The outlet also says Trump officials reassured Middle East allies that the administration doesn't plan to join the war unless Americans are targeted -- a clear red line that incentivizes Israel to find a way to drag Iran across it, or to fabricate an incident altogether, much as Israel did in 1954's famed "Lavon Affair" and perhaps its 1967 attack on the USS Liberty. An Arab diplomat in deep contact with Iran says the red line is already very much in mind in Tehran: "The Iranians are very careful so far not to do anything that can push the U.S. to get involved."

What's the closest American asset that could get hit? A carrier?