Doesn't matter. The midterms clearly showed that the GOP has taken the Dems up on their offer to become house niggers in exchange for the privilege of continuing to feed at the government trough. They'll hype up all the "swing" states, which aren't really swing states if they go for the same side every fucking time due to fraud.
Trump is benefiting from not being in the news cycle and basically shutting the fuck up by virtue of the fact that he was totally deplatformed and nobody cares what he posts on Truth Social or his NFT sale. As soon as Trump starts talking again, everyone who voted against him in 2024 will remember why, and they'll vote against him again.
People didn't vote for Biden in 2020 because they thought he was good. He was senile back then, too. They voted for him because they hated Trump and thought Trump was "unpresidential" and boorish and crude and vulgar. Women voted against Trump by wide margins. Maybe they have temporarily forgotten, but they'll remember quick enough once the primaries heat up. Trump has done nothing to rehabilitate himself either. He's still saying dumb shit, he knifed multiple good republicans in the back after he tanked the Right in numerous key elections a few months ago, and his big move since he announced was to slang NFTs.
dekachins didn't analyze the betting market chart very closely. Trump went from 10% to 30% and 2x Biden after announcing his intention to run and nobody was close until the Mar-a-Lago raid.
This is temporary because people are only hearing the anti-Trump news, nobody is hearing him say the FBI took Melania's underwear, or whatever, and it'll recover as nothing happens (as usual with Trump 'scandals').
DeSantis didn't even break Harris' high and basically replaced her as the 'credible other' choice until the classified docs and the news constantly chanting that Trump is finished this time for sure. His high chance now is due to people believing it'll be illegal for Trump to be elected again, which is unlikely since he meets all the Constitution requirements.
The event that crashed Trump's numbers and skyrocketed DeSantis was the November election, not the maralago raid. You can see very clearly the event was November, not the August 8 raid. Trump's numbers dumped after November 8.
Trump's candidates lost. Trump went online after and leveled nasty criticism at I believe 2 popular republicans who he for whatever reason saw as disloyal. The losses + how he reacted to it is why Trump's numbers did so badly.
You see that big ~15% mountain eroding from July? That corresponds to Mar-A-Lago and slightly before that the news cycle saying Trump would be charged in Jan 6 and not be able to run again.
This is a bigger change than the election, which is quickening the trend and which you're also misinterpreting; it wasn't the loss of his candidates or his demeanor it was the clearly ongoing cheating by Democrats. This is the other big factor where if Democrats can continue cheating at 2020 levels Trump will lose and in a fair election he'll win.
You didn't actually disagree with anything I said. And to spell it out for you, what jan6, the raid, and the cheating have in common is 'trump won't be allowed to win' - that's why he's tanked in the betting market and not in polls.
Fuck all of the polls regardless of where it comes from!
The polls are primarily a tool to manipulate public opinion not measure it.
All the final polls in 2022 said that Laxalt wins NV Senate, Dr. Oz wins PA Senate and that Tim Michels wins WI governor.
Anyone can see that none of this ever happened!
All of the left's polls will pump Trump's numbers up artificially because they want him to be nominated again. He is the easiest candidate for them to beat. They want to face him because he supercharges Dem turnout. He gets out the Dem vote like no one else can. They despise him more than any person that has ever existed on Earth. Why the fuck would you nominate this guy again?
Hearing Trumpers say the establishment is afraid of him makes me want to cringe and scream.
Trump is a joke to the establishment. They are objectively stronger at the end of his term than they were at the beginning of his term. He hired only neocons and establishment shills as his entire administration. They suffocated his policy agenda from the inside. Trump has learned nothing from his mistakes and he refuses to accept that he even made any mistakes.
The other sad part is that there are no reputable objective polls these days.
Trafalgar completely shit the bed. They said that races like CO Senate and VT Senate would be close. It was not even within 10 points. What a joke.
Richard Baris will also push fake pro Trump polls because he is an open Trump cultist and wants nothing more than Trump winning the nomination again.
Richard Baris has lost his fucking mind recently and has gotten every single swing state call wrong in 2022. He is also obsessed that John Duarte won a house district in CA and that his fat friend Giglio lost to Duarte in a primary. Sad to see the most talented pollster turn into this clownfire.
