).
You're confused and you really think of Ukraine and the great steppe. Where even a small hill is incredibly strategic, like the manmade Savur Mohyla where they just fought for it for months and during WWII they have even fought for it for even longer, something ridicalous like over 1 year.
The Americans gave the warheads to Russia.
https://www.rferl.org/a/the-destruction-of-ukraines-nuclear-arsenal/29699706.html
Russia in 1994 was "strategic partner", not any sort of enemy, opponent, adversary. The regime had just slaughtered all the uppity commie residents (and bystanders) in the streets of Moscow and shelled the White House, so it seemed that "the end of history" is there for good and it's the best place for all the Soviet nuclear weapons from anywhere.
Maaaan, the place had been full with EXTREME TOTAL ABSOLUTE HARDCORE nationalists before you were even born.
Resulted in https://www.president.pl/news/this-is-one-of-the-most-tragic-and-painful-pages-of-polish-history-during-world-war-ii,36759
What is actually new is the Belarusian national identity. For centuries they used to be "Lithuanians", now they accuse Lithuania of stealing it and say they were the real Lithuanians, a bit like the situation of Greece and (Northern) Macedonia. Or generally Ruthenians, if not just "Locals" (yes, you read it right - there were very many of such nationless marshdweller Miejscowi selfidentified in the Polish interwar census in today's Western Belarus).
Meanwhile the Cossack love of freedom, and unruliness, was legendary. (Of course not all Ukrainians are of Cossack ancestry, but the nationalists will all claim they have such. https://youtube.com/watch?v=-a4GXV1Y0MQ is a catchy warsong about just that.)
A hundred. (The "heavenly hundred", where hundred, the sotnia, is a traditional Cossack warband force.)
Not going to read and nickpick the rest honestly.
Ukraine is Russian Texas. There is a unique identity centered around general unruliness, but it's also an imperial territory and it would be extremely threatening for a rival empire from the other side of the world to claim it.
It's because they have replaced the Eastern Ukrainians after killing them off or deporting elsewhere as "kulaks".
The most tragic thing about Russia invading Ukraine will be the delay or cancellation of STALKER 2.
We need to send all the troops and materiel necessary to secure the future of STALKER 2.
Make it 14 Words plz
Send troops and materiel necessary to secure the future of STALKER 2. Kill Whitey.
I kind of feel like neglecting to mention the Holodomor, and what occurred during that time period, is a fairly big fucking omission, here, lol…
I feel like it’s not terribly surprising that Ukraine does not want to be part of a modern-day Russian empire, after that, and WW2… 🤦🏻♂️🇺🇦
Good writeup but I disagree with this:
Russia is a nuclear armed nation. It doesn't need to defend itself against horde attacks as though this was the 1300s. And attacking Ukraine does nothing to allay it's impending demographic collapse - indeed it exacerbates it. So if Russia does invade Ukraine, it won't be due to any of the reasons you explained.
I'm sorry, but this sounds like nonsense. So you're saying they are concerned because they were invaded by Napoleon and Hitler and thus want a shield that would force any invaders to take the same path that Napoleon and Hitler took? If they were currently after Poland this would make more sense.
A Russian excuse for the Ribbentrop-Molotov was that the Soviets worked with the Germans to estabilish a long direct border with Germany (which didn't even exist at all before the pact, with Poland and other buffor countries) because they feared a German invasion. It's absurdly nonsensical but maybe they actually believe it somehow.
Hitler and Napoleon did go through Poland, there was just no Poland on the map in both these cases. (Napoleon did create a "Duchy of Warsaw", from the lands he won from the Prussians and the Austrians but it was a French puppet state ruled by a Saxon king.)
Okay. I see how being able to attack invaders from the south while your forces are protected by the Carpathians would be useful.
The saber rattling is all show for the election. It's supposed to make the US look tough.
From our perspective there's no rattling of anything and America looks ridicalously weak and impotent. But that's not new now, it's been like that all of Kamala's presidency.
And it's not only European perspective, this is also why the new Asian/Pacific anti-Chinese pact is not going to include the US of A. America is just so worthless.
Thanks for the breakdown. Very interesting
It's not very good: https://kotakuinaction2.win/p/141FJtlaJr/x/c/4OTNCNqKQEb
Stopped reading early because nor worth it. But you may ask me any questions of you want.
It's quite an entertaining read, which should be a red flag. Good analysts who are also funny are like impossible unicorns, but good storytellers who are funny are a dime a dozen.
It has a pretty wide pro Russian streak (barely) under the surface. From choosing an upscaled number of people shot who were used as the excuse to annex Crimea, to excusing that Russia has to invade Ukraine "because demographics", like there's any country to Russia's west that has the political will to invade Russia for the hell of it in the next 50 years, or doesn't even have their own looming demographic problems. Then it ends on praise Putin, he's just a smart guy doing a hard job as best he can.
A rule I have is if the first paragraph or two are just jokes trying to make you laugh, there's a chance they want you to let your guard down before absorbing their information, so I go in with my guard extra tight.
