That's a short short. I dunno. Just because they've got an issue in their vax doesn't mean it isn't being wildly distributed (and thus sold for profit) all over the world. Astra falling would be a long-term situation if it gets brought to court or scientifically proven to be harmful, which isn't something that is done in short timespans.
Good luck with it, for sure, but I'm not seeing the short being successful from an economist's point of view, their demand and supply are both quite high, and their risks are offset both by the massive existing sales, and most countries right now actually have laws against suing them if the vaccine kills their grandma (WHY they have those laws if it is perfectly safe I have no clue, but I know most western countries do).
Good luck then. I personally just don't buy into the whole stock market thing, mainly because it's more fun to watch and I just don't have the capital to throw around like that on positions that if backfired would drain me out.
Shorts have a very limited gain, and as we've seen with GME, UNLIMITED LOSS. And then put the small-hats into the mix, and things will find some way to be rigged against you.
I wanted to short Twitter a while back, when it was originally bloated at ~$40. It dropped all the way down to ~$15, but I don't invest on margin and so didn't capitalize on it.
Are you doing this in an IRA account? It doesn't sound like you're investing much money, but you can't take advantage of capital gains tax unless you hold onto positions for 12 months or something like that; depending on your income bracket, that might be bad.
Still don't quite understand how they made a profit,
They didn't back when I was considering it. Don't know about their financials now, but it's all a scam. Almost at $70 now, ROFL.
I'm heavily into EVs and February was a really, really bad month for growth stocks. Apparently the worst since the Dot Com bust. They'll recover, but I have to roll my eyes at TWTR outperforming - strike price wise - my entire portfolio atm. That'll correct itself long-term for sure, but is annoying.
I have full understanding of the taxes, risks etc involved
Got it. Echo your same sentiments about WSBets btw, there's no point in visiting it. For a while it was just being spammed by a few users for some Matrix chat room, think it got cut down on, but either the experience was lackluster.
IMO NIO is the real deal, and I'm hedging most of my IRA on it playing out as such over the next 4 years. Chinese market is massive and they might be profitable by EOY. Getting to the next level after that might be hard, but they have a lot of tech.
Unfortunately, I pretty much hate most companies so I can't apply principles. Wall Street is a dirty, filthy place that saps all morals. All most can hope for is to come out of it well enough to retire early, never mind the debris.
You're doing fine, though I don't have the stomach for crypto. As long as you aren't putting up loses or bleeding on margin, that makes you a wise investor. Compare this to me missing out on cashing out on Fisker's post-Foxconn bump...got a bit too greedy, it didn't make the jump to where it should have, and my potential gains got completely ruined by a mostly Red February. Now I'm waiting for it to go back to its peak so I can offload the warrants and shares and engage in dirty profit-taking games.
Probably should have dumped it on Thursday though, considering the rumors about regulations in China hitting Tencent hard.
I have a question, how volatile is the stock market? Judging by this statement even stuff like rumors can make it lose value. Does this mean you have to keep up with the news of all the companies you own stocks of?
And how do you keep up with all these news? Do you use something like google news or you look for stuff about that particular company/industry and the countries they are located in?
There would be a big public perception issue if there were a major problem with a vaccine.
But the current issues are nowhere near that level.
They are distributing the vaccine at cost - so no profit for them. For many of the pharmas, have had grants from govs to increase capacity, and in general, the vaccines are proving to be a massive PR win for them - the pandemic has been fantastic for them, and I don't see that changing in the short term.
10s of millions of doses have been given already. The only issues that rise above common side effects are blood clots, which can't be statistically linked to the vaccine, and anaphylaxis, which is a known risk in some people and can be treated if it happens; I don't think AZN is at risk.
The current worry around blood clots doesn't make sense. Blood clots happen at a rate in the general population of about 100/million people per month. So a handful of people getting a blood clot isn't a surprise given the number of vaccines. It doesn't make sense why some countries have banned it, and unless some other evidence comes out, I think they'll reverse shortly.
Full disclosure: I'm in favour of the vaccine and think the majority give excellent protection for minimal side effects, and I think everyone should get it when offered :)
They are distributing the vaccine at cost - so no profit for them.
Curious if you have a source for this? I've seen reports of a fairly low cost (e.g. $15-$25 per dose paid by the govt.) as well as reports of the government having funded a lot of the research. Just not that they are actually distributing them at their cost and making no profit.
Not trying to be a Redditor turd with the "sauce plz" thing, just trying to educate myself.
Don't have any healthcare stock at the moment. I know I held Pfizer for a year or two but I think that was 2016 or 2017. I looked at some of them earlier this year and it's really odd, you'd expect that selling millions of vaccines to the government at probably ridiculous prices would drive the price up and it's been relatively flat and the earnings expectations don't look all that special. If I had to guess the only way you make out well with yours is if a lot more governments start banning or it gets out that people are dying at a huge rate.
But hey, even someone like myself that's less of a risktaker and more of a value finder with stocks makes weird bets from time to time. I bought some Roblox stock this week of all things. I have some Nokia too, that's a WSB thing still I think.
So maybe when they announce you have to get an annual Covid vaccine (100% convinced that's coming) then it will go up. Maybe should one of the vaccines on my watch list. It won't be AstraZeneca anyway.
I could be skewed by most my my young cousins and nephews all being in the Roblox age group and it seems to have stuck really well in the 5-10 age group. They grow out of it and move on, but it will be telling if kids that hit that age keep picking it up. I think it's still the smallest position I have outside of a few tiny options. Maybe it will jump 25% at which time I'll be happy and drop it.