They beat Trump when he was an incumbent. They can easily do it again in 2024 since he is weaker and has lost more support than ever before.
Trump will NEVER win a national election again!
I pray the base stops being retarded and accepts reality.
Worst case scenario, we can still win one house of Congress if DeSantis is the nominee and Trump like a jackass runs third party.
Trump as the nominee for 2024 at the topline sinks everyone downballot in swing states and in Texas in particular.
Trump and Cruz potentially on the Texas 2024 ballot at the same time is nightmare fuel. It could be the worst GOP performance in Texas in 32 years. Blexas could even happen in this scenario.
Objectively Trump and Cruz both had the worst GOP performance in Texas in 30 years.
Cruz had the worst Senate GOP Texas performance in 2018 while Trump had the worst Presidential Texas performance in 2020. So far they have never been on a ticket together.
Cruz barely won in 2018 against Beto. He luckily then had Gov Greg Abbott to carry him to victory at the top of the ballot.
Trump will certainly underperform Cruz in 2024 in Texas so he won't be carrying shit.
I fear Trump at the top of the ballot in 2024 might be enough to sink Cruz if the Dems run a strong candidate who appeals to Dallas Fort Worth squishy center right suburban voters. Many of these DFW suburb voters generally voted for Biden in 2020 but they still voted for Cornyn. Will they vote for Cruz if they see their hated nemesis Trump at the topline once again? Tough to say
Looks like the Dems will run Collin Alred or Scott Kelly against Ted Cruz. Allred is unfortunately decently regarded in DFW.
Scott Kelly is a carpetbagger astronaut from Colorado. It will be a tougher battle against Allred. The hilarious part is that I really hope the Dems nominate Beto again for Senate. Cruz might only be safe against the current Beto. Beto has gotten so much weaker since 2018 ever since he has gone along to lose Texas governor in 2022.
People who lose elections perform poorly in future elections generally.
Even if we get actual Great Depression 2.0 in June of 2024, Trump will still lose to the Dem nominee. I am certain that even the worst Dem 2024 candidate Harris sadly still beats Trump by the skin of her teeth.
Trump is done. He cannot win again. He has lost support since 2020. He cannot grow his coalition.
The Trump 2024ers are ramming their head into a wall and fucking us all over their undeserved devotion to one flawed man.
Trump is uniquely polarizing and while there are plenty of people who will only vote for him, there are also a significant number of dignity boomers and suicidally-retarded libertarians who will never vote for him.
Why are you guys this unhealthily attached to this one flawed man?
You Trump 2024ers are acting like not being to run Trump again to lose in 2024 is an unacceptable attack on your entire way of life.
I just want a candidate who has an actual chance to win 2024. You guys insist that the guy who supercharges Dem turnout is the only option. Just fucking insane.
I am certain we have 90+ percent of the same political positions on key issues such as stopping mass immigration, protecting the 1st and 2nd amendment, protecting individual medical choice regarding the vaxes as well as stopping the spread of globalism and wokeness.
We merely disagree on who should be the 2024 nominee.
I just want someone who can actually win a general election in 2024.
For that you are going to tell me to fuck off?
This is what I meant by Trump cultism.
The issues matter more than one man.
For you to get personally aggrieved over me not wanting Trump 2024 speaks volumes on why the right will continue to fail.
I'm just tired of people like him constantly trying to imply the same shit over and over again just because he thinks accelerationism would actually work (spoiler: it will fail massively)
Doesn't matter. The midterms clearly showed that the GOP has taken the Dems up on their offer to become house niggers in exchange for the privilege of continuing to feed at the government trough. They'll hype up all the "swing" states, which aren't really swing states if they go for the same side every fucking time due to fraud.
Desantis has much better odds: https://electionbettingodds.com/President2024.html#chart
Trump is benefiting from not being in the news cycle and basically shutting the fuck up by virtue of the fact that he was totally deplatformed and nobody cares what he posts on Truth Social or his NFT sale. As soon as Trump starts talking again, everyone who voted against him in 2024 will remember why, and they'll vote against him again.
You know that shithead wine mom governor of California Gavin Newsom? We tried a recall election against him. At one point it was neck-and-neck when people were mad at Newsom, but then all the Democrats re-asserted their partisanship and came home to vote for the effete wine merchant. The same thing would happen with Biden, here.
