Its TACO Tuesday (Trump always Chickens out)
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Iran does need to figure out what their plans are. That's actually true. Ceasefires HELP Israel-America.
If Iran was serious about trying to win this war, they've have launched a ground invasion into Israel by now and used the ceasefire to prep for it. Since, they haven't, waiting around doing nothing helps Israel-America build up their weapons/defenses and Israel-America has far more resources than Iran so if Iran wanted to "win", they'd have had to press while they had the advantage which was 2 weeks ago when Israel-America was reaching the end of their supplies for their mission. The break has allowed Israel-America to regroup and rearm which is worse for Iran and in that same period of time Iran has hardly improved their position.
Unless Iran is a couple weeks away from a nuke or they're launching a ground invasion of Israel tomorrow, I'm not really sure what their plan is. That's probably what the American leaderships is thinking too. They know that with the time they've had to prepare, if they launch more bombings of Iran then Iran is going to be finished. As of right now Iran has done virtually 0 damage to the USA. Oil prices are lower than when the war started. Iran has seemingly 3 choices: Surrender, Ground Invasion of Israel or get destroyed.
How the fuck is that even possible?!? Israel has:
• Turned Gaza into a parking lot
• Bombed the shit out of Lebanon
• Ensured the formally tied to Iran Assad lost power in Syria
Do they go through Egypt or Jordan? How can they launch a ground invasion when EVERY friendly force around Israel has already been greatly reduced?
Also, power projecting an entire ground war against a country that is a giant fortress (ignoring US support) through at least two countries that are at best indifferent seems incredibly taxing.
Iraq, then Syria/Jordan, then Israel.
Jordan isn't going to agree to that, and invading them as well is a good way to get American boots on the ground. Syria is less risky in that regard but it would be logistical nightmare now that Assad is gone. All this is assuming that Iraq is a cakewalk which is a less than sure bet. There's also the matter of Israel's nukes...
They'd possibly be ambushed by ISIS remnants and local militia in Syria, because they backed Assad previously.
Jordan probably wants no part and tell them to go around and not try to go through them.
And this is all assuming Mossad didn't find out and they aren't under constant airstrikes since they're willing to strike inside Iraq, them travelling under any open ground is a death sentence.
It's all speculative.
What is true though is Iran has a significant man-power advantage. It's their only advantage. The USA would have a hard time rallying the manpower to counter a ground invasion. Best they could do is constant airstrikes and that would have been difficult two-weeks ago because they used a lot of their ammo. Israel is TIRED from Gaza and not in a position to defend a serious ground invasion. They'd get defectors FOR SURE. That's Iran's only advantage. If Iran sits in their bunkers, they're toast. Israel-America has far deeper supply-chains and resources than Iran and sitting around exchanging missiles benefits Israel-America more than it does Iran. There's many factors at play. No one has initiated a ground invasion of a nuclear power. Would Israel nuke them? Would Pakistan nuke in return if Iran is nuked?
All I'm saying is Iran is currently playing into the advantages of Israel-America rather than bringing the war to Israel-America in a manner that is to Iran's advantage. This means Iran loses. There's no winning scenario for Iran if they maintain this missile/drone exchange and if they just sit around waiting. The longer they wait without doing anything themselves the more it helps Israel-America.
Why is Israel-America extending the ceasefire? It's because it helps Israel-America more than it helps Iran.
Their plan is to block the Strait of Hormuz until the economic pain becomes unbearable.
That was a lot more viable before Trump started blockading their shit in retaliation. Maybe Iran can outlast us. Trump's incompetence certainly gave them a head start.
Trump admin wanted the strait shut down to Europe from the start. That was probably the main reason even for doing this war.
You can see it in the leaked Signal chats when they were bombing the Houthis; they said they were opening up shipping for EU and complained they weren't even grateful.
EU continued to be anti-America so now America is holding their 'petrol' and fertilizer hostage until they get in line.
I thought neocons were just stupid, but after reading your post, I'm convinced that you're also delusional.
EU, anti-America? On what planet are you living? You know everyone here despises the regime because it licks American boot, right?
Iran has no navy - and are thousands of miles from israel. How can they launch a ground invasion?
Ground invasion? With what vehicles? There is no way to stage their forces properly. Any concentration would be blown apart by JDAMs long before they could cross a border. This is one of the 30% of your posts that are absolutely insane
Then they need to surrender. They have no leverage.
Their leverage is the cost of actually unseating them from power, which they think America doesn't want to pay. Might be correct