That's a short short. I dunno. Just because they've got an issue in their vax doesn't mean it isn't being wildly distributed (and thus sold for profit) all over the world. Astra falling would be a long-term situation if it gets brought to court or scientifically proven to be harmful, which isn't something that is done in short timespans.
Good luck with it, for sure, but I'm not seeing the short being successful from an economist's point of view, their demand and supply are both quite high, and their risks are offset both by the massive existing sales, and most countries right now actually have laws against suing them if the vaccine kills their grandma (WHY they have those laws if it is perfectly safe I have no clue, but I know most western countries do).
It is possible there will be a dip due to panic-sale bad news, true. Best of luck with it.
Good luck then. I personally just don't buy into the whole stock market thing, mainly because it's more fun to watch and I just don't have the capital to throw around like that on positions that if backfired would drain me out.
Shorts have a very limited gain, and as we've seen with GME, UNLIMITED LOSS. And then put the small-hats into the mix, and things will find some way to be rigged against you.
I wanted to short Twitter a while back, when it was originally bloated at ~$40. It dropped all the way down to ~$15, but I don't invest on margin and so didn't capitalize on it.
Are you doing this in an IRA account? It doesn't sound like you're investing much money, but you can't take advantage of capital gains tax unless you hold onto positions for 12 months or something like that; depending on your income bracket, that might be bad.
They didn't back when I was considering it. Don't know about their financials now, but it's all a scam. Almost at $70 now, ROFL.
I'm heavily into EVs and February was a really, really bad month for growth stocks. Apparently the worst since the Dot Com bust. They'll recover, but I have to roll my eyes at TWTR outperforming - strike price wise - my entire portfolio atm. That'll correct itself long-term for sure, but is annoying.
Got it. Echo your same sentiments about WSBets btw, there's no point in visiting it. For a while it was just being spammed by a few users for some Matrix chat room, think it got cut down on, but either the experience was lackluster.
IMO NIO is the real deal, and I'm hedging most of my IRA on it playing out as such over the next 4 years. Chinese market is massive and they might be profitable by EOY. Getting to the next level after that might be hard, but they have a lot of tech.
Unfortunately, I pretty much hate most companies so I can't apply principles. Wall Street is a dirty, filthy place that saps all morals. All most can hope for is to come out of it well enough to retire early, never mind the debris.
You're doing fine, though I don't have the stomach for crypto. As long as you aren't putting up loses or bleeding on margin, that makes you a wise investor. Compare this to me missing out on cashing out on Fisker's post-Foxconn bump...got a bit too greedy, it didn't make the jump to where it should have, and my potential gains got completely ruined by a mostly Red February. Now I'm waiting for it to go back to its peak so I can offload the warrants and shares and engage in dirty profit-taking games.
I have a question, how volatile is the stock market? Judging by this statement even stuff like rumors can make it lose value. Does this mean you have to keep up with the news of all the companies you own stocks of? And how do you keep up with all these news? Do you use something like google news or you look for stuff about that particular company/industry and the countries they are located in?
There would be a big public perception issue if there were a major problem with a vaccine.
But the current issues are nowhere near that level.
They are distributing the vaccine at cost - so no profit for them. For many of the pharmas, have had grants from govs to increase capacity, and in general, the vaccines are proving to be a massive PR win for them - the pandemic has been fantastic for them, and I don't see that changing in the short term.
10s of millions of doses have been given already. The only issues that rise above common side effects are blood clots, which can't be statistically linked to the vaccine, and anaphylaxis, which is a known risk in some people and can be treated if it happens; I don't think AZN is at risk.
The current worry around blood clots doesn't make sense. Blood clots happen at a rate in the general population of about 100/million people per month. So a handful of people getting a blood clot isn't a surprise given the number of vaccines. It doesn't make sense why some countries have banned it, and unless some other evidence comes out, I think they'll reverse shortly.
Full disclosure: I'm in favour of the vaccine and think the majority give excellent protection for minimal side effects, and I think everyone should get it when offered :)
Curious if you have a source for this? I've seen reports of a fairly low cost (e.g. $15-$25 per dose paid by the govt.) as well as reports of the government having funded a lot of the research. Just not that they are actually distributing them at their cost and making no profit.
Not trying to be a Redditor turd with the "sauce plz" thing, just trying to educate myself.
A fair request. There are a few articles, but the best I’ve found is the BBC: COVID Vaccines: Will drug companies make bumper profits?
Don't have any healthcare stock at the moment. I know I held Pfizer for a year or two but I think that was 2016 or 2017. I looked at some of them earlier this year and it's really odd, you'd expect that selling millions of vaccines to the government at probably ridiculous prices would drive the price up and it's been relatively flat and the earnings expectations don't look all that special. If I had to guess the only way you make out well with yours is if a lot more governments start banning or it gets out that people are dying at a huge rate.
But hey, even someone like myself that's less of a risktaker and more of a value finder with stocks makes weird bets from time to time. I bought some Roblox stock this week of all things. I have some Nokia too, that's a WSB thing still I think.
So maybe when they announce you have to get an annual Covid vaccine (100% convinced that's coming) then it will go up. Maybe should one of the vaccines on my watch list. It won't be AstraZeneca anyway.
I could be skewed by most my my young cousins and nephews all being in the Roblox age group and it seems to have stuck really well in the 5-10 age group. They grow out of it and move on, but it will be telling if kids that hit that age keep picking it up. I think it's still the smallest position I have outside of a few tiny options. Maybe it will jump 25% at which time I'll be happy and drop it.