People didn't vote for Biden in 2020 because they thought he was good. He was senile back then, too. They voted for him because they hated Trump and thought Trump was "unpresidential" and boorish and crude and vulgar. Women voted against Trump by wide margins. Maybe they have temporarily forgotten, but they'll remember quick enough once the primaries heat up. Trump has done nothing to rehabilitate himself either. He's still saying dumb shit, he knifed multiple good republicans in the back after he tanked the Right in numerous key elections a few months ago, and his big move since he announced was to slang NFTs.
dekachins didn't analyze the betting market chart very closely. Trump went from 10% to 30% and 2x Biden after announcing his intention to run and nobody was close until the Mar-a-Lago raid.
This is temporary because people are only hearing the anti-Trump news, nobody is hearing him say the FBI took Melania's underwear, or whatever, and it'll recover as nothing happens (as usual with Trump 'scandals').
DeSantis didn't even break Harris' high and basically replaced her as the 'credible other' choice until the classified docs and the news constantly chanting that Trump is finished this time for sure. His high chance now is due to people believing it'll be illegal for Trump to be elected again, which is unlikely since he meets all the Constitution requirements.
The event that crashed Trump's numbers and skyrocketed DeSantis was the November election, not the maralago raid. You can see very clearly the event was November, not the August 8 raid. Trump's numbers dumped after November 8.
Trump's candidates lost. Trump went online after and leveled nasty criticism at I believe 2 popular republicans who he for whatever reason saw as disloyal. The losses + how he reacted to it is why Trump's numbers did so badly.
You see that big ~15% mountain eroding from July? That corresponds to Mar-A-Lago and slightly before that the news cycle saying Trump would be charged in Jan 6 and not be able to run again.
This is a bigger change than the election, which is quickening the trend and which you're also misinterpreting; it wasn't the loss of his candidates or his demeanor it was the clearly ongoing cheating by Democrats. This is the other big factor where if Democrats can continue cheating at 2020 levels Trump will lose and in a fair election he'll win.
June 23, 2022 = 40.3% this was his peak. It fell steadily from there.
The Mar-a-lago raid was August 8, 2022. Trump was at 32%. He went up. not down, after the raid, peaking at 33.8% August 30, 2022.
He peaked again at 34% on November 8, then dumped to 15.7% November 10.
On the eve of the election, Trump was at the same level he was after the raid. Then within a couple days he dumped 18%.
You didn't actually disagree with anything I said. And to spell it out for you, what jan6, the raid, and the cheating have in common is 'trump won't be allowed to win' - that's why he's tanked in the betting market and not in polls.
Fuck all of the polls regardless of where it comes from!
The polls are primarily a tool to manipulate public opinion not measure it.
All the final polls in 2022 said that Laxalt wins NV Senate, Dr. Oz wins PA Senate and that Tim Michels wins WI governor.
Anyone can see that none of this ever happened!
All of the left's polls will pump Trump's numbers up artificially because they want him to be nominated again. He is the easiest candidate for them to beat. They want to face him because he supercharges Dem turnout. He gets out the Dem vote like no one else can. They despise him more than any person that has ever existed on Earth. Why the fuck would you nominate this guy again?
Hearing Trumpers say the establishment is afraid of him makes me want to cringe and scream.
Trump is a joke to the establishment. They are objectively stronger at the end of his term than they were at the beginning of his term. He hired only neocons and establishment shills as his entire administration. They suffocated his policy agenda from the inside. Trump has learned nothing from his mistakes and he refuses to accept that he even made any mistakes.
The other sad part is that there are no reputable objective polls these days.
Trafalgar completely shit the bed. They said that races like CO Senate and VT Senate would be close. It was not even within 10 points. What a joke.
Richard Baris will also push fake pro Trump polls because he is an open Trump cultist and wants nothing more than Trump winning the nomination again.
Richard Baris has lost his fucking mind recently and has gotten every single swing state call wrong in 2022. He is also obsessed that John Duarte won a house district in CA and that his fat friend Giglio lost to Duarte in a primary. Sad to see the most talented pollster turn into this clownfire.
