I know theres a lot of "it was the joos!" Out there but hear me out. This one lines up nicely.
Background - Russia has long propped up the Iranian regime as a counter to US/Israel in the region.
Premise - Israel had to neutralize Russias long range strike capabilities before risking a war on Iran.
Tactics - both attacks used infiltration and local drone assembly/attacks. Both totally novel and never seen before in close succession. Timng and tactics indicate the same origin.
Outcome - remaining capabilities moved to far east. Southbound ordinance would have to cross China, which is diplomatically touchy. Reduces but doesn't remove threat to Ukraine.
QED
It's not. Russia played both sides of the Middle East conflict until recently. Iran is a useful thorn in the West's side for Russia and China but they're not gonna go to war to protect Iran unless it's a pretext for something else.
China gets a significant amount of energy from Iran. Russia is in a defense pact with Iran. Its way more than just a thorn, its a supplier.