dekachins didn't analyze the betting market chart very closely. Trump went from 10% to 30% and 2x Biden after announcing his intention to run and nobody was close until the Mar-a-Lago raid.
This is temporary because people are only hearing the anti-Trump news, nobody is hearing him say the FBI took Melania's underwear, or whatever, and it'll recover as nothing happens (as usual with Trump 'scandals').
DeSantis didn't even break Harris' high and basically replaced her as the 'credible other' choice until the classified docs and the news constantly chanting that Trump is finished this time for sure. His high chance now is due to people believing it'll be illegal for Trump to be elected again, which is unlikely since he meets all the Constitution requirements.
The event that crashed Trump's numbers and skyrocketed DeSantis was the November election, not the maralago raid. You can see very clearly the event was November, not the August 8 raid. Trump's numbers dumped after November 8.
Trump's candidates lost. Trump went online after and leveled nasty criticism at I believe 2 popular republicans who he for whatever reason saw as disloyal. The losses + how he reacted to it is why Trump's numbers did so badly.
You see that big ~15% mountain eroding from July? That corresponds to Mar-A-Lago and slightly before that the news cycle saying Trump would be charged in Jan 6 and not be able to run again.
This is a bigger change than the election, which is quickening the trend and which you're also misinterpreting; it wasn't the loss of his candidates or his demeanor it was the clearly ongoing cheating by Democrats. This is the other big factor where if Democrats can continue cheating at 2020 levels Trump will lose and in a fair election he'll win.
You didn't actually disagree with anything I said. And to spell it out for you, what jan6, the raid, and the cheating have in common is 'trump won't be allowed to win' - that's why he's tanked in the betting market and not in polls.
dekachins didn't analyze the betting market chart very closely. Trump went from 10% to 30% and 2x Biden after announcing his intention to run and nobody was close until the Mar-a-Lago raid.
This is temporary because people are only hearing the anti-Trump news, nobody is hearing him say the FBI took Melania's underwear, or whatever, and it'll recover as nothing happens (as usual with Trump 'scandals').
DeSantis didn't even break Harris' high and basically replaced her as the 'credible other' choice until the classified docs and the news constantly chanting that Trump is finished this time for sure. His high chance now is due to people believing it'll be illegal for Trump to be elected again, which is unlikely since he meets all the Constitution requirements.
The event that crashed Trump's numbers and skyrocketed DeSantis was the November election, not the maralago raid. You can see very clearly the event was November, not the August 8 raid. Trump's numbers dumped after November 8.
Trump's candidates lost. Trump went online after and leveled nasty criticism at I believe 2 popular republicans who he for whatever reason saw as disloyal. The losses + how he reacted to it is why Trump's numbers did so badly.
You see that big ~15% mountain eroding from July? That corresponds to Mar-A-Lago and slightly before that the news cycle saying Trump would be charged in Jan 6 and not be able to run again.
This is a bigger change than the election, which is quickening the trend and which you're also misinterpreting; it wasn't the loss of his candidates or his demeanor it was the clearly ongoing cheating by Democrats. This is the other big factor where if Democrats can continue cheating at 2020 levels Trump will lose and in a fair election he'll win.
June 23, 2022 = 40.3% this was his peak. It fell steadily from there.
The Mar-a-lago raid was August 8, 2022. Trump was at 32%. He went up. not down, after the raid, peaking at 33.8% August 30, 2022.
He peaked again at 34% on November 8, then dumped to 15.7% November 10.
On the eve of the election, Trump was at the same level he was after the raid. Then within a couple days he dumped 18%.
You didn't actually disagree with anything I said. And to spell it out for you, what jan6, the raid, and the cheating have in common is 'trump won't be allowed to win' - that's why he's tanked in the betting market and not in polls.