They beat Trump when he was an incumbent. They can easily do it again in 2024 since he is weaker and has lost more support than ever before.
Trump will NEVER win a national election again!
I pray the base stops being retarded and accepts reality.
Worst case scenario, we can still win one house of Congress if DeSantis is the nominee and Trump like a jackass runs third party.
Trump as the nominee for 2024 at the topline sinks everyone downballot in swing states and in Texas in particular.
Trump and Cruz potentially on the Texas 2024 ballot at the same time is nightmare fuel. It could be the worst GOP performance in Texas in 32 years. Blexas could even happen in this scenario.
Hard to say.
Objectively Trump and Cruz both had the worst GOP performance in Texas in 30 years.
Cruz had the worst Senate GOP Texas performance in 2018 while Trump had the worst Presidential Texas performance in 2020. So far they have never been on a ticket together.
Cruz barely won in 2018 against Beto. He luckily then had Gov Greg Abbott to carry him to victory at the top of the ballot.
Trump will certainly underperform Cruz in 2024 in Texas so he won't be carrying shit.
I fear Trump at the top of the ballot in 2024 might be enough to sink Cruz if the Dems run a strong candidate who appeals to Dallas Fort Worth squishy center right suburban voters. Many of these DFW suburb voters generally voted for Biden in 2020 but they still voted for Cornyn. Will they vote for Cruz if they see their hated nemesis Trump at the topline once again? Tough to say
Looks like the Dems will run Collin Alred or Scott Kelly against Ted Cruz. Allred is unfortunately decently regarded in DFW.
Scott Kelly is a carpetbagger astronaut from Colorado. It will be a tougher battle against Allred. The hilarious part is that I really hope the Dems nominate Beto again for Senate. Cruz might only be safe against the current Beto. Beto has gotten so much weaker since 2018 ever since he has gone along to lose Texas governor in 2022.
People who lose elections perform poorly in future elections generally.
Even if we get actual Great Depression 2.0 in June of 2024, Trump will still lose to the Dem nominee. I am certain that even the worst Dem 2024 candidate Harris sadly still beats Trump by the skin of her teeth.
Trump is done. He cannot win again. He has lost support since 2020. He cannot grow his coalition.
The Trump 2024ers are ramming their head into a wall and fucking us all over their undeserved devotion to one flawed man.
Harris will do relatively awful compared to any other Dem but TDS still sadly gets her like an electoral win of 270 evs to 268 evs.
It will be razor thin close but I bet she still wins.
Trump is uniquely polarizing and while there are plenty of people who will only vote for him, there are also a significant number of dignity boomers and suicidally-retarded libertarians who will never vote for him.
There are vastly more never Trumpers compared to the amount of cultists who will only vote for Trump.
Not running Trump is clearly the better option.
Do not reply to me about politics ever again.
Why are you guys this unhealthily attached to this one flawed man?
You Trump 2024ers are acting like not being to run Trump again to lose in 2024 is an unacceptable attack on your entire way of life.
I just want a candidate who has an actual chance to win 2024. You guys insist that the guy who supercharges Dem turnout is the only option. Just fucking insane.
Fuck off, retard.
You are a Trump cultist. Sad
I will keep telling you to go fuck yourself every time you snark at me about politics so just save yourself the trouble now.
I am certain we have 90+ percent of the same political positions on key issues such as stopping mass immigration, protecting the 1st and 2nd amendment, protecting individual medical choice regarding the vaxes as well as stopping the spread of globalism and wokeness.
We merely disagree on who should be the 2024 nominee.
I just want someone who can actually win a general election in 2024.
For that you are going to tell me to fuck off?
This is what I meant by Trump cultism.
The issues matter more than one man.
For you to get personally aggrieved over me not wanting Trump 2024 speaks volumes on why the right will continue to fail.
Yeah, he had a "clear lead" last time too...right up until 3 hours after the polls were supposed to close.
Poll doesn't mean shit. As long as we have mail in, electronic, and illegals voting, it does not matter what people actually think.
It's not the vote that counts, it's who counts the votes.
Stop complaining and fedpost IRL then
You will just call him a false flag lmao
I'm just tired of people like him constantly trying to imply the same shit over and over again just because he thinks accelerationism would actually work (spoiler: it will fail massively)