Ukraine is not the issue here, NATO missiles close to the Russian border are.
The smart thing to do is destroy NATO bases in the Baltics & Poland with surgical strikes, the west can do shit to defend them and they won't go to war for that. The only thing that can delay such actions is the fact that China is not yet ready to annex Taiwan.
China & Russia promote an international law based world while the US wants everyone to play by they rules. The sooner Yankees are crashed & EU dissolved the better for everyone.
There are Russian missiles on the NATO borders all the time. Including in Kaliningrad Enclave that is completely surrounded by Poland and Lithuania (and used to be Polish, as Królewiec - now it's renamed after Bolshevik leader Kalinin).
Bravo, very very well said, thanks for posting.
I really see NATO as the aggressor here running up and down their eastern border taunting Putin incessantly and without provocation, NATO is the bully who keeps poking the bear and won't leave it alone. Putin is a very clever man and I doubt he can be tricked into making any drastic mistake that would allow the west to claim the high ground for an invasion, which is what they've been attempting since Boris Yeltsin kicked the bucket and Putin threw the western hordes of carpetbaggers out of his country.
Speculatively I see Belarus as more of a geographic weak spot than Ukraine. Belarus is the wide buffer zone between Russia and Europe and sparsely populated. Lukashenko is a wild card, old, corrupt, and he had to lock up the last guy who beat him in an election in order to stay in power. When Lukashenko goes after 30+ years I would place no bets on what happens after that.
But I think this current brouhaha over Ukraine is a distraction to keep the western masses in fear and not noticing how much they have been ripped off, imprisoned, manipulated, and bankrupted by their own western leadership over the last 25 years, and particularly as a distraction from the consequences of the coof lockdowns and medical tyranny.
The EU is the real evil here and NATO is their army.
Putin is continuously invading and occupying Ukraine for nearly a decade now. Some 15,000 people have died so far, including a thousand in just one week-long offensive by Russian regulars back in 2015 (featuring the "Indians", Asian soldiers from Buryatia actually quite genetically related to the American Indians).
Further to my previous point: if Slovakia and the Czech Republic split over economic policy, and very little else, and now, 30 years later, have essentially the same economic policy, but have not rejoined..?
I don’t think the people of Belarus are exactly going to allow themselves to be annexed, willingly…
And nor will, or should, Ukraine.
Russia is Russia. Ukraine is Ukraine. Belarus is Belarus. The fucking USSR/Russian Empire is dead, and should stay dead…
Slovakia is a funny case, they became so irrelevant since the split that even in Poland we don't think of Slovakia or the Slovaks. They were really always only an addition to Czechia.
Really?? That’s interesting, because politically, and religiously, you guys have way more in common than you do with the Czechs…
Yes, yes, I’m simplifying. I know there’s a Polish community in “Czechia”, and I know about Silesia…
But in the 21st century, you guys and the Slovaks are more alike, in many ways, than you might think… 🤷🏻♂️
It’s interesting you say that, though, because I probably think of Bratislava more than I think of say… Wrocław. But it’s me, and I’m obviously not Polish, so…
I’ve also been very close to Bratislava (Vienna), so that has probably made me think about it more, since then. Maybe. 🤷🏻♂️
But also my favourite James Bond movie (and probably Bond girl, even if the actress was not Slovak), lol. As lame as that is!!
No one ever talks about Slovakia or anything Slovak. They have the Tatra Mountains and so do we. I have zero idea what else they have, and I don't even remember the name of their capital city (is it Bratislava? I'm not even sure now). There are no Slovak video games too while the Czechs deliver some quality content. I don't know how the Slovak language sounds, probably indistinguishable from the Czech but I just don't know. In 1992 they split and like disappeared instantly.
I guess people in the Balkans may think so about Slovenia too. But in this case it may be good for the Slovenians to be a little quiet country of the region (I think a lot like a mini Austria now, in several ways). Or perhaps even more so, Serbia and Montenegro (also mountainous, I think, it's in the name).
Belarus is marshlands and forests, rather than plains. This is why it was a "Bandit Country" for the Germans during WWII, with all the Partisan Republics in the swamps and the woods. This is also why they killed or deported all these villagers in the huge Anti-Bandit operations (Hitler's Bandit Hunters is a pretty good book).
You're confused and you really think of Ukraine and the great steppe. Where even a small hill is incredibly strategic, like the manmade Savur Mohyla where they just fought for it for months and during WWII they have even fought for it for even longer, something ridicalous like over 1 year.
Also Kazakhstan, but that isn’t so relevant to WW2, or “Europe” per se…
But it’s more what OP is thinking of, re “great plains”… 🤷🏻♂️
If and when Lukashenko is overthrown, the people of Belarus are absolutely not going to tolerate being annexed, lol…
They might like Russia, but they do not see themselves as Russian.
It’s not bloody Russian Texas, and nor is Ukraine. I hate that people are simplifying this into purely American terms.
Europe is not America. Countries are not US states. It doesn’t work like that… 🤦🏻♂️