I know theres a lot of "it was the joos!" Out there but hear me out. This one lines up nicely.
Background - Russia has long propped up the Iranian regime as a counter to US/Israel in the region.
Premise - Israel had to neutralize Russias long range strike capabilities before risking a war on Iran.
Tactics - both attacks used infiltration and local drone assembly/attacks. Both totally novel and never seen before in close succession. Timng and tactics indicate the same origin.
Outcome - remaining capabilities moved to far east. Southbound ordinance would have to cross China, which is diplomatically touchy. Reduces but doesn't remove threat to Ukraine.
QED
Is Russia close enough with Iran to commit the destroyed assets to Iran's defense? I don't know about that. Kiev/DC/Tel Aviv are definitely under a single entity though so you are at least half right.
It's not. Russia played both sides of the Middle East conflict until recently. Iran is a useful thorn in the West's side for Russia and China but they're not gonna go to war to protect Iran unless it's a pretext for something else.
China gets a significant amount of energy from Iran. Russia is in a defense pact with Iran. Its way more than just a thorn, its a supplier.
Yes? Krasnodar region is just across the Caspian Sea from Tehran.
But would Russia pull the trigger on it though? That's the question. Russia and Iran are close but are they that close?
Russia and Iran aren't very close.
All the UN sanctions against Iran have been approved by Russia.
They've gotten closer due to the US deep state waging an undeclared war against the both of them though.
Except they just signed a mutual defense pact. See below.
Yes. Iran has been supplying them militarily and economically for decades.
They finalized a defensive pact just a few months ago: https://thegeopolitics.com/iran-russia-20-year-strategic-cooperation-agreement-key-takeaways/
I knew they were developing closer ties. I assume they might become even closer still thanks to being under fire from the same source. You could be right.